The NBA is back in action with a loaded 10-game slate this Wednesday night. Two marquee matchups headline the slate — an Eastern Conference battle between the Celtics and Hawks, and a Western Conference battle between the Warriors and Suns. Bettors looking for a solid return from tonight’s card should target the following NBA player props — or check out OddsShopper’s tools — including the new player prop model — for other smart plays.
Top NBA Player Props | November 16
Dejounte Murray O/U 20.5 Points
Gregg Popovich’s San Antonio Spurs led the NBA in both mid-range shots attempted (18.1) and mid-range makes (8) per game back in the 2020-21 season. Both Dejounte Murray and DeMar DeRozan were encouraged to develop their mid-range shot, and it’s reaped benefits for them down the line. Unsurprisingly, Murray now leads the Hawks in mid-range shots attempted (5.4) and made (2.6) per game.
The Boston Celtics have struggled against good mid-range shooters all season. They have allowed the most mid-range attempts (16) and (7.2) makes per game. They let DeRozan rack up 25 points against them in their first meeting with the Bulls — and then DeRozan dropped a season-high 46 points in their second meeting. A look at the shot charts reveals that DeRozan did most of his damage from mid-range. That bodes well for Murray.
Boston’s defense may have led the association last year, but it’s taken a massive step back this year. The Celtics rank just 19th in defensive rating (112.5) and have allowed the fifth-most points per game to shooting guards (24.7). With Murray spending 91% of his minutes at the two, he’ll benefit more from Boston’s defensive weaknesses than Trae Young will.
Murray’s prop total sits at a reasonable 20.5. He has gone over that number in exactly half of his starts this season while averaging 21.5 points per game. Tonight’s matchup with Boston will allow him to showcase what he was trained to do in San Antonio, and bettors should also place a half-unit wager on him to score 25-plus points at FanDuel.
Best NBA Player Prop: Dejounte Murray OVER 20.5 Points (-125) at Caesars
Kristaps Porzingis O/U 1.5 Turnovers
The Oklahoma City Thunder have relied on forcing turnovers — and then scoring off them — to win games this season. It’s worked reasonably well so far: they lead the NBA in turnovers forced (17.3) and rank fifth in points scored off turnovers (20.1). Oklahoma City even nearly beat Boston after forcing 14 turnovers and scoring 23 points off them. They’ll apply this same formula in Washington on Wednesday.
Kristaps Porzingis has struggled to hold onto the ball. He is averaging 1.8 turnovers per game this season after averaging 1.6 per game with the Wizards last year. Porzingis has gone over this number in seven of his 13 appearances, none of which came against a defense as annoying as Oklahoma City’s. With Porzingis ranked fourth among Washington’s active players in passes (35.7) and touches (54.6) per game, the Thunder will have plenty of chances to force him into mistakes.
The Thunder won’t just have to trap Porzingis or steal the ball from him — they can also draw plenty of charges. Oklahoma City leads the NBA in charges drawn per game (1.29). Although the Thunder have forced the 10th-fewest turnovers per game from centers (2.7), where Porzingis spends most of his minutes, they have forced the third-most from power forwards (3.3), the position more akin to Porzingis’ actual role.
Best NBA Player Prop: Kristaps Porzingis OVER 1.5 Turnovers (-120 for 0.6 Units) at DraftKings
Ayo Dosunmu O/U 3.5 Assists
The Chicago Bulls remain without Lonzo Ball and Coby White in their backcourt. Their absence has forced Ayo Dosunmu and Goran Dragic into larger roles within Chicago’s offense. Dosunmu has been starting at point guard recently and has spent 43% of his minutes there this season. Playing at the one has given him plenty of chances to dish out assists. Dosunmu currently leads the Bulls in passes per game (52.9).
The New Orleans Pelicans are a good matchup for Dosunmu. They rank a league-average 16th in pace and have allowed the second-most assists per game to point guards (9.8). They gave up four dimes to Dosunmu last week, and Dragic chipped in for another six. Tyrese Haliburton had dished out 13 assists against them in the game before that one, and Trae Young went for 10 before that.
Although Dosunmu is a lower-volume and less efficient player than both Haliburton and Young, the books have his number set to only 3.5 and have left it in the plus money. He has beaten that number in his last two meetings with the Pelicans dating back to last season. Dosunmu’s odds of racking up at least four assists are better than his implied odds of 42.3% suggest.
Best NBA Player Prop: Ayo Dosunmu OVER 3.5 Assists (+135 for 0.5 Units) at DraftKings
