The Giants have been a pleasant surprise this year, posting a 6-2 record heading into last week’s bye. They would be a No. 6 seed in the NFC Playoffs if the regular season ended today. Much of their success is owed to new head coach Brian Daboll. On the other hand, The Texans are on the fast track to the No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. Nevertheless, there is a lot to analyze in this Giants-Texans matchup to find the best prediction and pick.
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NFL Odds: Texans-Giants Odds
Spread: Giants -5.5 (-105)
Moneyline: Giants (-225); Titans (+188)
Over/Under: 41.5 (-115)
Texans Searching for Positives
This has been a terrible year for the Texans. They didn’t have high hopes entering the season, but somehow they have still managed to disappoint. The team opened their campaign with a tie against the Colts and earned their lone victory in Week 5, a 13-6 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars. Those are the only positives in the standings for this team.
The Texans have dropped three in a row since their bye in Week 6, including double-digit defeats to the Las Vegas Raiders and Philadelphia Eagles. That being said, because the Texans are so awful, they are actually a decent team to bet on. They are 4-3-1 against the spread, which includes covering as a 14-point underdog in last week’s loss to the Eagles.
That probably explains why sharp money has moved the spread so much this week. There has been significant line movement since betting opened. Still, backing a team that averages 16.6 points per game- 28th in the NFL- takes courage.
Brian Daboll Is the Key
Brian Daboll is in position to win Coach of the Year because of what he’s done with this team in his first year at the helm. The Giants are one win away from matching their preseason implied win total. They will certainly accomplish that feat in one of the next two weeks with a matchup against the Detroit Lions on deck after the Texans.
Daboll’s presence is felt most in their ability to make halftime adjustments. The Giants have been a much better team in the second half all season, ranking fourth in the NFL with an average of 12.9 points per game over the final two quarters. They’ve allowed nine points per game in the second half, which is the 10th-best average in the league.
New York’s 27-13 loss to the Seattle Seahawks snapped a four-game win streak. The Giants have had plenty of time to learn from that defeat, especially under this coaching staff. They should be prepared to take care of business against an inferior Texans’ squad.
Final Texans-Giants Prediction & Pick
The line has adjusted too much on the total, and now there is a good opportunity to buy back on the under. FanDuel is offering the best odds on this wager, with -115 juice on the under of 41.5.
The Giants have been the definition of an under team this season, as six of their eight games have finished below the point total. The Texans are 4-4 on totals, but that is more due to the strength of their opponents.
Final Texans-Giants Pick: Under 41.5 Points (-115) at FanDuel
