All 30 teams are playing tonight as we look for another big parlay hit with this Prop Party parlay. Up to FIVE Player Prop bets that’ll give you the best chance to win based on our Stokastic simulations. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community and Alex “Awesemo” Baker – the world’s #1 daily fantasy player – uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/27
Brewers vs. Cardinals | RISK FREE BET
If the Brewers want any chance of making the postseason, they are going to have to get hot coming down the stretch as they are two games back from the last wild card spot in the National League. Starting tonight against the Cardinals, the Brewers will end their season with a nine-game home stand. They are 42-30 at home this season, so we’ll see if they have one last rally in them. Adrian Houser will start and that is good news for the Brewers as they have won each of the last five times Houser has started. The Cardinals can clinch the NL Central division tonight or tomorrow with a win over the Brewers, but they are basically already locked into their No. 3 seed. Miles Mikolas will take the mound for the Cardinals and has lost three-straight starts. He hasn’t pitched too bad, but the Cardinals have scored four runs in those three starts. With their backs against the wall, it is hard to go away from the Brewers in this spot, especially getting a run at home where they have played so well. This bet has the highest xWin rate in this Prop Party parlay at 61%. Take the home team and let’s keep it moving.
Best MLB Pick Today: Brewers +1.5 (-165)
Kyle Muller O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
After a convincing 8-0 victory last night which got the Braves back to within one game of the NL East division race, they will look to the young left-hander Kyle Muller to keep the momentum going. Muller and the Braves are a -225 favorite on the road as the Nationals are only implied for 3.5 runs after being shut out yesterday. This will be Muller’s third start of the season as he has spent most of his time in the minor leagues. In his most recent start two weeks ago, he allowed only two earned runs while generating five strikeouts in a victory over the Marlins. Through 23 starts in Triple-A, he has a 29.3% strikeout rate. He should be able to carry most of that success in this matchup. The Nationals have scored the fifth-fewest runs in the league this season, but they do have a low strikeout rate. However, their lineup keeps getting worse and worse as we have only a week and a half left in the season. Stokastic projects Muller for 4.9 strikeouts in this spot and there is no concern of a short leash, especially if he is rolling against this Nationals lineup. Another heavy favorite for our second bet of the parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Kyle Muller OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)
Tigers vs. Royals O/U 7.5 Runs | RISK FREE BET
One of the earlier games features the Tigers vs. the Royals in an AL Central division clash between two teams who have been eliminated from the playoffs for quite a while. These two offenses are not all that great, but these two starting pitchers are even worse. Zack Greinke will start for the Royals. As the veteran pitcher, he has had a tough season. Through 24 starts, Greinke only has four wins and a 4.21 ERA. He also has a career-low 13.1% strikeout rate as his fastball average velocity has been below 90 MPH for the third-straight season. He is coasting into retirement. On the opposite side, Joey Wentz will take the mound for the Tigers as this is only his fourth start since the end of May. Wentz has been the better pitcher of the two, but the Royals have been the better offense as they have won six of their last eight games while scoring 6.1 runs per game. The Tigers haven’t been bad either, scoring 5.2 runs per game in their last six games. Picking a side in this matchup is a crapshoot, so instead, we will take the over 7.5 runs in hopes the pitchers struggle and these offenses continue to hit the ball well.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total OVER 7.5 Runs (-105)
Mets vs. Marlins O/U 7.0 Runs | RISK FREE BET
It is tough for the Braves to win the division when the Mets keep on winning. They have won eight of their last 10 games as they welcome in the Marlins for a short two-game series. We go from a bad pitching matchup with the Tigers and Royals to what should be a pitcher’s duel in this matchup. Carlos Carrasco will start for the Mets as he is tied for the team lead with 15 wins. Carrasco has improved so much from year one with the Mets to this year. This will be his fourth start this season against the Marlins. He has a 3-0 record with a 2.10 ERA and 6.3 strikeouts per game in his three starts. He should continue feasting on this matchup as the Marlins rank in the top-10 in strikeout rate and have scored the third-fewest runs in the league. They are only implied for 2.9 runs tonight. A much tougher matchup for Marlins starter Pablo Lopez, but he has been solid in his 30 starts. His start tonight will tie him for the most in the league. The high-powered Mets are only implied for 4.3 runs, so let’s hope for a pitcher’s duel and for this total to go under seven runs tonight.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total UNDER 7.0 Runs (-105)
Mitch Keller O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET
Last but not least, we have a strikeout prop and the only prop coming in at plus-money in this Prop Party parlay. That would be Pirates starter Mitch Keller, who draws a cupcake matchup against the Reds tonight. Two very poor teams, but the Pirates are favored as the Reds are only implied for 3.5 runs. It’s not saying too much, but Keller leads the Pirates’ starters in wins and has a decent 3.99 ERA and 1.38 WHIP this season. After a slow start, he has been dialed in with capturing strikeouts recently. He is averaging 5.7 strikeouts per game in his last six starts, despite winning only one of those games. The Reds rank seventh in strikeout rate this season, so this line feels quite low given how well Keller has been pitching lately. Stokastic projects Keller for 4.8 strikeouts, making this arguably the best player prop on the slate. For a +2020.52 parlay odds, the expected ROI of 6% and an expected win rate of 5% is quite good. This would be a massive parlay to hit!
Best MLB Pick Today: Mitch Keller OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
