After a brutal loss to the Detroit Lions, the Jacksonville Jaguars will look to right the ship against the Tennessee Titans. Unfortunately, their starting quarterback, Trevor Lawrence, suffered a toe injury last week, and he is questionable after missing practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. We will keep you posted on the latest Trevor Lawrence injury updates as they become available. The Titans are 3.5-point favorites in the NFL odds, and bettors looking for a positive return should tail these Jaguars-Titans predictions and pick — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp bets.
NFL Odds: Jaguars-Titans Odds
Trevor Lawrence Injury Update
The Jaguars entered this season with hopes of last year’s first overall pick, Trevor Lawrence, taking a big step forward. Although the first-round quarterback has looked solid, the Jaguars still have a ways to go as a franchise. Still, they’re not quite out of the divisional race — although a loss to the Titans would mathematically eliminate them from contention.
Jacksonville currently slots in at 24th in team defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA), an improvement over its 32nd-place ranking from last season. The offense has led the charge and ranks 17th in the metric. Jacksonville’s offense even ranks 13th in yards per play (5.6) and eighth in expected points added (EPA) per dropback (0.12) — although having to start a limited Lawrence or a backup in C.J. Beathard would likely hurt their production. Lawrence ranks a solid 16th in adjusted EPA per play among the 54 quarterbacks to have played at least 25 snaps (0.12).
Jacksonville’s rushing attack has looked great at points too. After a slow start, running back Travis Etienne Jr. took the NFL by storm. He went for 100-plus rushing yards from Week 7 to Week 9 before slowing down due to negative game scripts and injury concerns. But because his volume ticked down more than his efficiency, bettors should expect a still-solid and fresher Etienne to take the field in Nashville on Sunday.
The defense has made some progress but not much. Jacksonville ranks 29th in defensive DVOA and 23rd in yards allowed per play (5.7). Their passing defense ranks a putrid 28th in EPA per dropback (0.14). The secondary deserves most of the blame, as the pass rush ranks a decent 12th in pressure percentage (23.1%) and 13th in pass-rush win rate. The defensive front has also looked decent against the run and ranks 12th in EPA per rush (-0.08) and 20th in run-stop win rate. The Jaguars have allowed only 83 rushing yards per game to running backs.
Tennessee Without Multiple Defenders
At 7-5, the Tennessee Titans have a 98% chance of winning the AFC South. Those odds would drop 88% if they were to lose Sunday’s game to the Jaguars. Despite the fact they appear destined for a playoff berth, the Titans haven’t looked great. They rank an uninspiring 16th in team DVOA behind their 12th-ranked defense. Unfortunately, multiple defensive starters are banged up. Defensive end Denico Autry and linebacker David Long Jr. are both out, as is cornerback Kristian Fulton.
Tennessee’s offense hasn’t carried the torch this year. They rank only 20th in offensive DVOA and 23rd in yards per play (5.2). As usual, head coach Mike Vrabel has leaned on Derrick Henry and the rushing attack this year. The Titans rank third in rushing play percentage (51%) and take the most seconds per play (31.4). Yet despite Tennessee’s slow, deliberate offense, the Titans rank only 21st in average time of possession (29:22), in no small part because the rushing offense ranks only 28th in EPA per play (-0.11).
Although the Titans have been hesitant to pass, quarterback Ryan Tannehill remains a solid option. He ranks 13th in adjusted EPA per pass attempt (0.13). Still, the Titans rank only 15th in EPA per dropback (0.08) as a team because of a limited receiving corps and poor play by backup Malik Willis. With leading receiver Treylon Burks out with a concussion, Tannehill will have even fewer weapons to work with on Sunday.
Tennessee’s defense has played well but not perfectly. The Titans may field an above-average unit in defensive DVOA, but they rank only 18th in yards allowed per play (5.5) and 19th in EPA per dropback (0.08). Tennessee’s strength has been its stocky run defense, as the Titans’ defense rank second in EPA per rush (-0.15). However, leading tackler David Long Jr. is out. Defensive linemen Jeffery Simmons and Teair Tart, who both rank top-10 in run-stop win rate, are both questionable as well.
Final Jaguars-Titans Prediction & Pick
The Titans opened as 4-point favorites, but their advantage has narrowed to just 3.5. Vegas seems confident that Trevor Lawrence will play, although the books are yet to post props for Jacksonville’s players because of his questionable tag. Still, ESPN reports that he is expected to play. As a result, bettors should take the Jaguars plus the points.
Tennessee’s defense lacks the depth necessary to limit Jacksonville’s offense. The Titans may need reserve linebackers to step up at positions they aren’t used to playing. They also lack available reserves in the secondary as both starting cornerback Kristian Fulton and backup Tre Avery are out. The Titans may own solid defensive numbers this season, but don’t expect their defense to do much against Jacksonville this Sunday.
Final Jaguars-Titans Pick: Jaguars +3.5 (-110) at BetMGM
Jaguars-Titans Prediction OddsShopper Model
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