While it seems insane to say, the Chiefs spent a majority of the season underrated at this point as the Bills glamor shined over everyone. With the Bills suffering injury woes and showing cracks in the armor, the Chiefs have just kept rolling along with Patrick Mahomes on his way to an MVP. Will the Rams be able to keep up?
NFL Odds: Rams-Chiefs Odds
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Mahomes Needs to Let It Fly
Even without Tyreek Hill and his receivers dropping like flies periodically throughout the season, Mahomes has gotten the job done by leading the Chiefs to the No. 2 pass DVOA and No. 1 overall DVOA. The Mahomes-Travis Kelce connection has been the staple, with Kelce commanding defensive attention. Mahomes will need his star weapons production should they want to get the large cover.
Mahomes has thrown for over 300 yards in his last five games, and he can easily hit that mark again,with a heavy dose of the pass in the game script. The Rams struggle to generate backfield pressure in the pass and rank 26th in defensive pass DVOA.
The Los Angeles run defense is elite, ranking fifth in defensive run DVOA, so instead the Chiefs will likely put the game in Mahomes’ hands to attack the weak Rams secondary.
How Will Rams Generate Offense?
As if this season couldn’t have gotten any worse for the reigning Super Bowl champions, the Rams now go into this one without Matthew Stafford, who is in concussion protocols. This comes on the heels of losing Cooper Kupp, who is undergoing surgery and is out for a minimum of four weeks.
The Stafford-Kupp connection was the lone bright spot for the offense, as everyone else has failed to sustain consistent production. A lack of run game and the disappearing act of Allen Robinson have led this team to near the bottom of the ranks across the board in DVOA. The offensive line is facing injury issues as well, taking a massive blow to the interior of the line. Third-string quarterback Bryce Perkins may be in for a long night under center. Even against a typical soft Chiefs defense, the Rams will not be able sustain any on-field success, with Perkins potentially under constant pressure.
Final Rams-Chiefs Prediction & Pick
With the Rams fielding a hobbled offense and a weak pass defense, the Chiefs should cover a large spread that is backed by historic success. Andy Reid is 4-1 against the spread when his teams are favored by 14.5 or more. Going even deeper, teams are 23-11-2 against the spread when favored by -14 or more as well.
Final Rams-Chiefs Prediction: Kansas City -15.5
