Betting on the NFL early in the week often presents the best opportunity to find value, especially when it comes to totals. Getting the best number available before the odds move is key to becoming a successful bettor. In Week 10, there is a slate of 14 games to look at in the NFL betting odds market. Last week’s article split the board, going 3-3.
Below are three of the best NFL bets on the board this week plus two additional bets, with a focus on totals. Check out all of the best NFL Week 10 picks, and be sure to use OddsShopper’s NFL line shopping tool when looking for the best value on bets.
NFL Week 10 Best Bets for Game and Team Totals
Vikings at Bills (Bills -4.5, 45)
The time to play this under was right when the number was posted at 49.5 on Sunday night, but it is mid-week now and the number is 45.5. The total is still in play because, with Josh Allen out or not at 100%, this should be a low-scoring game. The side has moved from -7.5 to -4.5, so Vegas is assuming that Case Keenum will start.
The Bills have played one game with a score over 45, which was Week 2 against the Titans (41-7), and they have not allowed an opponent to score over 20 points in eight games. The Bills are 1-7 to the under, including six games in a row of going under. The totals in those games have been 37, 44, 44, 41, 43 and 40. The one concern is the number of injuries to the Bills defense. Spencer Brown, Greg Rousseau, Matt Milano, Tre’Davious White and Jordan Poyer are all listed as questionable.
The Vikings are a surprising 7-1 and have a firm lead on the NFC North. They have gone under in three out of four road games, with totals of 31, 53, 40 and 37.
This is a must-win game for the Bills coming off the divisional road loss to the Jets. The Vikings have the Cowboys at home next Sunday, and it definitely feels like a look-ahead spot. The Bills should win a close one by a score of around 20-17.
Best Bet: UNDER 45.5 (DraftKings -110); Vikings UNDER 20.5
Lions at Bears (Bears -3, 48.5)
A month ago, a play like this would have been crazy, but now it looks like the Bears unlocked their offense in the 33-14 Monday night win against the Patriots. Chicago has scored 33, 29 and 32 points over the last three weeks, and now it gets the Lions on the road, who allow 29.2 points per game (32nd). The Bears’ first half numbers are also strong, with 20, 17 and 17 points in the last three games. Justin Fields is relying on what he knows, which are his legs and setting records for quarterback yards rushing.
Even though the Bears defense has been allowing points, this Lions offense has posted 0, 6, 27 and 15 points over the last four games. They are not trustworthy enough to look at this game total, so play the Bears team totals for the first half and full game.
Best Bet: Bears OVER 25.5; Bears OVER 12.5 First Half
Browns at Dolphins (Dolphins -3.5, 48.5)
Now that Tua Tagovailoa is back healthy, this Miami offense is setting records. The combination of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle is on pace to set the receiving record for a duo on the same team. With such a prolific passing game, the over is always in play. In games that Tagovailoa has started and finished, the Dolphins are averaging 27.5 points per game. Of course, both sides need to contribute in order for overs to hit; the Dolphins defense allows 24.9 points per game (25th) and the Browns are also at 24.9 points per game allowed.
The last two Dolphins games have seen scores of 31-27 and 35-32. Look for more of the same this week, with a Dolphins 33-30 win.
Best Bet: OVER 48.5; Dolphins OVER 26.5
