Eric Lindquist closed out the MLB regular season with a 17-game getaway-day slate on "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks," and the card he built off it split cleanly along one line: teams still fighting for playoff position get real pitching, and teams already locked in (or locked out) get bullpen games and watered-down lineups. Milwaukee had the one seed wrapped up before first pitch, San Diego had already clinched, and a handful of contenders, the Phillies, the Rangers, the White Sox, still had jobs to finish. Every one of his six official plays tonight traces back to which side of that line a team landed on, including the longshot at the bottom of the card that he built the whole show around.
Jackson Jobe — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's final regular-season card comes down to six official plays: Jackson Jobe (DET) over 5.5 strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates, Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) under 18.5 outs against the Tampa Bay Rays, Tristan Peters (CWS) to hit multiple home runs (2+) at 225-1 against the Colorado Rockies, Robert Gasser (MIL) over 4.5 strikeouts at -115 against the St. Louis Cardinals, Joe Ryan (MIN) under 6.5 strikeouts at -138 against the Texas Rangers, and a hard-capped Tarik Skubal (LAD) under 7.5 strikeouts against the San Francisco Giants. He also talked through several bigger spots he never fired, including an Orioles-Yankees over lean, a Kansas City moneyline lean, and a Diamondbacks earned-runs number he's still undecided on. The full breakdown of the six plays, plus everything he passed on, is below.
Watch: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks
Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel, working through the season-ending 17-game slate matchup by matchup.
The Card At A Glance
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Jackson Jobe (DET) | Over 5.5 strikeouts | No price stated on air |
| Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) | Under 18.5 outs | No price stated on air |
| Tristan Peters (CWS) | 2+ home runs (multi-homer) | 225-1 (FanDuel) |
| Robert Gasser (MIL) | Over 4.5 strikeouts | -115, ~0.35 units |
| Joe Ryan (MIN) | Under 6.5 strikeouts | -138 (FanDuel) |
| Tarik Skubal (LAD) | Under 7.5 strikeouts | No price stated on air |
The standout number on the board is the 225-1 on Tristan Peters, the only pure power play of the six and the one Lindy flagged before he'd even named a single game tonight.
There were bigger spots he passed on, too: an Orioles-Yankees over 6.5 total he called "close to playing" but never fired, a Kansas City moneyline lean in the Guardians-Royals spoiler game, a Reid Detmers (LAA) strikeout under he talked himself out of, and a Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) earned-runs number, a recurring bit on this show, he left for his written recap instead. Those stay leans, not plays. This recap only credits him with what he actually fired.
Jackson Jobe Opens The Card As The First Official Play
Lindy started the show with the one pitcher he trusts most to actually be stretched out on the last day of the year: Jackson Jobe (DET), who he called one of the most talented young arms in the game and said is "looked great the last few" starts, riding eight and nine strikeouts in his last two outings. The matchup helps his case rather than hurting it. Pittsburgh is a road team with nothing left to play for, the kind of lineup Lindy expects to be trotted out light on Friday before getting deeper on the weekend, and Detroit's 63-degree end-of-September air is textbook pitcher's weather. "I like Jobe here for five and a half," he said, calling it an appealing number against a Pirates order that strikes out even when it's hitting for power. Jackson Jobe (DET) over 5.5 strikeouts against the Pittsburgh Pirates; no price stated on air, check the live number before you follow it.
Cristopher Sánchez Gets A Pesky Lineup, Not A Soft One
From a watered-down road team to the opposite problem: Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) is pitching for a Phillies team that still has real stakes, needing to win two of three to hold a tiebreaker over Arizona, against a Tampa Bay lineup that Lindy flagged as the trap in this game. The Rays have nothing to play for beyond stat padding, but he doesn't think that makes them easy outs. "This is still a pesky team that doesn't strike out a lot," he said, and Sánchez himself isn't quite the same weapon he was earlier in the year: "not the mega nuclear changeup that we've seen in days of yore," though still elite. The bigger factor is next week. Philadelphia will likely want Sánchez rested and ready for an early playoff turn, so Lindy isn't expecting a 100-105-pitch workload no matter how the lineup behaves. Cristopher Sánchez (PHI) under 18.5 outs against the Tampa Bay Rays; no price stated on air, check the live number before you follow it.
