The Houston Texans announced that they would turn to backup quarterback Kyle Allen over Davis Mills this week. Houston’s season is functionally over at 1-8-1, and Mills has played poorly enough for Houston to easily move on from him as their starter. Allen now gets his first shot as a starter since 2020. Bettors looking for a positive return on Sunday’s action should tail these Texans-Dolphins picks and predictions — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays on NFL odds.
NFL Odds: Texans-Dolphins Odds
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Houston Making a QB Change
The Texans don’t have a fun road trip ahead of them. That’s to be expected as the NFL’s worst team in total defense-adjusted value over average (DVOA). The silver lining for Houston is that their 1-8-1 record puts them in a position to earn the first-overall pick in this year’s draft, allowing them to draft a quarterback like C.J. Stroud or Bryce Young.
Houston’s offense has struggled all season. They rank 31st in offensive DVOA and 31st in expected points added (EPA) per pass (0.01). However, Dameon Pierce and the rushing offense have been a bright spot as the unit ranks 22nd in EPA per rush (-0.14). Pierce trails only Derrick Henry in total broken tackles (22). Notably, Pierce hasn’t gotten much help from his offensive line — the Texans rank 25th in offensive line yards and 30th in run-block win rate.
Replacing Davis Mills with Kyle Allen should give the offense a slight boost. Mills ranks 29th among 35 quarterbacks in net yards per attempt (NY/A) with 5.4. He also leads the NFL in interceptions (11). FiveThirtyEight’s model gives Mills just 81 Elo points. In contrast, Allen has 111 Elo points, putting him ahead of guys like Carson Wentz (109) and Sam Darnold (91). That said, Allen has taken sacks at a higher rate than Mills throughout his career, which could become an issue behind Houston’s porous offensive line.
Houston’s defense has also struggled. The Texans rank 29th in defensive DVOA and 27th in yards allowed per play (5.8). They haven’t struggled against one particular thing — the defense ranks 27th in both EPA per pass (0.123) and per rush (0.01) — so the Dolphins should get whatever they want. Opposing teams have often preferred to just keep the ball on the ground — the Texans lead the NFL in rushing yards allowed per game (178.9), which is one of their few statistical bright spots.
Miami Increasingly Willing to Run
Sunday’s contest should be a layup win for the Dolphins, at least on paper. They’ll face an awful Texans team fresh off their bye week. That said, Dolphins’ head coach Mike McDaniel must be careful not to look ahead to next week’s road trip to San Francisco, where McDaniel will face off with his former head coach, Kyle Shanahan. Even if the Dolphins do get caught sleeping early, they rank an impressive seventh in total DVOA and should be able to escape with a win.
Miami’s passing offense, anchored by quarterback Tua Tagovailoa, has impressed this season. The Dolphins rank second in both offensive DVOA and yards per play (6.4). They also rank second in EPA per pass (0.24). Tagovailoa’s 8.59 NY/A leads the NFL by over a yard. With 220 Elo points, Tagovailoa trails only three quarterbacks.
The Dolphins have only recently begun to work on their running game. They ran the ball only 35.2% of the time in September but have run 44.6% of the time over their last three games. The addition of ex-49er Jeff Wilson may account for McDaniel’s recent willingness to run, as Wilson has run the ball 26 times in his two games as a Dolphin. He turned those touches into an impressive 170 yards, good for 6.54 yards per carry.
Miami’s defense has left much to be desired. The Dolphins rank only 23rd in defensive DVOA and 21st in yards allowed per play (5.7). Their passing defense has played terribly and ranks a dismal 29th in EPA per play (0.14). Miami’s struggles stem from an inability to generate pressure, as the Dolphins rank only 24th in pressure percentage (18.8%).
Final Texans-Dolphins Prediction & Pick
Sunday’s mismatch should result in a blowout. However, Miami’s defensive struggles have led them to just a 5-5 record against the spread. The Dolphins failed to cover in should-have-been blowouts against Chicago and Pittsburgh, so backing them to cover a full 14 points feels like an unnecessary risk. The Texans have even covered both of their double-digit spreads this season.
Backing Jeff Wilson’s rushing props would be sharp if the books hadn’t gassed up the total. Raheem Mostert is doubtful for Sunday’s contest, so Wilson’s total sits all the way up at 80.5 — a number he has cleared just seven times in his career. With his anytime touchdown props at -210, bettors are better off staying away.
Instead, bettors should buy a spread/total parlay. BetMGM has listed the Dolphins -6.5/Over 40.5 at odds of -115, and it’s hard to see how that line misses. The Dolphins have gone over totals of 46 or higher in their last three games. They have covered a full touchdown just twice all season, but the strong complementary football they played against the Browns in Week 10 led them to a 22-point win.
Final Texans-Dolphins Pick: Dolphins -6.5/Over 40.5 (-115 for 1.15 Units) at BetMGM
Texans-Dolphins OddsShopper Model Prediction
OddsShopper’s industry-leading tools allow bettors to identify the best available lines on all sorts of betting markets, from traditional spreads and totals to player props — and even quarter- or half-based derivatives! Bettors can sign up for an OddsShopper account to access our model’s predictions and best bets for each game. For the Week 12 Texans-Dolphins matchup, the model has identified a Houston running back as a player to fade at his current price.
Betting the under on Dameon Pierce‘s total receiving yards yields the highest expected ROI of any prop, spread or total for this game. Bettors looking to take advantage of that line can head to DraftKings for the best price on the market!
