Another Saturday full of puck drops in the NHL world as we try to identify a highlight matchup for bettors. Make sure to shop more bets using our OddsShopper tool. Now let’s get into our Coyotes – Senators prediction for Saturday afternoon.
Over the past two NHL seasons backing heavily favored home sides to cover the puck-line (-1.5) at plus-money has been an extremely profitable trend as a whole, let alone if we can use some logical reasoning to help eliminate a few duds.
Saturday we have a great spot to target exactly this trend, when the Arizona Coyotes visit the Ottawa Senators for the fifth game of a season opening six game Eastern road swing.
Ottawa are priced as high as +110 to cover the puck-line as of Friday afternoon. Let’s examine exactly why that number is far too long, and likely to be worse closer to game-time as the public piles in on this spot.
How bad can it get in the Desert?
Entering the campaign Arizona were favored to finish dead last in the NHL this season, and in the early going have shown exactly why.
The Coyotes 1-3-0 record has come with a -9 goal differential, with each loss coming by three or more goals. That dreadful margin is far from surprising considering the roster on hand, and the fact that Arizona’s expected goals rate of 36.22% is the lowest in the league by a decent margin.
To make matters worse, Arizona are now playing without top center Nick Schmaltz, who was one of the only Coyotes likely to produce above replacement level results this season.
That leaves Arizona with next to nothing in the way of offensive talent which moves the needle, and they face off against a team which could ultimately end up with one of the league’s better forward crops Saturday.
Ottawa Beginning to Surge?
Ottawa GM Pierre Dorion claimed a ton of headlines this offseason for bringing in two legitimate top-six forwards in Alex DeBrincat and Claude Giroux, with the hopes that his Senators could finally take meaningful strides forward after a painful rebuild.
The Senators played some very middling hockey throughout an 0-2 start to the season, but have bounced back with two convincing performances on home-ice over the Bruins and Capitals, and I believe this is the perfect spot for that strong play to continue.
Ottawa’s offence has broken out with 12 goals over it’s first two home games this season bringing a ton of excitement to Canadian Tire Centre crowds, which have been considerably larger and livelier than in years previous.
The Senators top two forward lines look lethal right now, and have found meaningful production where it matters, as well as elite analytical profiles.
Drake Batherson, Tim Stuetzle, and Brady Tkachuk should all arguably take steps forward this season, and have combined for 11 points in the season’s first three games, with an amazing xGF% of 66.7. Let’s dive deeper with our Coyotes – Senators prediction.
Ottawa’s new look “second” line of Alex DeBrincat, Josh Norris, and Claude Giroux hasn’t trailed far behind, as the three have combined for 6 points in three games, but could be due for more with a similarly dominant 65.5% expected goals share.
Honorable mention to Shane Pinto as well, who has looked really great in the early going centering the Senators third unit.
The Senators may not hold a notably strong set of blue-liners by any means, but Saturday’s contest should be the perfect spot to hide that flaw, as we can expect Ottawa to heavily outplay the Coyotes here and play a ton in the offensive zone. When making our Senators – Coyotes prediction we need to talk goaltending.
Behind that Anton Forsberg has been solid in goal for Ottawa with a +0.6 goals saved above expected rating through three starts, which is not surprising at all considering the quietly dominant run of form Forsberg settled into at the end of last season.
Final Coyotes – Senators Predication and Pick
It’s simply so much easier for me to see Ottawa winning this game by a comfortable than not, and I believe we have strong value backing the Sens to cover -1.5 with Friday’s number of +110 on FanDuel.
