The Dallas Mavericks and Phoenix Suns will square off on NBA TV this evening. At 11-11, the Mavericks must start stringing together wins to establish themselves as contenders. The 16-7 Suns don’t have that problem. The Suns are slight road underdogs for this evening’s contest with Chris Paul out and Torrey Craig‘s status up in the air.
The Mavericks betting predictions below might not correspond exactly to available markets. Still, bettors should consider these numbers when placing their wagers on Monday’s action. Who knows — maybe they will help you cash a lottery same-game parlay ticket.
Mavericks Bold Betting Predictions
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No. 1. Tim Hardaway Jr. Crashes Back to Earth
Small forward Tim Hardaway Jr. has exploded since re-entering the starting lineup against the Milwaukee Bucks. He has gone for 20-plus points in his last three games. He even tied his season-best performance of 28 points against the Knicks in his last time out — a game that sixth man Christian Wood missed. However, Hardaway is still averaging only 12.4 points per game on the year and has averaged only 15.4 points per game as a Maverick.
The Phoenix Suns have bullied opposing wings all season. Phoenix has allowed the fewest points per game (18.9) and the second-fewest made 3’s per game (2.1) to the position this year. Those numbers have even ticked down over the last seven games, a stretch through which Phoenix has allowed the third-fewest points (17.9) and fewest made 3’s (1) to small forwards. With Hardaway spending 71% of his minutes at small forward, tonight’s matchup against the Suns is a perfect spot to sell high. His point total sits all the way up at 16.5 on the player prop markets.
Mavericks Betting Prediction: Tim Hardaway Regresses to the Mean
No. 2. Spencer Dinwiddie Struggles to Dish out Dimes
When the Dallas Mavericks brought in Spencer Dinwiddie last year, they had him functioning as the third guard in their rotation behind Jalen Brunson. But Brunson’s departure has forced Dinwiddie into the lineup alongside Luka Doncic, leaving Dallas shorthanded in the backcourt and limiting Dinwiddie’s chances to handle the ball.
The numbers support this conclusion. Dinwiddie’s assist percentage (25.8%) trails Doncic’s, and the veteran guard has averaged only 4.5 assists per game as a Maverick. The Suns rank 20th in pace and have limited opposing point guards to the third-fewest assists per game (7.1) while giving up the fourth-fewest team assists (22.7). Dinwiddie totaled a measly three assists in Dallas’ season-opening game against Phoenix and should struggle again tonight.
Mavericks Betting Prediction: Spencer Dinwiddie Can’t Make Plays
No. 3. Dallas Lets Phoenix Win Late
With the Mavericks favored by only 2.5 points, the Suns are projected to play them close. Close games have been a problem for the Mavericks for a long time. They finished 25th in clutch net rating (-9.1) last season after finishing 22nd (-6.3) the season before. Dallas currently ranks 24th in clutch net rating (-12) largely because of poor defensive play. They rank a pathetic 29th in clutch defensive rating (123.3).
In contrast, the Suns have played well in the clutch. They led the NBA in clutch net rating last year (+33.4) after finishing 13th the year prior (+1). Phoenix currently ranks ninth in clutch net rating (+12.6). Sharp offensive play down the stretch has been the cause — the Suns rank fourth in clutch offensive rating (127.2). Unless the Mavericks can blow out the Suns, the clutch numbers suggest Phoenix should snag another win late.
This is exactly what happened the first time these teams met. Dallas entered halftime with a 17-point lead, but the Suns rallied in the third quarter to make a five-point game heading into the fourth. The Mavericks pulled ahead by 15 with 8:30 left — only to give up a 23-7 run that saw Phoenix take the lead with only 3:10 remaining.
Mavericks Betting Prediction: Suns Score a Close Win Late
