Monday’s six-game slate offers several skaters in strong positions, including Connor McDavid, to reward prop backers, and our three player prop parlay prices out at +633. Let’s dive into the logic behind each play.
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Best NHL Parlay Bet | Nov. 28
Jonathan Marchessault Over 3.5 Shots on Goal +110 (Golden Knights versus Blue Jackets):
Marchessault generates a wealth of shot attempts both at even strength and on Vegas’ top powerplay unit, and is a stellar shot prop target on nights where Vegas can be expected to control far more of the play.
A matchup versus Columbus projects to be exactly that, particularly after the Knights was embarrassed in back-to-back contests at home on the weekend.
Vegas second unit of William Karlsson, Marchessault, and Reilly Smith has controlled play to an exceptional 61.9% expected goal rate and have consistently generated a wealth of attempts on goal leading to a 3.51 expected goals for per 60 mark.
That line is in an excellent matchup to dominate tonight and given all of that offensive zone time expecting Marchessault to surpass his 3.39 shot on goal average in this spot makes sense, and +110 is a strong price for a bet which has realistically proven to be 50/50 in any regular contest this season.
Mitch Marner Over 2.5 Shots On Goal -104 (Leafs versus Red Wings):
The noise around Toronto’s slow start seems to be dying off, and the same goes for Marner. If there’s a player who even more than most has proven to benefit from playing with confidence it’s Marner and entering this contest in a 16 game point streak certainly helps with the confidence.
Marner played his best game of the season Saturday versus Pittsburgh and recorded two points and eight shots on goal from 19:31 of time on ice. He is far from a shot first minded individual, but the notion that Marner needs to attempt a few more shots on net seems to be somewhat prominent and it’s reasonable to expect he follows up Saturday’s offensive performance with some more shot attempts.
Backing Marner in other prop markets is logical as well, but banking on Marner to continue firing the puck on goal is a market which could be undervalued moving forward.
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points -128 (Panthers vs Oilers):
It’s wild to see an NHL player posted at -128 to record two points, let alone to think that backing the over could have value. However, dating back to the start of last year’s postseason McDavid has posted two points or more in 23/37 (62.1%) games, which automatically makes -128 (56.1% implied probability) something worth considering.
Connor McDavid managed just two points over Edmonton’s 1-2-0 road trip, and the world’s best player will surely be quite unhappy with his play over that span.
Tonight’s contest at home is a massive spot for the Oilers, who at 11-10-0 are barely clinging on to the Western Conferences last Wildcard playoff berth.
To win tonight Edmonton is likely going to need four or more goals on the board, and it’s realistic to think they can get to that mark versus a Panthers side allowing 3.33 per game. McDavid will likely be a huge part of that, and this is a situation in which counting on a trademark performance after a disappointing road trip makes a lot of sense.