Tristan Peters Is The Longshot Lindy Built The Whole Card Around
This is the pick Lindy teased at the top of the show as "a very random name to throw out there" for the season's last home run play, and it's built on one of the most lopsided platoon splits he's found all year. Colorado starter Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed a .282 ISO to lefties this season against just a 15.3% strikeout rate, numbers Lindy has hammered on this show repeatedly, and while Sugano has tightened up against lefties over the last month, the White Sox lineup gives him a fresh problem: Tristan Peters (CWS), who Lindy expects locked into the six-hole against a right-hander now that Chicago has clinched. The White Sox still have business to finish this weekend even with the champagne already flowing in the clubhouse, and Lindy landed a phenomenal number on FanDuel for it. "Start with Tristan Peters home run," he said, naming the multi-homer ("double dong") number he actually fired. Tristan Peters (CWS) to hit multiple home runs (2+) against the Colorado Rockies, 225-1 on FanDuel.
Robert Gasser Gets To Eat Because Nobody Else On The Card Does
Where the first three plays lean on a soft opponent or a bad matchup, this one is almost entirely about workload. Milwaukee already has the one seed and the first-round bye locked up, so there's no reason to protect Robert Gasser (MIL) against a Cardinals team that also has nothing left to play for. "Just let him pitch, let him cook," Lindy said, noting Gasser threw 107 pitches as recently as his last outing and should be allowed 90-95 tonight regardless of matchup. That's notable because St. Louis has run one of the lowest strikeout rates against left-handers all year, normally a reason to stay away from a lefty's strikeout number entirely. "I generally would never do this against the Cardinals," he admitted, "but don't you just let Robert Gasser eat in this spot?" He's playing the number at -115, sized at roughly 0.35 units, which he called his standard size for the day, "straddling the difference of the unknowns, the variance of the day." Robert Gasser (MIL) over 4.5 strikeouts against the St. Louis Cardinals, -115, about 0.35 units.
Joe Ryan Draws Bubble Wrap Against A Twins Team With Nothing Left
The same workload logic flips the other direction here. The Rangers are still fighting Houston for AL West positioning and trying to win, but Joe Ryan (MIN) is pitching for a Twins team with nothing left on the schedule that matters. "Put him in bubble wrap, Twins. Put him in bubble wrap," Lindy said, landing on the strikeout under as the play. He found -138 on FanDuel and gave a clear instruction for anyone shopping the number themselves: "anywhere inside of minus 150 is a go get it, play it." Joe Ryan (MIN) under 6.5 strikeouts against the Texas Rangers, -138 (FanDuel).
"Put him in bubble wrap, Twins. Put him in bubble wrap." That line could describe three different pitchers on tonight's card, not just Joe Ryan, once a team's season stops mattering.
Tarik Skubal Closes The Season On A Hard Innings Cap, Not A Matchup Read
The last official play of the year is built on a number Lindy had to construct himself. There's no outs prop available for Tarik Skubal (LAD), so he worked backward from a hard workload assumption: with the Dodgers eliminated from any seeding stakes after a fresh loss dropped Milwaukee into the one seed, Lindy doesn't expect Skubal to be pushed anywhere close to a full outing. "If I put a hard 15-out cap on Skubal, there is no planet where under seven and a half strikeouts is not an advantageous play," he said. The Giants' lineup has gotten dramatically weaker in the second half, but Lindy noted it's also been more strikeout-resistant than the raw numbers suggest, which only strengthens a bet built on limited exposure rather than a soft matchup. He flagged real risk on this one: if the Dodgers scratch Skubal entirely to protect him for the postseason, the bet gets voided. Even so, he called it his "final deployment" of the season. Tarik Skubal (LAD) under 7.5 strikeouts against the San Francisco Giants, no price stated on air; check the live number and be aware this can void if he's scratched.
That's the season's last six fires, and the throughline across them is the split Lindy kept returning to all night: three reads built on a team still playing with stakes (Sánchez, Ryan, and the Skubal workload cap all lean on somebody having nothing left to protect), and three built on finding an edge inside a team that's already coasting (Jobe's Pirates matchup, Peters' platoon split against a clinched White Sox club, Gasser's free innings against a locked-in Brewers team).
Of the six official plays, only Tristan Peters is a power number. Everything else on the card is a workload or matchup read, which tells you what the last day of a long season actually rewards: knowing who still has something to lose.
