Betting on the NFL early in the week often presents the best opportunity to find value, especially when it comes to totals. Getting the best number available before the odds move is key to becoming a successful bettor. In Week 9, there is a slate of 13 games to look at in the NFL betting odds market. Last week’s article swept the board, going 3-0.
Below are four of the best NFL bets on the board this week, with a focus on totals. Check out all of the best NFL Week 9 picks, and be sure to use OddsShopper’s NFL line shopping tool when looking for the best value on bets.
NFL Week 9 Best Bets for Game and Team Totals
Eagles-Texans (Eagles -14, 45)
This is actually a bonus pick with the game on Thursday night, instead of sticking with the Sunday/Monday slate. How can one pass up a prop that has hit 100% of the time this season? That’s the Philadelphia Eagles over first half, and though it is up to 14.5, they will get to at least 17 points in this spot against the Houston Texans.
The Eagles’ offensive efficiency in the first half has been remarkable. Opposing defenses are not able to figure them out until they make second-half adjustments, but by that time the Eagles have already built a substantial lead and can just run the ball and slow down the game.
The Eagles are 7-0 and have a very real shot at going undefeated. Motivation will not be an issue here against a weak Texans defense.
Final Eagles-Texans pick: Eagles OVER 14.5 first half
Dolphins at Bears (Dolphins -3.5, 45.5)
The over was the play last week when the Miami Dolphins visited the Detroit Lions, and we’ll continue going over in Dolphins games now that quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is healthy. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle have the most receiving yards by a wide receiver duo through eight games in NFL history. The Dolphins did acquire running back Jeff Wilson Jr. before the NFL Trade Deadline on Tuesday, but this team is going to continue to fire away in the air at a record pace.
The Chicago Bears traded away a defensive player (linebacker Roquan Smith) and traded for an offensive player (Chase Claypool) this week. This will impact their defense allowing more points, but their offense should be able to score more after putting up 33 and 29 points in the past two games.
In order for a team total to hit the over, it needs to press and not let up. That is what Miami has to do in this game. It’s surprising this total is not pushing more toward 47-48 points, and it might end up there by Sunday.
Final Dolphins-Bears pick: Dolphins OVER 25.5 (DraftKings -110); Game Total OVER 45.5
Bills-Jets (Bills -13, 47)
Another game that cashed last week was the under for the Green Bay Packers at the Buffalo Bills. It’s shocking this total came in at 47, considering the Bills defense vs. the New York Jets offense. It would have expected to be in the 44- to 45-point range. The Bills have gone under in six out of seven, including five in a row. They have not allowed more than 21 points in any game this season. Something that has been overlooked during the Jets’ recent run is their defense, which has allowed only 78 points in the past five games. A Jets team coming off a bad home loss in a divisional game now taking on the home-dog role looks to be in a very good position. They should be able to keep this close, and it will be lower scoring and go under the total: Bills 27, Jets 17.
Final Bills-Jets Pick: UNDER 47
Chargers-Falcons (Chargers -3, 49.5)
The Los Angeles Chargers offense is getting healthy after WR Keenan Allen and Justin Herbert had been dealing with nagging injuries during the first few weeks. Their passing offense ranks fourth in yardage, which is something to look for when betting totals to go over.
The Chargers have gone under 48 twice this season — Week 1 vs. the Las Vegas Raiders 24-19 (43) and Week 6 vs. the Denver Broncos 19-16 (35) — and have hit at least 48 five times. The Los Angeles defense is 31st in points allowed at 27.0. The Atlanta Falcons defense ranks 29th in points allowed at 25.6 and is last in passing yards allowed (306.9). The Lions/Dolphins game was an offensive explosion last week, and this game will be even higher scoring with a surprising total of 49.5 points. Considering the recent high scoring games for both teams, north of 60 points is possible with a 34-31 finish.
Final Chargers-Falcons Pick: over 49.5 (DraftKings -110); Chargers OVER 26.5 (DraftKings -110)
