The NBA season is off and running and as we get into week two of action, we will see some prop lines begin to adjust. We started the season 2-0 on our NBA props last week and will look to continue to find value in the market tonight. Tonight’s slate features eight games that present valuable options across the board. hopper to lock in the best line on all of your bets.
NBA Betting Picks Today
Jalen Smith O/U 6.5 Rebounds
Indiana Pacers power forward Jalen Smith may not be a household name, but he could be a guy who is a focus in the player prop market all season. Through three games, Smith is averaging 8.3 rebounds per game but only played for seven minutes in the game where he exited with an injury. Let’s have a look at the two games he did play his full workload. He had eight rebounds against the Wizards in 22 minutes of work and 15 rebounds against the Pistons in 28 minutes.
Smith is a talented player that needs the opportunity to perform The Pacers may be a tanking team but in a game where they are expected to get blown out in anyways, Smith sees his minutes in the high 20s. That full workload will feature Joel Embiid on the other side but if Smith can stay out of foul trouble, the rebounding chances he will be presented should allow him plenty of opportunity to grab over seven. OddsShopper gives Smith a 53% chance to surpass 6.5 rebounds and at +105 odds to the over, it’s a great look with an expected ROI of 9%.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet: Jalen Smith Over 6.5 Rebounds (+105)
Jayson Tatum O/U 25.5 Points
I’m going back to Jayson Tatum. On opening night, he hit his over 23.5 points with ease and although his line has moved up to 25.5, it’s a few points too short here. Through three games, he has put up 35, 29 and 40 points, good for 34.7 points per game. This matchup against the Bulls features a 5.5-point spread and a 226.5 total, meaning Tatum should play the full game and the blowout potential on the road shouldn’t be an issue. He currently leads the league in scoring, which has featured two tough matchups against both Philadelphia and Miami.
Tatum has a usage rate of 31.9% and is averaging 21 field goal attempts per game. He is the clear-cut No. 1 option on the Celtics, and this Bulls matchup is one he will be able to take advantage of. If the Bulls can do their part and keep this game close, Tatum will play in the 38-minute range tonight, which should allow him to once again get up 20+ shots. So, you have an efficient scorer taking 20+ shots and getting to the foul line over eight times per game but his line is set at 25.5? Too low.
OddsShopper gives Tatum a 55% chance to exceed 25.5 points and at -115 odds, it’s definitely worth a bet. In fact, he could see another 30-point night in Chicago. We have a star player here who is three-for-three on going over 25.5 points.
Best NBA Player Prop Bet: Jayson Tatum Over 25.5 Points (-115)