What Lindy Passed On
Not every spot he dug into made the six-play card. In the Orioles-Yankees opener, he liked the over 6.5 total behind a limited Trevor Rogers and a shaky Brendan Beck (NYY) bullpen game, calling himself "close to playing it," but it never got fired. In Kansas City, he leaned the Royals side against Cleveland's Gavin Williams in a spot with real stakes for the Guardians, whose final record relative to the White Sox decides whether Cleveland hosts a wild-card series or drops several seeds, but stopped short of an official play: "I don't know what to make of it entirely." He flagged Reid Detmers (LAA) under 6.5 strikeouts against a lifeless Mariners lineup, then talked himself out of it: "probably can't do that." And he circled back to a recurring bit on this show, a Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) earned-runs under number against the Padres, without committing on air: "I don't know what to make of it. We'll find out more when I write my article after this program." None of those count as plays in this recap, only as spots he's still watching.
Also Grinding The Board: Today's +EV Hits
Lindy's card leans on strikeouts, workload math, and one multi-homer longshot tonight, but OddsShopper's own live board flagged real value sitting inside several of the exact same games already on his card. Every number below is de-vigged to a fair price as of Friday morning.
| Player | Market | Best price | Fair (de-vigged) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Munetaka Murakami | Under 0.5 Hits | +132 (Bet365) | +112 fair |
| Jonathan Deluca | Under 0.5 Hits | +140 (Bet365) | +122 fair |
| Eduardo Valencia | Under 0.5 Hits | +155 (Bet365) | +143 fair |
| Angel Martinez | Under 0.5 Hits | +185 (Bet365) | +172 fair |
| T.J. Rumfield | Under 0.5 Hits | +132 (Bet365) | +124 fair |
| Max Clark | Under 0.5 Hits | +140 (Bet365) | +133 fair |
| Bobby Witt Jr. | Under 0.5 Hits | +185 (Bet365) | +177 fair |
| Tampa Bay Rays +1.5 | Run Line | -148 (BetRivers) | -156 fair |
| Jac Caglianone | Under 0.5 Hits | +160 (Fanatics) | +155 fair |
| Hao-Yu Lee | Under 0.5 Hits | +160 (Fanatics) | +155 fair |
That board clusters almost entirely inside games Lindy already had open tonight. Murakami and T.J. Rumfield both price out of the same White Sox-Rockies game carrying Lindy's fired multi-homer play on Tristan Peters (a hits-under number on Peters himself isn't on this board, since it would directly contradict the multi-homer play he's actually betting). Jonathan Deluca and the Tampa Bay Rays run line both price out of the Rays-Phillies game behind his Cristopher Sánchez under. Angel Martinez, Bobby Witt Jr., and Jac Caglianone price out of the Guardians-Royals game he leaned on but never fired. And Eduardo Valencia, Max Clark, and Hao-Yu Lee cluster around the same start time as his Jobe play in Detroit.
Take the Murakami row as the worked example of how that edge gets found. Bet365 has the hits-under at +132, which needs to hit only about 43.1% of the time to break even. Strip the vig out of the full two-way market and the fair, no-vig price on that same side comes out to +112, a true probability of about 47.2%, roughly a 4.1 percentage-point cushion between what the price demands and what it's actually worth. Priced out as expected value, taking +132 when the fair number is +112 works out to about a 9.4% edge, the largest on tonight's board. Same process on every row above: check every book, de-vig it to a fair price, and only take the number that's actually beatable. Before you shop tonight's card, DraftKings' current offer, and how to claim it, is worth a look while you're comparing prices across books.
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OddsShopper takes the number-hunting off your plate. It checks every book at once, de-vigs the market to a fair price, and surfaces the bets where the price is better than the real chance of it happening, the exact process behind the board above. Lindy's 225-1 case on Tristan Peters came from a different read, a lopsided platoon split the market hasn't fully priced in, not a de-vigged number, but the same discipline of shopping every book applies to both.
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You can also shop the live board yourself at the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, or use our free bet converter if a sportsbook credits you a bonus bet off any of tonight's action.
This recap covers Eric Lindquist's official plays from the season-closing Friday, September 25 "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" show; follow his full card on Tails. He's moving into NFL coverage this weekend, with more MLB analysis to come during the playoffs. Bets are opinions, not guarantees. Please gamble responsibly, 21+.
