Thursday features a six-game MLB main slate as the season starts to dwindle down. We are going with the 10x parlay today, which features the top ROI bets in the market based on simulations from Stokastic’s team of data scientists. These parlays are built to exceed at least 10 times the initial bet. There are five props listed below, all of which are favorites. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/15
Salvador Perez O/U 0.5 Home Runs| BetMGM RISK FREE BET
In order to get this parlay to 10x, a home run needs to be in the mix. The home run prop will feature Kansas City Royals catcher Salvador Perez, who has seen a decrease in his production in his 11th season with the Royals. This season, Perez has a .208 ISO and a 34.8% hard-hit rate, which is the lowest he has had for both categories since the 2016 season. Perez and the Royals will try to avoid a sweep by the Minnesota Twins, who are trying to come back in the AL Central. They will send right-hander Dylan Bundy, who is in his first season with the Twins, to the mound. He has allowed a 1.39 HR/9 and just a 7.8% barrel percentage, which are respectable numbers. The Royals are only implied for 3.8 runs in this matchup and even though Perez leads the team with 20 home runs, taking the under on any home run bet is the right side. Lock this player prop in that has a 71% xWin rate.
Best MLB Pick Today: Salvador Perez UNDER 0.5 Home Runs (-303)
Pablo Lopez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Miami Marlins’ young right-hander, Pablo Lopez, is coming off of his worst start of the season where he allowed eight earned runs and failed to complete four innings of work against the New York Mets. The Philadelphia Phillies will present a much easier matchup for Lopez, especially in the strikeout department. They rank in the middle of the league in strikeout rate, while Lopez has a respectable 23.6% rate this season. He may not be as good as teammate Sandy Alcantara, but Lopez ranks second on the team in nearly every pitching statistic. The odds on Lopez reaching this over strikeout prop are very high, as he has thrown five or more strikeouts in 21 of his 28 starts. Stokastic projects Lopez for 5.2 strikeouts in this matchup and an xWin rate of 61% on this over. The Marlins may be struggling this season, but Lopez should be able to throw a quality start and get over this strikeout prop with some ease as he has done so frequently.
Best MLB Pick Today: Pablo Lopez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-167)
Corey Dickerson O/U 1.5 Total Bases | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
It has been a very wild career for Corey Dickerson, as he is on his seventh team in his last eight seasons. For once being a 20+ home run player, Dickerson’s numbers have been diminishing recently. He has a .143 ISO and a ridiculously career-low 24% hard-hit rate. With a barrel percentage of only 4.2%, it should not be shocking that Dickerson only has 22 extra-base hits this season. Getting to two or more total bases will likely require an extra-base hit because Dickerson has only had five games where he had two or more hits in his last 17 games. Dickerson is projected to bat second in the St. Louis Cardinals lineup against Cincinnati Reds veteran right-hander Chase Anderson. This will be Anderson’s fourth start and fifth appearance this season, and the Reds are just coasting into the offseason. It’s a great matchup for Dickerson, who does get the platoon advantage, but the odds seem pretty favorable for him to get under 1.5 total bases tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Corey Dickerson UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-161)
Pete Alonso O/U 1.5 Total Bases | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Another total bases prop that pops is Pete Alonso under 1.5 with the New York Mets hosting the Pittsburgh Pirates. These teams are going in opposite directions, which shows in the line as the Mets are -275 home favorites. The Polar Bear leads the Mets in home runs and RBIs as he has hit a home run in back-to-back games. Despite the recent long balls, Alonso feels almost like a home run or bust to get over this prop. We already discussed home run props in general above, but over his last 17 games, Alonso has only five extra-base hits. Also during that time, he has only three games where he had more than one hit, so the odds are once again largely on the under on 1.5 total bases. J.T. Brubaker will take the mound for the Pirates. Despite his 3-11 record, Brubaker has a 1.09 HR/9 and a career-best 4.36 ERA. Keeping the ball in the yard has been one of his best strong suits this season. It is hard to believe Alonso hits a home run in three straight games, so take the under for this total bases prop.
Best MLB Pick Today: Pete Alonso UNDER 1.5 Total Bases (-154)
Houston Astros vs. Oakland Athletics | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Houston Astros have a six-game lead to claim the No. 1 overall seed in the American League, while the Oakland Athletics are one of two teams who are already mathematically eliminated. Betting the over on this matchup may seem a little weird when the matchup is so lopsided. The Astros are the biggest favorites on the slate at -305, as they are implied for a slate-high 5.2 runs. On the flip side, the Athletics are implied for 2.9 runs as they get a matchup against Lance McCullers Jr. He has been solid, but this is also only McCullers’ sixth start this season as he is working his way back from injury. McCullers has allowed two earned runs in each of his last two starts. Don’t expect the Athletics to score much, but the Astros might be able to reach this over on their own against Athletics starter James Kaprielian. In his second full season in the league, Kaprielian has a very low 15.9% strikeout rate while allowing a 4.79 ERA and 1.32 HR/9. Eight runs seem rather easy for these two teams to reach. Even though the odds for this prop are the lowest in the parlay, it is still a favorite.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total Runs OVER 8.0 Runs (-110)
