A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres.
On the board for Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres: Hunter Goodman, Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Mickey Moniak, Jackson Merrill, Ty France are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hunter Goodman (COL) | +335 | NoVig | 23.0% | 34 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +456 | Kalshi | 18.0% | 34 |
| Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) | +460 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 17.9% | 34 |
| Mickey Moniak (COL) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 33 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +550 | Bet365 | 15.4% | 34 |
| Ty France (SD) | +600 | Bet365 | 14.3% | 34 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | +625 | Kalshi | 13.8% | 34 |
| Jake Cronenworth (SD) | +755 | Kalshi | 11.7% | 31 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Gubabets on Tails likes these plays:
- Cobi O'Connell on Tails likes Colorado Rockies Moneyline (+131). Bet now → DraftKings
- JmetalK on Tails likes Colorado Rockies Moneyline (+135). Bet now
- BGrebbs on Tails likes these plays:
- Nothin' But Dingers on Tails likes Mickey Moniak Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+500). Bet now → Bet365
- KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS on Tails likes 2-leg parlay on this game.
- PrizePick Champions on Tails (#7 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Ty France Over 5.5 Hitter Fantasy Score (-122). Bet now → PrizePicks
- Rebel Mickie on Tails (#6 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-145). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails (#8 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Michael Lorenzen Under 3.5 Total Strikeouts (-106). Bet now
- MVPRO on Tails likes San Diego Padres -1.5 Run Line (2.13). Bet now → Underdog
More from these experts on Colorado Rockies @ San Diego Padres. BGrebbs, Cobi O'Connell, FOTP, Gubabets, JmetalK, KONGLOMERATE SPORTS PICKS, MVPRO, PrizePick Champions , Rebel Mickie post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
