The Georgia Southern Eagles and the Buffalo Bulls will square off in this year’s Camellia Bowl. Both teams barely earned bowl eligibility at 6-6. Buffalo even needed a rescheduled game against Akron — which they only won with a fourth-quarter touchdown — to secure six wins. Georgia Southern is favored to win the Camellia Bowl in the college football odds. Bettors looking for a positive return should tail these camellia Bowl predictions or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp CFB plays. On to our Georgia Southern-Buffalo odds and predictions for Tuesday.
College Football Odds: Camellia Bowl Odds for Georgia Southern-Buffalo
Georgia Southern Relying on the Pass
The 6-6 Georgia Southern Eagles had a solid but inconsistent run this year. They earned impressive wins over Nebraska and James Madison but lost to a bowl-ineligible Georgia State team. The Eagles finished only 84th in the Fremeau Efficiency Index (FEI). Their new head coach, Clay Helton, now heads to his first bowl game since the USC Trojan's trip to the 2019 Holiday Bowl.
Helton brought his pass-heavy offense with him from USC. The Eagles rank third in passing play percentage (62.2%) and fifth in passing yards per game (323.8). Their offense even ended the year ranked 41st in the FEI. However, other efficiency metrics aren't as kind to the Eagles. Georgia Southern ranks 81st in yards per pass attempt (6.9). Their starting quarterback, Kyle Vantrease, ranks 82nd in passing efficiency (129.3). Vantrease transferred to Georgia Southern from Buffalo last year.
Although the Eagles imported a successful passing scheme on offense, their defense has regressed under their new head coach. Georgia Southern's defense ranked 126th in the FEI. They rank 127th in yards allowed per play (6.7) largely because of the inept rushing defense. The Eagles rank a pathetic 130th in average line yards and surrender nearly an extra half-yard per play than the median defense. Their pass rush also ranks a lowly 115th in sack rate (4.4%).
Buffalo Probably Shouldn't Be Here
The 6-6 Buffalo Bulls needed several miracles and a generous schedule to earn bowl eligibility. Half of their victories stemmed from fourth-quarter comebacks. Buffalo's FCS opponent, Holy Cross, won by six points. The Bulls ranked 90th in the FEI this year, and head coach Maurice Linguist now owns a 10-14 record through two regular seasons. He might not last if Buffalo can't make some major strides next season.
The Bulls run a balanced but inefficient offense. They rank 67th in passing play percentage (47.4%) and 114th in yards per play (4.6). It hasn't mattered whether the Bulls try to move the ball through the air or on the ground -- they rank 107th in yards per rush attempt (3.4) and 105th in yards per pass attempt (6.4). Quarterback Cole Snyder ranks an awful 92nd in passing efficiency (123.5). That would be fine if Snyder were a dual-threat quarterback, but he has only 140 rushing yards this season. Matt Myers, who the Bulls used as a rushing quarterback, entered the transfer portal and sat out Buffalo's final game.
The silver lining is that Linguist, once the defensive backs coach of the Dallas Cowboys, led Buffalo's defense to rank 66th in the FEI. Still, Buffalo ranks only 92nd in yards allowed per play (5.8). The defensive front ranks 46th in average line yards but 117th in yards allowed per rush attempt (5.1). Linguist's pass defense ranks a much more impressive 48th in yards allowed per pass attempt (6.9). However, the Bulls' secondary won't benefit from snow and cold weather on Tuesday.
Final Camellia Bowl Prediction & Pick
The Georgia Southern Eagles are the better team. While the books have priced them accordingly, bettors can find value in backing the Eagles up to -5.5. Buffalo's secondary won't stop Georgia Southern's high-volume attack. The Bulls nearly lost to Akron, a 2-10 team that passes about as frequently as Georgia Southern, in their regular-season finale.
The Eagles should also benefit from the location on Tuesday. Georgia Southern's fans can more easily make it to Montgomery than Buffalo's fans. Kyle Vantrease is no stranger to Montgomery, either -- he won the Camellia Bowl with Buffalo in 2020. Bettors should expect the veteran quarterback to enter Tuesday's contest well-prepared and motivated to take down his former team. According to VSiN, 79% of the cash at DraftKings has come in on Georgia Southern -- but on only 63% of the tickets.
Final Camellia Bowl Pick for Georgia Southern-Buffalo: Georgia Southern -4 (-110) at DraftKings
