Thanksgiving has come and gone, and that means the NBA is back in action with a loaded 13-game slate. Bettors will have basketball to bet on from 5:00 ET until after midnight. The following NBA player props, including Clint Capela, offer a solid return — but bettors can always check out OddsShopper’s tools and Stokastic’s player prop model for other smart plays.
Top NBA Player Props | November 25
Marcus Smart O/U 11.5 Points
Although Marcus Smart has a smaller role in Boston’s offense this season than in the previous three, he has gotten the minutes necessary to beat a relatively small number against the Sacramento Kings. Smart averages 32.9 minutes and 11.3 points per game. He has beaten this number in three of his last four starts.
Sacramento’s defense is a perfect matchup for Smart. The Kings play at the fifth-fastest pace and rank 25th in defensive rating (113.7). Their defense has permitted an NBA-high 27.9 points per game to point guards, where Smart has spent 97% of his minutes. Their defense has proven especially vulnerable on the interior, as the Kings give up the fifth-most points in the paint per game (53.6). Smart averages a steady 4.2 shots from the paint per game.
Recent box scores reveal just how terrible the Kings have been at stopping point guards. Trae Young scored 35 points against them on Wednesday. Ja Morant scored 34 on Tuesday. Killian Hayes and Jaden Ivey combined for 33 on Sunday. Tre Jones went for 25 on Thursday. Point guards who can do damage on the interior have had big games against Sacramento, and Smart is next in line for that honor tonight.
Best NBA Player Prop: Marcus Smart Over 11.5 Points (-115 for 1.15 Unit) at DraftKings
Buddy Hield O/U 3.5 Made 3’s
What happens when an unstoppable force meets a movable object? Bettors will find out tonight when Buddy Hield faces the Brooklyn Nets. The Nets have allowed an NBA-high 4.7 made 3’s per game to opposing shooting guards. They have also given up the fourth-most above-the-break 3’s (10.1) on the second-highest shooting percentage (38.2%). Hield plays the two and leads the Pacers in above-the-break threes made (2.8) and attempted (8.2) per game.
The Nets have been a sharp team to target with opposing twos all season. Zach LaVine, Kevin Huerter and Anfernee Simons easily cashed their props against them earlier in the year. Bettors should head back to the well with the books listing Hield in the plus money to make at least four triples.
Although the Pacers were expected to tank this season, they sit at a respectable 10-7 and rank fifth in the Eastern Conference. Hield’s scoring has accounted for plenty of their success — the talented shooter has averaged 17.2 points and 3.8 made triples per game. The Pacers have given him plenty of chances to shoot, too — Hield has averaged a whopping 10 three-point attempts per game. Hield should capitalize on that volume in a smash spot against Brooklyn.
Best NBA Player Prop: Buddy Hield Over 3.5 Made 3’s (+110) at DraftKings
Clint Capela O/U 1.5 Blocks
The Atlanta Hawks will face the floundering Houston Rockets tonight, and Atlanta’s bigs should produce impressive defensive numbers. With the Rockets allowing the third-most blocks per game (6.5) and the most to centers (3.3), bettors should expect big things from Capela on defense.
The veteran center has averaged an impressive 1.6 blocks per game this year. He has gone over this number in exactly half of his starts, including his previous matchup against the Rockets. His performance against them in mid-October continued a streak of two-block games against Houston that extends to his departure from the team in 2020.
Capela has seen his minutes tick down as Onyeka Okongwu has steadily emerged, but he still gets enough run to cash this prop. He ranks ninth in block rate (5%) and 19th in blocks per 36 minutes (2.1). Further, the Rockets are projected to be without Alperen Sengun, which may force Usman Garuba to play more minutes. Opposing teams have blocked 5.8 shots per 36 minutes with Garuba on the floor, far more than the 4.3 they have blocked when facing Sengun.
Best NBA Player Prop: Clint Capela Over 1.5 Blocks (+105) at BetMGM
