Major league hitters are batting .147 against Jacob Misiorowski this season.
FOX has this game on national television Saturday evening, and that number is the reason it is worth a prop bettor's night. It is also the reason there is almost nothing left to win on the Milwaukee Brewers moneyline. When a 24-year-old right-hander carries a 1.76 ERA into Dodger Stadium, the market has already done the math. So the question for a bettor is not whether he is good. The question is which strikeout number you are handed before first pitch, and whether you should pay for it.
The Quick Answer
Take the over at 7.5 strikeouts if a book posts it, lean 8.5 only at plus money, and pass at 9.5. Misiorowski has cleared 7.5 in 18 of his 22 starts, but he has finished the sixth inning in only 14 of them, and the Dodgers strike out less often than 25 other teams in MLB. That combination is why the number you get matters more than the pitcher you are betting. The full start-by-start history, the road split that cuts against him, and why Milwaukee's -130 road price is not a bet are below.
A 40% Strikeout Rate Is The Outlier In This Game
Strikeout props start with two questions: how often does this arm miss bats, and how long will he be out there to do it? Misiorowski answers the first as loudly as any starter in baseball right now, and the second is where the honest doubt lives.
| 2026 Season | Jacob Misiorowski |
|---|---|
| Starts / Innings | 22 / 133.0 |
| Strikeouts | 204 |
| Strikeouts Per Nine | 13.80 |
| Share Of Batters Faced Struck Out | 40.6% |
| Whiff Rate On Swings | 38.3% |
| ERA / WHIP | 1.76 / 0.74 |
| Innings Per Start | 6.05 |
| Quality Starts | 14 |
The row that matters most is not the ERA. Look at 40.6%: he has struck out two of every five hitters who have stepped in against him, across 503 batters faced, which is not a hot month dressed up as a season. Batters have swung at him 1,021 times and missed 393 of those swings.
The innings row is the one that cuts the other way, and the average hides the spread. He has completed six innings in 14 of 22 starts, reached the seventh in only 7, and failed to get through the sixth eight times, including twice in his last five. His median start is exactly 6.0 innings. Depth is the constraint on this prop, not stuff.
That one nine-inning night came on June 12 against the Philadelphia Phillies: 15 strikeouts, one hit, 95 pitches, a complete game with a strikeout in 15 of the 27 outs he recorded.
Where His Strikeout Line Has Actually Been Posting
Knowing the pitcher is easy. Knowing his price is the part most people skip. Here is every posted strikeout total we captured on his last five starts, next to what he actually did.
| Date | Opponent | Posted line | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| July 7 | at St. Louis Cardinals | 7.5 | 11 K, 7.0 IP |
| July 20 | vs New York Mets | 8.5 | 6 K, 4.0 IP |
| July 26 | vs Colorado Rockies | 8.5 | 12 K, 5.0 IP |
| Aug. 2 | at Los Angeles Angels | 9.5 | 10 K, 7.0 IP |
| Aug. 9 | vs Minnesota Twins | 8.5 | 9 K, 6.0 IP |
Four of those five went over, and the one that did not is the instructive one. Against the Mets on July 20 he still struck out six, but he was pulled after 4.0 innings on 65 pitches. He did not lose the strikeout stuff that night. He lost the innings. Short hooks are the real risk on every one of his props, and that risk is highest when a lineup makes him grind for outs.
Zoom out to all 22 starts and the distribution is blunt:
- Over 6.5 Strikeouts: 20 of 22 starts (90.9%)
- Over 7.5 Strikeouts: 18 of 22 starts (81.8%)
- Over 8.5 Strikeouts: 13 of 22 starts (59.1%)
His line has settled at 8.5 in three of the last five starts. Saturday's number had not posted when this was written, so treat 8.5 as the base case and treat a 7.5 as the one to grab quickly if a book opens him there. Check where the number sits everywhere on the live MLB strikeout prop board before you take the first one you see, because the difference between 7.5 and 8.5 on this arm is most of the bet. If strikeout props are new to you, our guide to betting strikeout props covers how the market builds the number.
A Worked Example: What 7.5 Versus 8.5 Is Actually Worth
Those three hit rates are not trivia. They are the entire argument for line shopping this specific prop, because the single step from 7.5 to 8.5 drops his historical hit rate by nearly 23 percentage points.
Run it the way you would price it yourself. When the number posts, convert the book's price into an implied probability and set it next to his hit rate at that exact line. The only quantity that matters is the distance between those two figures, and it swings hard with half a strikeout.
At 7.5, he has landed 81.8% of the time. A book asking you to pay an implied probability in the low-to-mid 60s is charging you for roughly two-thirds of something that has come in better than four times in five, which is a real cushion, and it is the version of this bet I want. At 8.5, his history sits at 59.1%, so the cushion is almost gone before you start: any price that implies more than 59.1% is charging above what the record supports, and prices just under it leave you a few points of margin on a small sample. That is the reason I want plus money at 8.5 specifically, rather than merely a price better than 59.1%. The extra room is the haircut I am taking for the fact that 22 starts is not a true probability and the Dodgers are the wrong lineup to pay full freight against. At 9.5 there is nothing left to buy.
Once his prop posts, the OddsShopper board does the same conversion across every book at once and compares each price to the de-vigged fair number, so you are reading actual gaps instead of eyeballing them.
