Christmas Day is calling with a 3-game NFL Week 16 slate headlined by Tom Brady and the Buccaneers taking on the depleted Arizona Cardinals. Let’s analyze the best NFL player props for Saturday, including an Aaron Rodgers prop. For more NFL bets and best NFL player props updated in real time, be sure to check out our OddsShopper tool.
Best NFL Player Props Today (Christmas Day Props)
Best Packers-Dolphins Props
Aaron Rodgers Prop: OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-106, FanDuel)
Aaron Rodgers has the Packers fighting for their playoff lives today. In terms of teams that the Packers needed to lose yesterday, it was a perfect day. The Washington Commanders, New York Giants, Detroit Lions, and Seattle Seahawks all lost. The Packers will have their hands full with the talented Miami Dolphins offense in the highest projected scoring game on Christmas.
Even in a down year for Rodgers, he’s crushed this line all season. The future Hall of Famer is over this line in 9 of 14 games but has failed to throw at least two touchdowns in back-to-back games. The Packers relied on running back duo Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon to rout the underwhelming Los Angeles Rams on Monday Night Football last week. They had 138 rushing yards as a team with Rodgers only attempting 30 passes. The Miami Dolphins are primed to put up points at home. They’re the 9th highest-scoring team in the league and are coming off a 4th quarter meltdown in snowy Buffalo against the Bills.
The chances of Rodgers finding himself playing from behind are likely and will result in him finding rookie sensation Christian Watson in the redzone. Rodgers has surpassed this line in 4 of 7 road games this season and 11 of 15 dating back to last season. Risk at least some holiday spirit on this Aaron Rodgers prop.
Best Buccaneers-Cardinals Props
James Connor Prop: UNDER 92.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
The Arizona Cardinals welcome Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers into for a Sunday Night showdown. The Bcuasners come into this game still atop the NFC South but the Carolina Panthers are right behind them and control their destiny. The Cardinals are onto their 3rd string quarterback in Trace McSorley and will look to play spoiler as they’re out of playoff contention.
James Connor comes into this week with heavy usage. In his last three games, he’s averaging 22 touches and 115 yards. The former Pittsburgh Panthers standout is being asked to do a ton and is in a tough spot to replicate his recent surge. The Buccaneers have speedy linebackers all over the field. Lavonte David and Devin White will make life difficult for Connor catching the ball out of the backfield. The Buccaneers allow the 2nd fewest receiving yards to opposing running backs.
The Buccaneers come into tonight as 7.5-point favorites and will be tough sledding for Connor even without Vita Vea in the middle for the Bucs. Last week, Cincinnati Bengals running back totaled just 54 yards on 16 touches. Connor is under this line in 9 of 11 games and a negative game script could limit his rushing work.
Mike Evans Prop: OVER 57.5 Receiving Yards (-115, DraftKings)
Mike Evans is one of the most talented and pulverizing receivers in all of football. Evans has put together an NFL record 8 straight seasons of 1,000 receiving yards to start his career. Evans is lurking around that number this season. He currently sits at 888 yards and will look to put on a show on Sunday Night Football against a Cardinals team that is missing cornerback Byron Murphy.
Evans has had a relativity quiet season. The Buccaneers have struggled all season long and can’t seem to find a rhythm. The 2020 Super Bowl champions know what’s at stake tonight and Tom Brady will look to feed his 6’5 All-Pro receiver. Evans is coming off one of his better weeks of the season last week against the Cincinnati Bengals. He reeled down 5 catches on 10 targets for a total of 83 yards; his most since Week 7.
This number is too low for a receiver of Evans caliber. He’s over this line in 8 of 13 games and with the Cardinals allowing the 10th most receptions to the wide receiver position, Evans is primed to have a field day.
Mike Evans 80+ yards (+194, FanDuel)
Mike Evans 90+ yards (+280, FanDuel)
Mike Evans 100+ yards (+390, FanDuel)
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