The NFL smartly moved the Browns-Bills game before Buffalo recorded a whopping 77 inches of snow. These teams will now face off in a dome at Detroit’s Ford Field. The prospect of a snow game had crashed the opening total of 47.5 down to 42, but the change in venue has seen it jump back up to a whopping 50.5. Bettors looking for a positive return from Sunday’s action should tail this Browns-Bills prediction and pick– or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp bets and to compare the best odds.
NFL Odds: Browns-Bills Odds
Nick Chubb generating rushing yards at will
The Cleveland Browns' offense is an under bettor's dream. Cleveland ranks 15th in seconds per play (28.7) and seventh in rushing play percentage (48.3%). Although they sit at a lowly 3-6, the Browns have really only pivoted away from the run when trailing by a wide margin.
The Browns' rushing attack can be lethal, but the team hasn't led often enough to get the most out of it. Cleveland ranks fifth in both yards per rush attempt (4.9) and rushing yards per game (158.8). The running backs have benefited from good blocking -- their offensive line ranks seventh in adjusted line yards and ninth in run-block win rate. Center Ethan Pocic ranks sixth in run-block win rate at center.
Still, Nick Chubb deserves the most credit for Cleveland's elite rushing attack. The star running back leads the NFL in rushing defense-adjusted yards above replacement (DYAR) and rushing touchdowns. He ranks third among running backs in both total broken tackles (19) and attempts per broken tackle (8.4). Although his offensive line has helped him rank second in total yards before contact (472), Chubb has still generated the third-most yards after contact (432).
Unfortunately, Cleveland's defense is an over bettor's dream. The Browns are an NFL-high 6-2-1 to the over this year. Their defense ranks 31st in defense-adjusted defensive value over average (DVOA) and 25th in yards allowed per play (5.8). Opposing offenses have gashed them for the fourth-most yards per rush attempt (4.8), and the Dolphins just went for 5.9. Cleveland's defensive line ranks 30th in adjusted line yards and 19th in run-stop win rate. Quarterbacks have also thrown for the seventh-most yards per pass attempt (7.1).
Bills remain banged-up on defense
This version of the Buffalo Bills wasn't well-suited for a snow game, so they'll benefit greatly from a venue change. Buffalo ranks just 24th in rushing play percentage (37.8%) and quarterback Josh Allen leads the team in rushing yards. Allen went just 11-for-26 in a snow game in Week 17 last season while throwing threw three interceptions and no touchdowns.
The Bills don't have much of a rushing game. The offensive line ranks an unimpressive 22nd in adjusted line yards and 21st in run-block win rate. Running backs Devin Singletary, Nyheim Hines and James Cook have combined to generate zero DYAR -- only Cook is positive in the metric. The trio have generated only 236 yards after contact -- less than half what Chubb has done by himself. The silver lining for Buffalo is that Allen leads all quarterbacks with 175 rushing DYAR.
Allen has also been efficient as a passer -- except for some recent turnover troubles. Allen ranks an exceptional third in net yards per attempt (NY/A) with 7.35. However, he has completed a pedestrian 64.5% of his passes and ranks a lowly 26th among quarterbacks with at least 125 passing attempts in on-target throw percentage (71.8%). Buffalo leads the NFL in giveaways per game (2), in no small part because of Allen, who has thrown two picks in his last three starts.
Fortunately, Buffalo's defense should be prepared for Cleveland's rushing attack. Their defense has allowed only 4.5 yards per rush attempt this year, which ranks 14th. Its defensive line ranks fifth in both adjusted line yards and run-stop win rate. The overall defense leads the NFL in defensive DVOA despite a number of injuries, especially in the secondary. Cornerback Tre'Davious White and safety Micah Hyde remain out, while safety Jordan Poyer and cornerback Kaiir Elam are questionable. Inside linebacker Tremaine Edmunds will also sit out.
Final Browns-Bills Prediction & Pick
Both the Browns and Bills are yet to surpass a total set to 50.5 or higher this season. The Browns are 6-3 to the over, but they're yet to get a total that high. In contrast, the Bills are 2-7 to the over and have stayed under all four of their totals set to 50.5 points or higher.
Despite the change in venue, this game should stay under a lofty total, making the over/under the line to focus on for this Browns-Bills prediction. The Browns should get some chunk plays from Nick Chubb to help them wind the clock, especially with Edmunds sidelined. The Bills should struggle to move the ball with Josh Allen trying to play through his elbow injury. Allen completed only 52.9% of his passes against the Jets last week. He also threw two picks and fumbled twice.
Final Browns-Bills Pick: Under 50.5 (-110 for 1.1 units) at DraftKings
Browns-Bills OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper's industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props -- and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model's predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 11 Browns-Bills matchup, the model has identified the first-half moneyline as the best line to target at its current price.
Betting the Bills to win the first half yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to BetMGM for the best price on the market!
