Let’s dive into my three favorite player props from Halloween Monday’s light NHL slate, which include Tage Thompson, Adam Erne and Dmitry Orlov, who could each take advantage of recently elevated roles.
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*Odds courtesy of FanDuel.
Tonight’s NHL Player Props | October 28
Red Wings @ Sabres Tage Thompson Anytime Goal Scorer (+152 )
Thompson broke through with a massive two-goal, one assist performance in Buffalo’s win over Chicago on Saturday, and enters in a favorable matchup to follow that up Monday at home versus the Red Wings.
Detroit has allowed a middle of the pack goals against per game average of 3.00 thus far, however has played through a notably easy slate of competition altogether and will likely play to marginally worse results moving forward.
Over the last three contests Tage Thompson has generated 2.11 expected goals from 33 shot attempts, with an average of 0.703 xG per game.
That may not sound wildly encouraging, but it has to be considered that at +152 we only need Thompson to be scoring a goal 43% of the time to be profitable, and Thompson’s lethal shooting ability dictates he should be finishing chances off a better than league average rate of a large sample.
Adam Erne Anytime Goalscorer +450
From an entirely different vein as Thompson, we have Adam Erne, who is significantly less proven as a scorer, but holds value due to his elevation up to the Red Wings top line alongside Dylan Larkin and Lucas Raymond.
Erne is not without scoring touch and has managed two goals thus far this season, and if he remains on the top unit holds value at this number.
Dominik Kubalik was a cash cow to many bettors and DFS users over a four-game stretch of holding down the Red Wings top left wing spot, but was demoted to the Wings second unit last time out, with coach Derek Lalonde likely seeing potential with Erne’s two way play on the top unit and some more scoring touch on the second unit.
Erne managed one assist in that contest with 3 shot attempts in his first contest in this role and is a steady DFS play tonight as well.
Looking for prices on Erne to generate a point as opposed to just a goal is a strong idea as well, but most widely available sportsbooks have yet to post prices for Erne to record a point.
Watching for confirmations on the Red Wings confirmed forward units after warm-ups is a logical idea just to confirm Erne will hold on to the top unit, as we likely would never see prices altered regardless, and at that point backing Erne in some fashion is a really strong play.
Capitals vs Hurricanes Dmitry Orlov Over 0.5 Goals +690
John Carlson’s injury opens a massive role for Orlov on the Capitals powerplay, who skated this morning quarterbacking the top man advantage unit.
Dmitry Orlov is a very capable offensive defenseman and generated 12 goals and 44 assists a season ago, and five assists throughout nine games to open up this season.
When given the opportunity Orlov can certainly surprise with his well above average slap-shot from the point, and the chances he is able to display that asset tonight on the Capitals top powerplay unit are significantly higher than on an average night.
It was no fluke that Orlov generated 12 goals in 76 games last year, and the chances he breaks through with his first of this young season tonight are more reasonable than this incredible number suggests.
