Going into Week 5 and still without their starting quarterback, no one expected the Dallas Cowboys to have a better record than the reigning Super Bowl champion Los Angeles Rams.
The Rams are getting off to hot starts every week, as they have been the first team to score in their last nine games against NFC opponents. However, after the start of games, this Rams offense slows down considerably. The Rams rank 23rd in pace of play in neutral game situations. That is partially why this game total is set at just 43 points.
The Rams opened the week as 4.5-point favorites, but that number has climbed to -5.5 which is where it sits as of the writing of this article. That is a good chunk of points for a team that struggles so much in games after they get out of the starting gates.
Let’s dive in to see if they are worth that number and also find a player prop that we can target in this NFC showdown.
Rams vs Cowboys NFL Week 5 Picks & Predictions
Is Anyone Else Open Besides Kupp?
The Rams will look to rebound after not scoring a single touchdown against the 49ers last week on Monday Night Football. The Cowboys defense is equally as tough as the 49ers were, so the Rams have their work cutout for them. The Cowboys have kept their first four opponents under 20 points for the first time since 1973. They rank fifth in total defense and pass defense DVOA this season. This Micah Parsons-led defense is tied for second in the league with 15 sacks through four weeks.
There is reason to be concerned about the Rams offensive line going against Parsons and company on Sunday. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford was sacked seven times last week for the second time this season and he added to his league-high interception total. This is the first year since Stafford was a rookie that he has thrown more interceptions than passing touchdowns. That’s a little odd because at the same time, he has also delivered on a career-high 70.7% completion percentage.
Stafford often looks to only one option on the field and that option is wide receiver Cooper Kupp. Kupp leads the next closest receiver by double digit catches, grabbing 42 receptions already. He also has a league-leading 36% target share and is coming off of a 19-target game last week. Kupp will continue to be heavily peppered in this matchup.
Despite adding wide receiver Allen Robinson in the off-season, it has been tight end Tyler Higbee who ranks second on the team in receptions, targets and receiving yards. Higbee tied his career-high with 14 targets last week as he hauled in 10 catches for a season-high 73 yards. Through four weeks, Robinson hasn’t topped 100 total yards yet! He does have a touchdown, but with only a 12% target share, Robinson’s role in the offense seems almost non-existent.
The Rams running back situation hasn’t been great and that is where to attack this Cowboys defense. Darrel Henderson Jr. and Cam Akers both are failing to crack the top-40 in rushing yards this season. They each have just one touchdown, while this split backfield has combined for just 3.6 rushing yards per carry. This offense needs balance, especially with Stafford leading the league in interceptions, but the defending champions just don’t look that good right now.
No Dak, No Problem?
Since losing quarterback Dak Prescott in Week 1, the Cowboys have won three-straight games behind the brilliant play of Cooper Rush. Prescott was hoping to come back this week, but not having a firm grip on the ball will allow for another Rush start. Luckily, Rush has done more than enough to keep the Cowboys train on the right track.
This matchup will be a true test to for Rush because he will likely need to do a little extra against the Rams who rank 3rd in rush defense DVOA and 25th in pass defense DVOA. The Rams have only allowed 92.3 rushing yards per game through the first four weeks. That will make it difficult for Ezekiel Elliott and Tony Pollard to have much of an impact in this game. Both backs still have breakaway ability, but Rush is going to have to play very well again this Sunday.
Wide receiver CeeDee Lamb leads the Cowboys aerial attack across every receiving category. He isn’t as heavily targeted as Kupp, but Lamb ranks third among all players with a 32.1% target share. Last week was the first game in which Lamb was not targeted double digit times all season. Lamb has really started to take that next leap forward in his third season.
Getting wide receiver Michael Gallup and tight end Dalton Schultz back from injury has really elevated this Cowboys offense. The more weapons the better for Cooper Rush. Gallup scored last week and Schultz was second behind Lamb in snap count among all pass catchers. Both will be used heavily in this game, especially if the Cowboys’ running game becomes stagnant.
A 3-1 start to the season is great, but a victory over the defending champions can propel the Cowboys into next week against the only undefeated team left in the league, the Philadelphia Eagles. This may be the last start of the season for quarterback Cooper Rush with Dak Prescott expected back soon. Although there may be a quarterback controversy if Rush and the Cowboys win this week.
Rams vs. Cowboys Pick
Dating back to last season the Cowboys have covered nine of their last 10 road games. They have also won each of their last four games as moderate underdogs (+3.5 to +7.0 points). I love the Cowboys in this game as their defense should get heavy pressure on Stafford and make it difficult for the Rams to move the ball. Rush has proved to be a winner and even if he is asked to provide more from the passing game, he can do that against this pass-funnel defense.
Expect this game to be a little more on the low scoring end this Sunday, which will give the Cowboys plenty of opportunity to cover the 5.5-point spread. Five of the Rams’ last six games have gone under the total points line. Taking a sprinkle on the moneyline is also very intriguing.
Look for a player prop in this game? Look no further than OddsShopper, which has plenty of prop options for this Rams and Cowboys showdown. The best option is Rams running back Cam Akers under wide 6.5 receiving yards. Stokastic projects Akers 5.6 receiving yards, while this prop has an xWin rate of 67% and an xROI rate of 23%. Akers has two catches for 18 yards on four targets so far this season. Most of the pass-game work has gone to fellow running back Darrel Henderson Jr.
Back America’s Team and don’t be afraid to take a sprinkle on the moneyline.
Best NFL Bet: Dallas Cowboys +5.5 (-110) at DraftKings | Moneyline sprinkle +190
