New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies Home Run Picks Today (7/19)
Someone's flipping a bat in New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies tonight. These are the hitters most likely to do it — and the sportsbook paying the most when they connect.
On the board for New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies: Juan Soto, Kyle Schwarber, Francisco Lindor, Bryce Harper, Jorge Polanco, Jared Young are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 100+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto (NYM) | +272 | Pinnacle | 26.9% | 37 |
| Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | +296 | Kalshi | 25.3% | 37 |
| Francisco Lindor (NYM) | +402 | PolymarketUS | 19.9% | 37 |
| Bryce Harper (PHI) | +471 | NoVig | 17.5% | 37 |
| Jorge Polanco (NYM) | +525 | Bet365 | 16.0% | 7 |
| Jared Young (NYM) | +534 | PolymarketUS | 15.8% | 37 |
| Brett Baty (NYM) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 30 |
| Marcus Semien (NYM) | +600 | PointsBet | 14.3% | 31 |
The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Nolan McLean Under 5.5 Total Hits Allowed (-122). Bet now → PrizePicks
- MisterMarkot on Tails (#4 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Jesús Luzardo Under 7.5 Total Strikeouts (-114). Bet now → DraftKings
- ShanderBets on Tails likes 3-leg parlay on this game (+493). Bet now
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes Eric Wagaman Over 1.5 Total Bases (+209). Bet now → Polymarket
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More from these experts on New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies. MisterMarkot, PrizePick Champions , ShanderBets post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 100+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies today? Juan Soto at +272 (Pinnacle) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop New York Mets @ Philadelphia Phillies home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
