NFL Week 9 saw a massive development in the MVP market. The Buffalo Bills suffered a shocking loss against the New York Jets despite being favored by 10.5 points, and more importantly, quarterback Josh Allen may have suffered an elbow injury at the end of the game. The big caveat with NFL MVP odds of late was that Allen would probably need to suffer an injury for anyone else to win, and that may have happened.
With that in mind, it’s not surprising there were some sizable shifts in the MVP odds, including a new favorite for the first time this season.
Let’s dive into some of the biggest risers and fallers in NFL MVP Odds heading into Week 10. Be sure to check our OddsShopper tool for more NFL best bets.
2022 NFL MVP Odds and Predictions
Faller: Josh Allen +125 to +350
The Allen injury is a brutal blow for all football fans. However, injuries are part of football, and it’s why betting on a favorite is so risky in the MVP market. Every player is always one play away from his season being over.
Fortunately, that’s probably not the case with Allen. He was able to finish the 20-17 loss last week, although he was clearly feeling the effects of the hit from Bryce Huff.
Current details are scarce. Allen is being evaluated for an injury to his UCL, but it’s unknown if he’s going to miss any time. There will be more information as the week progresses, but it is worth noting that the line on the Bills’ Week 10 game against the Minnesota Vikings dipped drastically. Buffalo opened at -7.5 but is down as low at -5.0 at some locations.
That makes it tough to handicap Allen in these NFL MVP odds, but swerving into the uncertainty has the potential to be profitable. If he’s able to suit up this week and lead his team to victory over the Vikings, he could be right back at the top of the MVP leaderboard. If you haven’t already gotten some exposure to him, this injury scare could be your opportunity.
Recommendation: Buy
Riser: Patrick Mahomes +415 to +225
With the uncertainty surrounding Allen, Patrick Mahomes has moved into the top spot. The Kansas City Chiefs quarterback is as low as +175 at some locations, but he’s still available at +225 at BetMGM.
Mahomes wasn’t particularly efficient in Week 9 against the Tennessee Titans (a 20-17 overtime win), but he made up for it with volume. He attempted 68 passes — two shy of the NFL record set by Drew Bledsoe in 1994 — and he racked up 446 passing yards and one touchdown. He added 63 rushing yards and one score on the ground.
Mahomes leads the NFL with an average of 325.6 passing yards per game, more than he averaged during his MVP season in 2018-19. His 21 touchdown passes also rank first, with Allen second at 19.
The win pushed the Chiefs to 6-2, the same record as the Bills. The door would be open for Mahomes if Allen misses any time, and he is certainly capable of taking advantage. He faces the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 10, and they rank 27th in pass defense DVOA, per Football Outsiders. That gives him the potential to open up a larger lead over the rest of the field in these NFL MVP odds.
Recommendation: Buy
Riser: Jalen Hurts +365 to +250
Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts is another beneficiary of the Allen injury. The Eagles are the lone undefeated team in the NFL (8-0), and things don’t figure to get much tougher for them. They’re going to be favored in at least eight of their nine remaining games, with a game at the Dallas Cowboys the possible exception.
That’s enough to make Hurts relevant. His statistics don’t exactly jump off the page — especially his raw passing statistics — but he’s the leader of the team with the best record in football. His efficiency numbers are more impressive than his traditional marks, ranking second in the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt.
It would be difficult for a quarterback to win MVP with such pedestrian passing numbers (255.3 yards per game, 12 TD passes). Hurts makes up for it as a runner (326 yards and six TDs), but can he really compete with someone like Mahomes? Hurts is on pace for about 20 fewer touchdown passes and 75 fewer passing yards per game.
The Eagles are also bound to slip up at some point during the regular season. Every team has an off week, like the Bills did in Week 9, which is why only two teams have finished a perfect regular season. The Eagles are very unlikely to be the third.
Recommendation: Sell
Riser: Tua Tagovailoa: +6000 to +2000
The whispers for Tua Tagovailoa have gotten a bit louder over the past few weeks. The Miami Dolphins quarterback has been the most efficient passer in the NFL in terms of adjusted yards per attempt, and the Dolphins have yet to lose a game he started and finished. He leads the league in a variety of efficiency metrics, including touchdown percentage, quarterback rating and QBR, and he has 15 touchdown passes in essentially six games.
Does that make Tagovailoa a legit threat for MVP? Not really. He has clearly benefitted from the Dolphins’ offseason acquisition of wide receiver Tyreek Hill, who could become the first 2,000-yard receiver in NFL history. Hill is the current favorite to win Offensive Player of the Year, and he and Jaylen Waddle make Tagovailoa’s job a lot easier. He is having a phenomenal season but would need something crazy to happen to win MVP.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Justin Herbert +2650 to +6000
Justin Herbert was able to lead the shorthanded Los Angeles Chargers to a 20-17 win over the Atlanta Falcons in Week 9, but he had another uninspiring performance. He averaged 5.12 adjusted yards per attempt, his third straight week at 5.65 or lower. His numbers are down virtually across the board compared to his first three years in the NFL, so he hasn’t taken the leap that everyone was hoping for.
It’s not all Herbert’s fault. No team has been hit harder by injuries than the Chargers this season, including the quarterback’s early-season rib injury, and they were without several talented players last week. Herbert was missing his top two receivers (Keenan Allen and Mike Williams), another pass-catcher (Donald Parham), and his top offensive lineman (Rashawn Slater). With that in mind, it’s not surprising he’s struggled a bit.
Things aren’t going to get any easier in Week 10, at the San Francisco 49ers, who are coming off a bye week. That’s a brutal combination for anyone, especially when you’re operating at less than full strength.
Recommendation: Sell
Faller: Aaron Rodgers +11000 to +25000
Anyone who was holding out hope for Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers offense was sorely disappointed in Week 9. They had a dream matchup against the Detroit Lions, who had been shredded by basically every quarterback who faced them this season. Unfortunately, the Packers managed to score nine points on the board in a shocking 15-9 loss.
The Packers offense ranks 27th in the NFL in points per game, and they suffered some crucial injuries last week. RB Aaron Jones and WR Romeo Doubs each left the stadium in a walking boot, and Doubs is expected to miss an extended period with a high ankle sprain.
It feels bizarre to see Rodgers priced this low in the NFL MVP odds, but it’s fully deserved. There is no light at the end of this tunnel for the quarterback.
Recommendation: Sell
