The Boston Celtics and Miami Heat will face off for the first time since they met in the Eastern Conference Finals. The Celtics have since lost head coach Ime Udoka, and center Robert Williams III won’t be available. Miami has since lost forward P.J. Tucker. But those changes aren’t massive, and Friday’s contest promises to be a competitive battle. The NBA odds reveal the Celtics are slight road favorites over the Heat. Bettors should head to DraftKings sportsbook to tail the following Celtics-Heat odds and predictions.
Celtics-Heat Odds & Predictions
Celtics Started the Season Strong
The Celtics started the season on the right foot with a commanding win over the Philadelphia 76ers. Boston dominated on the fast break and outscored the 76ers by 22 in transition. Star forwards Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown looked utterly dominant and combined for 70 points, 15 rebounds and six assists. That said, the duo turned the ball over a combined seven times.
Boston's roster isn't flawless. Without switchable big man Robert Williams III, Boston is vulnerable to dominant opposing centers. For instance, Joel Embiid racked up 26 points and 15 rebounds despite not looking great on Wednesday. Of Boston's available bigs -- Grant Williams, Al Horford, Blake Griffin and Noah Vonleh -- only two finished as net positives: Horford and Vonleh. The 36-year-old Horford ran into foul trouble early, and the Celtics limited him to only 23 minutes. He averaged 37.3 minutes per game in Boston's playoff series against Miami last year.
But the Celtics have enough going for them to encourage fans and bettors alike. Boston just dispatched a full-strength Philadelphia team without Williams. Furthermore, the new take-foul rules should benefit a Celtics offense that new head coach Joe Mazzulla has encouraged to play faster.
Heat Shot Terribly in Season Opener
The Heat did not start the season the way they likely hoped. An opening-night loss to the Chicago Bulls isn't a great look, especially since the Bulls lacked starters Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine. The Heat rolled with a nine-man rotation, with Caleb Martin taking most of P.J. Tucker's minutes at forward. Martin finished with the highest net plus-minus of Miami's starters (-7), while guard Tyler Herro finished with the lowest (-18). Bench players Duncan Robinson (+8) and Gabe Vincent (+7) led the team in the metric.
Head coach Erik Spoelstra just needed his high-volume players to shoot better. Bam Adebayo shot 33.3% from the floor, well below his season average of 55.7% from last year. Likewise, Kyle Lowry shot a miserable 14.2% and missed all five of his 3-point attempts. Lowry has been trending down, but he still made 44% of his shots and 37.7% of his triples last year. Both Adebayo and Lowry should benefit from some regression on Friday night.
That said, the Heat may need to make some adjustments. Miami's defense gave up far too many rebounds to Bulls center Nikola Vucevic, as he racked up a whopping 17, and DeMar DeRozan feasted with 37 points, 16 of which came from mid-range. Fortunately for Miami, no player takes more mid-range looks than DeRozan, so that may be less of an issue moving forward.
Final Celtics-Heat Odds & Pick
The Heat should lean on Adebayo tonight. He went wild in his two games against the Celtics that Robert Williams III missed, recording 17 points and 12 rebounds in late March (29 total points plus rebounds). He then scored 31 and added 10 rebounds in the playoff game Williams missed (41). Williams also played only 14 minutes in Game 7, and Adebayo scored 25 points and grabbed 11 rebounds in that game.
Adebayo struggled on opening night, so the books opened his props at below-average totals. But the value has quickly been getting bought off the board. FanDuel has already raised this number to 26.5, and both Caesars and DraftKings have increasingly stacked the juice on the over. Bettors should wager enough on this line to profit one unit.
Celtics-Heat Pick: Bam Adebayo OVER 24.5 Points + Rebounds (-125 for 1.25 Units) at DraftKings
