The AFC West hasn’t lived up to its preseason hype, as the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers are the only two teams in the division with a winning record. They will square off on Sunday Night Football this week as the Chargers hope to get revenge over their three-point loss in Arrowhead on Week 2. Nonetheless, it’s time to discuss our Chargers-Chiefs predictions and picks.
The Chiefs won three-straight and have the best record in the AFC at 7-2 behind the brilliance of quarterback Patrick Mahomes. They are undefeated in division play and are five-point road favorites this week. Seven of the Chiefs’ last eight road games have gone over the total points line, so they will be looking to get into a scoring frenzy on the road.
With a 1-3 home record and their only victory coming by three points against the Broncos, the Chargers have basically no home advantage. However, they have won three of their last five games and looked great last Sunday Night leading by double digits in the first half, before eventually losing to the 49ers by six points as they failed to score in the second half. This Chargers offense is inconsistent, but they will likely be getting both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back from injury this week.
With a 52-point total we may be in for a high-scoring treat Sunday Night.
Chargers-Chiefs Predictions
Can We Get Another 40-Ball?
Playing on the road has brought some sort of comfort to the Chiefs offense this season. They have scored over 40 points in three of their four road games, most notably against the Buccaneers and 49ers who have very strong defenses. Patrick Mahomes leads the league in both passing yards and touchdowns as he continues to play at an MVP-caliber level. He has averaged 384.5 passing yards over the last four games with 10 touchdowns. He is starting to heat up.
The Chiefs have the fourth-highest pass rate in the league as their three-headed running back committee hasn’t gotten the job done this season. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been completely phased out of this offense for rookie seventh-round pick Isiah Pacheco. Edwards-Helaire only logged four snaps last week as Pacheco saw a season-high 35 and 16 touches. Head Coach Andy Reid could deploy a hot hand approach, but as of now this is Pacheco’s backfield.
With Mecole Hardman on injured reserve, JuJu Smith-Schuster out for this game, and Marquez Valdes-Scantling playing through an illness, the Chiefs wide receiving core will be in shambles. Rookie Skyy Moore, newly acquired Kadarius Toney, and Justin Watson will more than likely be thrust into prominent roles this week. Toney caught a touchdown last week as Watson was second in the group playing 46 snaps. Moore is a gadget type of player that may not be ready for a big role just yet. Either way, this group is hurting in a big way with injuries.
Luckily Travis Kelce is healthy as he continues to lead the Chiefs in every receiving category. He is Mahomes’ security blanket as he has at least seven targets in every game this season. Kelce has tied or has led the Chiefs pass-catchers in targets all but one game this season. It just so happened to be last week when running back Jerick McKinnon had eight targets to Kelce’s seven. With no Hardman and Smith-Schuster, expect a double digit target night from Kelce.
The Chargers have been a run-funnel defense, so it will be very interesting to see how this game plays out with the Chiefs high pass rate. Through 10 weeks, the Chargers defense ranks 12th in pass DVOA and 29th in rush DVOA per football outsiders. Their offense may be without a few playmakers, but they’ll find a way to put points on the board.
Full Arsenal Back for the Chargers?
Getting Keenan Allen and Mike Williams would change the outlook on this game dramatically. Allen has only played in two games all season as he has dealt with a nagging hamstring injury. Williams has missed three-straight weeks with an ankle injury. He was supposed to miss a minimum of four weeks, but he expects to play this week which will greatly help the Chargers aerial attack that has been nonexistent without their top two weapons.
Justin Herbert hasn’t topped 300 passing yards in five-straight weeks. Not only are the passing yards down, but Herbert hasn’t thrown for over two touchdowns in a game since back-to-back games to start the season. His completion percentage and QBR are at a career-low, but it’s tough to come at Herbert without his two elite pass-catchers.
With Herbert struggling and playing without Allen and Williams, the Chargers offense has fed Austin Ekeler as much as he can handle. Over the last four weeks, Ekeler is averaging nine receptions on 12 targets per game. Despite most of his production coming through the air, he does have one explosion rushing spot where he ran for 173 yards against the Browns. Getting Williams and Allen back this week will take some of the pressure off of Ekeler.
Wide receivers Joshua Palmer, DeAndre Carter and even tight end Gerald Everett had their moments with Williams and Allen out of the lineup. They will likely take a back seat moving forward, but can still have boom performances any given week. Carter and Everett each have two touchdowns, while Palmer leads the trio in receiving yards, receptions, and targets. The Chiefs defense ranks 22nd in pass DVOA, so this receiving core will be relied on heavily.
To keep up with the Chiefs offense, the Chargers will need to find a way to get touchdowns on the board. The Chiefs lead the league in scoring this season with 30 points per game, while the Chargers rank in the middle of the pack with 22.2 per game. Playing at home with a full arsenal of talent, expect the Chargers compete this week.
Best Chargers-Chiefs Bet
The over looks very enticing and a lot of trends point towards this over, except for primetime games have gone under at a historic rate this season. With that being said and uncertainty with the Chiefs wide receiving core, I am taking the Chargers at +5. The spread came down from +6.5, but getting Keenan Allen and Mike Williams back, this Chargers offense should flourish. Both teams will put up points, but I wouldn’t mind a sprinkle on the Chargers moneyline in this game either.
A player prop to target using Oddsshopper.com is Austin Ekeler under 42.5 receiving yards. This prop has an xWin rate of 54% in our Stokastic projections and with Allen and Williams back in the lineup, Ekeler may see much less in the passing game and more on the ground. Regardless, we’re betting the Chargers despite not having a home field advantage. It is simple. They are full healthy, while the Chiefs are trying a makeshift lineup at wide receiver.
Best Chargers-Chiefs Bet: Chargers +5 (-110) at DraftKings Sportsbook
