The Chargers and Colts square off in Indianapolis on Monday, with Los Angeles eyeing the playoffs and Indianapolis trying to salvage anything from a massively disappointing season. Nick Foles will take the helm for the Colts in this mismatch of a Monday Night Football game, and OddsShopper’s tools and Parlay Builder are a great resource for building a Chargers-Colts same-game parlay that takes advantage of the projected game script.
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Chargers-Colts Same Game Parlay: Week 16 MNF
With an emphasis on the anemic Colts passing game, Week 16’s Monday Night Football parlay comes from FanDuel, which as of writing provides the best odds on several of the bets here. This parlay utilized OddsShopper’s tools to find the bets with the highest expected win rate, and then upped the odds with a correlative wild card play.
Chargers Moneyline (-198)
This is the easiest bet to begin a parlay, as there is very little going Indianapolis’ way offensively as of late. Yes, last week’s horrifying loss to the Minnesota Vikings saw them score 33 points in the first half, but the Colts managed only one offensive touchdown while scoring 14 points via defense and special teams. That is obviously not sustainable, and Nick Foles stepping in for the washed Matt Ryan is unlikely to get them headed in the right direction.
Indianapolis may put up some points and hang with the Chargers early; they’ve done so the last couple weeks with playoff-bound teams. But the Colts’ performances in second halves make it abundantly clear that they are capable of completely losing — perhaps even likely to completely lose — themselves at any given time. Indianapolis has lost four games in a row — granted, via a tough stretch of opponents — and the Chargers are hitting something resembling a stride heading for the playoffs.
This bet has OddsShopper’s highest expected win rate of any on tonight’s slate (67%).
Nick Foles Under 1.5 Touchdowns Passing (-174)
The thought process here is pretty simple: Regardless of who the quarterback is, it is tough to imagine Indianapolis having a particularly productive game. The offensive line had difficulties keeping Ryan upright, and even the more mobile Sam Ehlinger found himself on the ground a ton in his two starts. Despite the team throwing the seventh-most pass attempts in the NFL, it ranks 22nd in touchdowns passing, averaging exactly one per game. A Colts quarterback hit this over just once in the last eight games. Maybe Foles is a change of pace — but the offensive line and lackluster receiving corps remain the same.
The Chargers are nothing special in terms of preventing touchdowns through the air (21st in the NFL), but against a team that can barely find the end zone period (let alone via the pass), being adequate will allow this under to hit. This bet has OddsShopper’s highest expected win rate of any player prop tonight.
Deon Jackson Over 10.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
Zack Moss Under 8.5 Yards Receiving (-110)
These two wagers correlate somewhat, so it makes sense to throw in Zack Moss‘ receiving prop to boost the parlay odds. With the Colts passing game struggles, particularly in pass protection, it stands to reason that Foles will look to target his running back more often. However, Moss is probably not going to be that guy. Stokastic projects him to see more rushing work than Deon Jackson, but Jackson is the far safer bet to factor in the receiving game.
Moss has seen a grand total of one target in his time with the Colts (since Week 10), and that target resulted in an incompletion. Even with Buffalo, he rarely factored into the passing game; he has not hit the over on this prop line since Week 1.
Meanwhile, with Jonathan Taylor out for the year, Jackson figures to be the Colts primary pass-catching back, with virtually no competition for that role. He has not exactly lit the world on fire in that department either — only hitting the over three times all season and seeing just one target in each of the last two games — but Foles is savvy enough to check it down, something that could not be said about Ryan.
This additional wager with Moss is more of a swing to boost the parlay odds, so leave that leg out if opting for a three-leg parlay. Jackson’s over has an expected win rate over 50%, whereas Moss’ under is slightly below that mark.
Chargers-Colts Parlay Odds: +365 Without Moss Leg, +764 With Moss Leg
