Facing Phoenix on the road, the Pelicans will be without Brandon Ingram once again (concussion) while the statuses of C.J. McCollum, Zion Williamson and Herbert Jones are still up in the air, with all three listed as questionable. The game’s total is 225.5, with the Suns currently favored by 7 or 7.5 points. As of writing, sportsbooks are only listing props for the Suns players.
Pelicans-Suns Player Props | Oct. 28
Deandre Ayton O/U 10.5 Rebounds
Deandre Ayton averaged 10.2 rebounds per game last season (13th) and has a career average of 10.5 rebounds per game. He averages 30.7 minutes, 13.8 rebounds chances and 9.5 rebounds per game this year, so his rebounding should improve moving forward. Nonetheless, he will be challenged to secure rebounds in today’s matchup.
New Orleans is an elite rebounding team, having the highest rebounding percentage (54.7%) and limiting opponents to only 39.3 rebounds per game, third fewest. While it has not faced the most formidable centers, it’s still noteworthy that New Orleans allows the ninth-fewest rebounds per game to opposing centers – 13.63. Despite playing without 60% of their starting lineup, they still limited Dallas to only 37 rebounds, including only 13 rebounds to the trio of JaVale McGee, Maxi Kleber and Christian Wood.
Most books have Ayton’s rebounds prop at 9.5, but PointsBet has it at 10.5. Ayton is projected for 9.3 rebounds tonight and only had 11 rebounds or more once this season, playing against a Warriors team that allows the fourth-most rebounds to the center position. Risk-averse bettors should take advantage of PointsBet’s higher line and go under Ayton rebounds prop despite the heavy juice (-175). With that being said, those with a higher risk tolerance can head to FanDuel and bet under 9.5 rebounds at close to plus money (-104, best odds as of writing).
Best Bet: Deandre Ayton UNDER 10.5 Rebounds (-175 at PointsBet)
Deandre Ayton O/U 0.5 steals
Ayton went over today’s line in three of four games and has a great chance of doing so again tonight given the matchup. Notably, opposing teams average 10 steals per game playing against New Orleans, third most in the league. Specifically, the Pelicans allow opposing centers 2.47 steals per game this season, the most in the League. While defensive props are somewhat unpredictable, today’s line seems too low considering Ayton’s early success stealing the ball and New-Orleans’ tendency to turn the ball over to opposing centers.
Best Bet: Deandre Ayton OVER 0.5 Steals (+120 at DraftKings/BetMGM)
Chris Paul O/U 1.5 steals
Chris Paul has a career average of 2.1 steals per game, and he averaged 1.9 steals per game last season. Averaging 2.2 steals per game this year (tied for sixth most), Paul is responsible for roughly 25% of the Suns’ steals per game (7.8, 11th-highest mark). He also has the 12th-highest steal percentage in the association (3.3%) and has gone over today’s line in two of the four games.
The Pelicans are middle of the road in steals to opposing point guards, coughing up 2.05 steals per game to the position. All told, getting close to plus-money odds for Paul to record at least two steals in today’s game (-105, best odds as of writing) is decent enough given his opponent.
Best Bet: Chris Paul OVER 1.5 Steals (-105 at DraftKings or BetMGM)
