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Eric Lindquist (Lindy) is bringing a Junior Caminero (TB) walk prop into Tuesday's card that he calls close to a lock, on the heels of going 4-1 on Monday's video, a card he says should have been 5-0. Sonny Gray fell one strikeout shy of his prop for Boston, turning a clean sweep into a small net loss even after three straight winning days before it. Zoomed out, it doesn't matter much: Lindy is up over 21 units in home run props alone this season and over 45 units overall, a number that cratered in a rough July and has been climbing back since August started. That's the frame he brings into Tuesday's full card, one he says has some real "bangers" on it, from the Caminero walk prop to a strikeout ladder he's building rung by rung on a White Sox arm that's been money for him all July.
One vocabulary note, because it changes how you read this: a lean is a game Lindy likes but hasn't bet, an official play is one he fired with a price and a size, and the sizing (quarter unit, half unit, or an explicit "played it heavy") tells you the conviction. A pass is a pass — don't read analysis into a game he explicitly says he's staying off.
Junior Caminero — one of the featured players on today's board.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's Tuesday card is built around one prop he's calling close to a lock, a strikeout ladder, and two home run plays. His headline bet is Junior Caminero (TB) to draw a walk against Mason Barnett (ATH), priced at +155 to +160 and "played heavy." He's also back on a Sean Burke (CWS) strikeout ladder against the Reds (over 6.5 at +142, over 7.5 at +265, plus a small piece on the 8.5 rung), Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) and Taylor Ward (SEA) home runs in the Mariners-Yankees game, Hunter Goodman (COL) to homer against a lefty if the number carries a four handle, Walker Buehler (SD) over 4.5 strikeouts, and his repeat winner, the Miami Marlins first five innings against Paul Skenes, now 3-for-3 this season. The full breakdown of every play, the games he passed on, and OddsShopper's own live value board for Tuesday are below.
Watch The Video
Lindy builds this card game by game, checking prices across books before he sizes anything and calling out exactly which spots on the board he's staying off. Watch it in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Riding The Marlins First Five Again, Plus A Cheap Look At Jakob Marsee
Lindy is skipping Guardians-Tigers entirely, calling Detroit's lineup a parade of pinch-hit risk against Tanner Bibee, and moving straight to a bet he's now made three times in a row. The Miami Marlins first five innings against Paul Skenes and the Pirates has hit in all three previous tries, and he's not getting off it Tuesday, taking it near even money at FanDuel (-101 at DraftKings). Skenes is sitting on close to a 4.00 ERA over his last two months with his velocity down from 98 to 96, while Eury Pérez (MIA) is throwing a fastball-changeup combination Lindy called the best on the entire board.
He's also taking a cheap look at Jakob Marsee (MIA), staking roughly 0.4 units combined across Marsee's 1.5 total bases, a home run, and a bet to record a hit, priced at -115. The case leans on lineup shuffling: Kyle Stowers (MIA) is banged up with a hamstring injury, and if Miami keeps its lefty bats intact against Skenes, Marsee is the most likely candidate to slide into the leadoff spot ahead of Xavier Edwards (MIA).
A Weather-Soaked Lean In Washington
Lindy likes CJ Abrams (WSH) to go deep against Shota Imanaga (CHC), a lefty-on-lefty matchup priced at +500, and says the Nationals lineup looks "nuclear" against a Cubs starter who's given up plenty of power to both sides this year. But a 58% chance of rain at first pitch is enough to keep this in the lean bucket rather than a fired play; he wants to see the radar in the morning before deciding whether an in-game delay changes the math.
Three Yankees Bats Against Bryan Woo, And Taylor Ward Firing Right Back
Bryan Woo (SEA) has actually been bad on the road, and Lindy was eyeing a trio of short-priced Yankees home run bets off it: Trent Grisham (NYY), Ben Rice (NYY) and Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY). Garcia was his favorite of the three, and he ended up firing that one. On the other side of the same game, he's also on Taylor Ward (SEA) over 1.5 home runs against Ryan Weathers (NYY). Ward will be leading off, he's running a 133 wRC+ against left-handed pitching this season, and he strikes out in under 20% of his at-bats against lefties, a combination Lindy called "kind of in love with this play" territory against a pitcher who misses plenty of bats but not Ward's.
