Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians Home Run Picks Today (8/1)
The cheapest ticket to a big payout on any slate is a home run prop. Below are the bats we like in Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians, with the best price on each.
On the board for Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians: Rhys Hoskins, Jose Ramirez, Ketel Marte, Corbin Carroll, Chase DeLauter, David Fry are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
This is the full home run board for the game — the information, not a staff pick. We are not choosing your bet; the expert picks below are real plays you can tail, and our job is to get you the best number on whatever you back. "To hit a home run" is the over 0.5 home runs market; take the best available price on the OddsShopper home run odds screen, since the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another — real money on a play you already like.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rhys Hoskins (CLE) | +413 | NoVig | 19.5% | 31 |
| Jose Ramirez (CHW) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 33 |
| Ketel Marte (ARI) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 31 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | +534 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 15.8% | 31 |
| Chase DeLauter (CLE) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 30 |
| David Fry (CLE) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 26 |
| Angel Martinez (CLE) | +650 | Fanatics | 13.3% | 28 |
| Petey Halpin (CLE) | +700 | BetOnline | 12.5% | 2 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 1, 2026 · 01:35 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Progressive Field: park index 88.2 · wind 2 mph.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 48% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +506
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 44% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +519 · NoVig +506
- José Ramírez (CLE) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 47% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +488 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · ProphetX +480 · NoVig +488
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +608 · NoVig +641
- Rhys Hoskins (CLE) — baseline power edge. (model confidence B)
- books: best +400 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +387 · NoVig +400
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +953 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +794 · NoVig +953
- Angel Martínez (CLE) — bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence B)
- books: best +550 at Fanatics | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · NoVig +545
- David Fry (CLE) — this starter's mix is the awkward kind for him. (model confidence C)
- books: best +650 at Fanatics | exchanges: ProphetX +539 · NoVig +614
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes these plays:
- Under 8.5 Total Runs (-108) Bet now → Polymarket
- Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-158) Bet now → Novig
- Kohl Drake Over 3.5 Total Strikeouts (-115) Bet now → Novig
- Total Over 8.5 Total Runs (+108) Bet now → Novig
- …plus 1 more on their full Tails card.
- BiscoBets on Tails likes Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-157). Bet now
- Rebel Mickie on Tails likes Jose Ramirez Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-155). Bet now
More from these experts on Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians. BiscoBets, DFSnDonuts Picks, Rebel Mickie post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
FAQ
Who has the best home run odds for Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians today? Rhys Hoskins at +413 (NoVig) is the shortest price; the table above lists the best book for every play. What does “to hit a home run” mean? It's the over 0.5 home runs prop — the player hits at least one home run. The odds and best book vary by sportsbook, so compare before betting. Where can I shop Arizona Diamondbacks @ Cleveland Guardians home run prop odds? OddsShopper's live home run board compares every sportsbook's price in real time so you always take the best number.
Odds shown are the best available as of publication and move quickly. Shop live prices on OddsShopper. Bet 21+ where legal; play responsibly.