One honest caveat on the arithmetic: 22 starts is a real sample for a strikeout rate, but it is a small one for a hit rate against a specific line, and a raw hit rate is not a true probability. Treat those percentages as the shape of the bet, not a settled edge.
OddsShopper checks the same strikeout prop across 20+ sportsbooks and exchanges and tells you which book is paying the most, plus what the de-vigged fair price actually is. Try OddsShopper Pro free for 7 days and see exactly which props it flags as +EV before you pay a cent, then take 20% off with code MISO20.
The Dodgers Are One Of The Toughest Strikeout Matchups In Baseball
Here is the counterweight, and it is a real one. The Los Angeles Dodgers do not strike out. They have gone down on strikes in 20.5% of their plate appearances this season, fifth-lowest of all 30 MLB teams against a 22.1% league average, and it does not soften against right-handers: 20.7% across 3,228 plate appearances versus righties, on a .263 average and a .774 OPS. Only four lineups in baseball strike out less often. That matters twice over here, because at-bats that end in play instead of on strike three cost him outs he has been getting for free all season.
The one time he has seen them, though, it did not slow him down. On July 8, 2025, he threw six innings against Los Angeles and struck out 12. One start, thirteen months ago, counts as evidence rather than proof. Still, that is the specific evidence that a contact lineup does not automatically defuse a 38.3% whiff rate.
Split the difference honestly: the Dodgers are the reason to want 7.5 instead of 8.5, not the reason to skip the prop.
Milwaukee Is The Road Favorite, And That Is The Real Tell
Now back to the question that opened this. Milwaukee is 75-47, the best record in MLB. Los Angeles is 73-49, has gone 4-6 over its last 10, and is 36-24 inside Dodger Stadium. The visiting team is still the favorite, and the board is doing that because of who is on the mound.
| Market | Number | Fair price |
|---|---|---|
| Brewers Moneyline | -130 (NoVig) | -130 (55.7% true win probability) |
| Brewers Run Line -1.5 | +133 (NoVig) | +132 |
| Dodgers Run Line +1.5 | -135 (Hard Rock) | -132 |
| Total Runs | 7.5, Under -105 (Hard Rock) | -104 |
Prices as captured on the OddsShopper +EV board ahead of first pitch; markets move, so re-check the live number before betting.
Read that moneyline row again. The best takeable price and the de-vigged fair price are the same number, which is a market with nothing left in it, and exactly what "the pitcher is fully priced in" looks like on a screen. The 7.5 total says the same thing from a different angle, especially with Justin Wrobleski going for Los Angeles at a 3.44 ERA and 1.11 WHIP but only 7.03 strikeouts per nine, a starter who works to contact rather than through it. If you want to shop the game line anyway, the live MLB odds screen shows every book on it, and our Brewers vs Dodgers odds page carries the full +EV board for this matchup.
How I Am Playing It
The one I keep coming back to is the strikeout number, not the side. Milwaukee at -130 with a fair price of -130 is a bet with no edge in it, and the total is priced at its own fair number too. The prop is the only place on this card I still want to watch, because his line has swung between 7.5 and 9.5 across five starts while he kept striking out better than a batter per inning through all of them, 48 in 29 innings.
The road split belongs in this decision, and it cuts both ways. He has missed more bats at home, 14.55 strikeouts per nine in 13 starts at American Family Field against 12.77 in nine road starts, which comes out to 8.8 per road outing. That figure still clears 7.5 and lands right on top of 8.5, which is another reason not to pay a premium for the higher number. In his favor, his road starts have actually run longer, 6.19 innings per outing against 5.95 at home, and his road ERA and .135 average allowed are both a shade better than his home marks. Fewer strikeouts per inning, but more innings to get them in.
So: take the over at 7.5 if a book posts it, treat 8.5 as a lean that needs plus money to be worth it, and pass at 9.5 against a lineup that puts this much in play. The risk is not that he stops missing bats. The risk is a repeat of July 20, when he was lifted after 4.0 innings on only 65 pitches for reasons the box score does not explain. Short hooks happen to him for more reasons than pitch count, and the closest thing to a genuine grind was July 26, when a contact-heavy night ran him to 83 pitches in 5.0 innings. Size it like the innings are honestly in question, because against this lineup they are.
For the picks our experts are actually posting on Saturday's card, start with the free expert picks board, and the daily MLB strikeout props hub covers the rest of the day's arms.
FAQ
How many strikeouts does Jacob Misiorowski average per start? He has 204 strikeouts in 133 innings across 22 starts in 2026, which works out to 13.80 per nine innings and roughly 9.3 per start. He has thrown at least eight strikeouts in 18 of those 22 outings.
What has Misiorowski's strikeout prop line been set at? Across his last five starts, his number posted at 7.5 once, 8.5 three times and 9.5 once. The 8.5 is his most common line, so treat anything at 7.5 as a discount and anything at 9.5 as a stretch.
Are the Dodgers a good strikeout matchup? No. Los Angeles has struck out in 20.5% of its plate appearances this season, fifth-lowest in MLB and below the 22.1% league rate, and the number barely moves against right-handed pitching at 20.7%.
Where should I bet a strikeout prop? Wherever the number and the price are best, which is rarely the same book two nights running. Line shopping the same prop across 20+ books is the cheapest edge available in this market.
Ready to stop guessing which book has the better number? OddsShopper compares every strikeout prop across 20+ sportsbooks and exchanges, shows the fair price behind each one, and flags the ones that beat it. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, then take 20% off with code MISO20.