Two Leans He's Not Ready To Fire
Dylan Cease (TOR) gets a lean over 7.5 strikeouts against a Red Sox team that's cooled from a 22% strikeout rate against righties down to roughly 20%, still the best pitcher on the board in Lindy's book even against a hot Boston lineup. Two games later, the Mets moneyline against the Braves is also just a lean: New York swept the Guardians and then blew the game open in the first inning against Atlanta over the weekend, but Lindy isn't ready to put money on Martín Pérez (ATL) getting torched again.
Baltimore's First Five Lean, And Why Bailey Ober Travels Well
The Baltimore Orioles first five against the Twins is a lean, built on Brandon Young (BAL) being the more proven arm of the two right now. The interesting note is on the other side: Bailey Ober (MIN) doesn't rack up strikeouts, but Lindy pointed out he's moving out of Baltimore, where lefty power plays up, and into Target Field, where it's notoriously hard to get a ball over the wall in right unless you're one of the league's biggest sluggers. That park shift is why he's not fading Ober even without the strikeout numbers to back it.
Back On The Sean Burke Strikeout Ladder
This is the most involved play of the card. Sean Burke (CWS) posted a 38.1% strikeout rate in July, the best mark on the board this month, running a knuckle-curve and fastball combination that's been generating whiff rates north of 27%. He gets a Reds lineup that's struck out at a 28%-plus clip against right-handed pitching since the trade deadline, with Cincinnati now without Nick Lodolo (CIN) on the mound and a righty-heavy order in front of Burke. Lindy built a three-rung ladder: over 6.5 strikeouts at +142 for 0.3 units, over 7.5 at +265 for 0.2 units, and a smaller piece on the top rung, over 8.5 strikeouts, for 0.1 units. He stayed off Burke his last time out and says he feels sharp about that call, but he's back on the train Tuesday.
The Under He Loves But Won't Bet
Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is a pitcher Lindy has backed for years, and the market has him priced at -130 (Bet365) on the under of his outs, a number he calls the first "best available play" he can remember being an under on Sánchez. He's allowing more baserunners and working into deeper counts than earlier in the season, when he ran a 50-plus inning scoreless streak. The problem is the opponent: the Cardinals strike out at the second-lowest rate in baseball against left-handed pitching, and Lindy would rather deploy that money somewhere else on the card than fight that matchup, even against a pitcher he trusts.
Passing On Cody Bradford, And A Feint Toward Houston
Cody Bradford (TEX) no-hit San Francisco into the fifth inning his last time out, and the Angels have struck out at one of the highest rates in baseball against lefties over the last two months. Lindy leans toward Bradford's strikeout over but ultimately wants more information before he'll bet it, calling the result against the Giants more a product of a filthy Giants lineup than Bradford's true form. He's also floating a Houston first five against the Giants as "a little carrot to dangle," but says directly he never pulled the trigger on it, in part because the hold on that market is running close to 6%.
Hunter Goodman's Home Run Number, If It Has A Four In Front
Hunter Goodman (COL) has 30-plus home runs this season and draws a lefty, Mitch Bratt (ARI), who has allowed almost nothing but soft, high-launch contact all year, the kind of profile Lindy says catches up to a pitcher eventually. FanDuel opened this at +300, well shy of where Lindy has the number himself; he wants anything with a four-handle in front of it before he'll take it, closer to where DraftKings opened. It's a quarter-unit play, and he's staying off the Diamondbacks' own home run market against Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) since the price there is too short to interest him.
Walker Buehler's Strikeout Number Against A Lefty-Heavy Brewers Lineup
Walker Buehler (SD) is on the board over 4.5 strikeouts at +102 against a Milwaukee lineup stacked with left-handed bats (Garrett Mitchell, Christian Yelich and others) that Lindy calls a sneaky good strikeout matchup for a pitcher running reverse splits this year. He's staying off Buehler's alternate outs prop, where the number ran to -180, calling that price too short relative to the strikeout side.
The Best Play Of The Night He Refuses To Call A Lock
Rays third baseman Junior Caminero (TB) is hitting his way into the AL MVP conversation, but Lindy's headline play targets the pitcher across from him rather than the bat itself. Mason Barnett (ATH) is running an 11.4% walk rate against lefties and 11.7% against righties, and Caminero himself draws a walk at a 12.5% clip. The opening numbers on Junior Caminero to draw a walk were +155 (Bet365) and +160 (Fanatics), and Lindy says the honest number should be closer to a coin flip. "This should technically go in the lock category," he said on the show, only holding back the label because it's a walk prop rather than a swing-and-hit outcome. He played it heavy anyway.
