The Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys won their respective divisions last year. Dallas then lost in the opening round of the playoffs, and Tampa Bay made it just one round further. The offseason wasn’t kind to either team, as both squads lost a considerable amount of talent. The sportsbooks predict Tampa Bay will score a road win in Dallas, as the Buccaneers are 2.5-point favorites in the betting market.
Despite the near-field goal advantage for Tampa Bay, the Buccaneers’ betting odds still have value. The Cowboys will struggle with their offensive line in shambles and their receiving corps depleted — it won’t be hard for the Buccaneers’ offense to outscore them.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Week 1 NFL Betting Picks & Predictions
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Betting Odds
New Year, Same Brady?
After Ben Roethlisberger retired at the end of last season, Tom Brady became the NFL's oldest starting quarterback by a seven-year margin. Brady has an exceptional receiving corps entering his 23rd NFL season, but his supporting cast is lacking elsewhere. Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, Russell Gage and Julio Jones form a formidable bunch -- although Godwin may not be ready for Week 1.
The Buccaneers got worse along the offensive line, and that could hurt Brady's productivity this season. Tampa Bay ended 2021 with the second-best unit, per PFF, but three starters are gone. Left guard Ali Marpet retired, and right guard Alex Cappa left for Cincinnati. Center Ryan Jensen went down with a knee injury during the offseason and remains without a timetable for a return. Tampa Bay brought in guard Shaq Mason via trade and guard Luke Goedeke through the draft, but it might take a few weeks for the interior of the line to gel. To make matters worse, right tackle Tristan Wirfs is already dealing with an injury. This unit may struggle to replicate the NFL-best 3.5% adjusted sack rate it recorded last year.
Tampa Bay returns most key pieces of its balanced defense from last year. The unit ranked ninth in overall defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA) but 10th against the pass and 12th against the run. Outside cornerbacks Jamel Dean and Carlton Davis return to form a solid duo in the secondary, but safety Antoine Winfield elevates the unit to another level. Massive nose tackle Vita Vea returns as well, and the elite run-stuffer can dominate the center of an opposing offensive line. The Buccaneers will probably want a bit more from their pass rushers, as the defense ranked just 16th in adjusted sack rate, and they have to hope defensive end Akiem Hicks can help take them over the top.
Cowboys Dealing With Significant Roster Turnover
Last year's Dallas Cowboys led the NFL in DVOA but bowed out in the opening round of the playoffs. Their roster has gotten considerably worse since then. Star quarterback Dak Prescott will return, but he won't have wide receivers Amari Cooper and Cedrick Wilson this time around. Michael Gallup might not even be ready for Week 1. Pass rusher Randy Gregory is off to Denver, and defensive backs Damontae Kazee and Keanu Neal are gone as well.
The offensive line is the biggest concern. He'll have a much worse offensive line as well -- guard Connor Williams and right tackle La'el Collins left in free agency, and Dallas turned to backups Terence Steele and Connor McGovern to replace them. Then, star left tackle Tyron Smith suffered a severe knee injury in practice, thrusting developmental rookie Tyler Smith into the starting lineup. Dallas signed 40-year-old tackle Jason Peters to the practice squad in an effort to save the line, but he may need a few weeks to get ready. Dallas enters Week 1 with an offensive line far worse than last year's first-ranked unit.
Dallas' defense ranked second in DVOA but benefited from an unsustainable number of turnovers. Cornerback Trevon Diggs intercepted 11 passes last year but was often a liability in coverage because of his aggressive playstyle. He ranked second-worst in yards allowed per target among high-volume cornerbacks. Now that NFL head coaches have the film to study Diggs -- and a full offseason to gameplan for his tricks -- his turnover production should drop precipitously, and Dallas' defensive performance along with it.
Buccaneers vs. Cowboys Prediction
The Buccaneers won't be as good as they were last season. Still, the Cowboys will be much worse than they were last year. Their ramshackle offensive line will struggle to start the year, and it'll limit both Ezekiel Elliott and Dak Prescott. Tampa Bay's stocky defensive front will exploit the Cowboys' new starters and limit their scoring ability.
That said, Tom Brady may not have his full set of wide receivers to target on Sunday Night Football -- both Chris Godwin and Russell Gage are questionable. But backups Breshad Perriman and Scotty Miller are more than capable, plus Mike Evans, Julio Jones and Cameron Brate are all healthy. Look for Tampa Bay's offense to score enough for the Buccaneers to win and cover on the road.
Best NFL Bet: Buccaneers -2.5 (-110) at BetMGM