Closing With Blake Snell's Return And An Andy Pagés Lean
Michael Wacha (KC) and Blake Snell (LAD) close out the night, with Snell making his return from a three-month elbow injury after ramping up through 73 pitches in the minors. Lindy is leaning toward Andy Pagés (LAD) to go deep against Wacha, priced well into plus money against a pitcher running heavy reverse splits. The read is specific: avoid Wacha's sinker, which is the only pitch in his arsenal Pagés hasn't been lofting, and sit on anything else for a fly ball with real carry.
Where OddsShopper's Board Finds Value Lindy Didn't Touch
Lindy's card leans on strikeout ladders and home run props, so it leaves ground uncovered elsewhere on Tuesday's board. OddsShopper's own de-vigged numbers separately flag value in games and markets he never got to, worth shopping on their own terms.
| Player | Market | Best Price | Fair Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) | Under 2.5 Strikeouts | +132 (Bet365) | +112 | +9.5% |
| Otto Lopez (MIA) | Under 0.5 Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +170 | +9.2% |
| José Fermín (STL) | Under 0.5 Hits | +150 (Bet365) | +133 | +7.3% |
| Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | Under 0.5 Hits | +182 (Bet365) | +163 | +7.2% |
| Cole Young (SEA) | Under 0.5 Hits | +170 (Bet365) | +157 | +5.0% |
| Alejandro Kirk (TOR) | Under 0.5 Hits | +182 (Bet365) | +169 | +4.9% |
The single best de-vigged edge on the board is Tomoyuki Sugano (COL) under 2.5 strikeouts at +132 (Bet365), a fair price of +112 against a takeable +132, roughly a 9.5% edge, in the exact game Lindy is attacking from the Hunter Goodman home run side instead. Shop the full contact-market board on the live player hits screen before you take a number, and check DraftKings' current sign-up offer — how to claim it — on the DraftKings promo code page before you touch the Goodman home run number elsewhere.
Tuesday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Price | Size |
|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Marlins | First Five Innings Vs. Pirates | Even money (FanDuel) / -101 (DK) | Standard play |
| Jakob Marsee (MIA) | 1.5 Total Bases / HR / Record A Hit | -115 on the hit prop | 0.4 units combined |
| Luis Garcia Jr. (NYY) | Home Run Vs. Bryan Woo | Short price | Standard play |
| Taylor Ward (SEA) | Over 1.5 Home Runs | Unpriced on air | Standard play |
| Sean Burke (CWS) | Strikeout Ladder (6.5 / 7.5 / 8.5+) | +142 / +265 / unpriced on air | 0.3u / 0.2u / 0.1u |
| Hunter Goodman (COL) | Home Run Vs. Mitch Bratt | Four-handle target (FanDuel opened +300) | Quarter unit |
| Walker Buehler (SD) | Over 4.5 Strikeouts | +102 | Standard play |
| Junior Caminero (TB) | To Draw A Walk | +155 (Bet365) / +160 (Fanatics) | Heavy |
How To Read The Sean Burke Ladder: A Worked Example
Take the Sean Burke ladder as a worked example of how Lindy actually sizes a multi-rung play. He didn't put equal money on every leg. The first rung, over 6.5 strikeouts at +142, gets the largest stake at 0.3 units because it's the most likely outcome given Burke's 38.1% July strikeout rate. The second rung, over 7.5 at +265, drops to 0.2 units, a real step down in probability even with a fatter price attached. The third rung, over 8.5 strikeouts, gets the smallest stake of all, a lottery-ticket-sized bet on Burke's best-case outcome against a Reds lineup that's struck out at a 28%-plus clip against righties since the trade deadline. That's the same logic behind every ladder on this card: size shrinks as the outcome gets less likely, never the other way around.
Get These Numbers Before They Move
Prices move fast between now and first pitch. Shop Sean Burke's ladder and Walker Buehler's strikeout number on the OddsShopper MLB strikeout board, price the Marlins first five and Baltimore's first five lean on the runline screen, and run any multi-leg version of Tuesday's card through the Parlay Builder so every leg still has to clear on its own. If you're carrying a bonus bet into tonight's card, run it through the free bet converter before you burn it on a plain favorite, and follow Lindy's card on Tails to see exactly what he fires each day.
Get 25% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro with code LINDY25.
OddsShopper Pro also carries a 7-day free trial, and it's the same odds screen Lindy uses to shop DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365 against each other before he sizes a single play.
