MLB Betting Picks Today: Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (7/21)
Here are Eric Lindquist's MLB betting picks today, built live and beginning to end with nothing fired in advance. A full board of MLB games was up Tuesday morning, and by the time Lindquist got through the first few, the Northeast had made the decision for him: severe weather across Philadelphia, Boston, and New York put three games in real jeopardy before first pitch. The best process of the day wasn't even his headline bet. It was how he handled a board that started falling apart before he'd played a dime, funneling his money into the games that still offered a real number instead of forcing action on games that didn't.
Drew Rasmussen — one of the featured players on today's board.
In Summary
- Headline Play: Drew Rasmussen (TB) over 4.5 strikeouts at +105, plus over 17.5 outs recorded at +105 (Rays at Blue Jays) — a quarter unit on each, the show's main stand.
- Lean: Minnesota Twins moneyline (~+130) at Cleveland, betting the bullpen gap rather than either offense.
- Also Played: Kevin Gausman (TOR) under 5.5 strikeouts on PrizePicks, a smaller card play in the same game as the Rasmussen bet.
- Weather Angle: Zack Wheeler (PHI) and the Dodgers-Phillies game were caught in the same Northeast rain risk that scratched most other pitcher-outs props off the board.
- On The Radar For Later: Matt Olson (ATL) platoon split against right-handed pitching, and the wind blowing out at Wrigley for the late Tigers-Cubs game.
Watch The Video
This recap is pulled straight from Lindquist's live show. Watch the full episode on YouTube for every game he walked, including the ones he passed on entirely.
The Anchor Play: Betting Both Sides Of Drew Rasmussen
Rasmussen's last start looks like a disaster on paper: two and a third innings, shelled, a 50% home-run-to-fly-ball rate and a .545 BABIP against him. Lindquist's read is that the outing was bad luck, not bad stuff. His xFIP in that start, the process number that strips out what the defense and batted-ball luck did to him, was still 2.71, his swinging-strike rate sat at 8.2%, and his spin numbers on the sinker and cutter were unchanged from a 2025 season where he ran a 3.48 expected ERA as one of the better arms in baseball. He barely throws a curveball, under 10% of his pitches, so the two pitches that actually define the outing are the fastball and the cutter, and neither showed any decline.
Both sides of the market line up at plus money because of it: over 4.5 strikeouts at +105 and over 17.5 outs recorded at +105, available across multiple books (BetMGM and FanDuel priced within a cent of each other). A quarter unit on each, correlated but each individually priced ahead of Lindquist's own projection, is what he called the main stand of the show. That's a smaller stake than a full-conviction single bet, sized to the fact that even a strong process bet can still miss.
The process, not the last result. A pitcher can carry elite underlying numbers and still get shelled in a single start. Sizing this one at a quarter unit per side, rather than a full-conviction play, is what it looks like to trust the process over a two-start sample.
Lindquist also played the other side of that same game on PrizePicks: Kevin Gausman (TOR) under 5.5 strikeouts. Smaller, pick'em-only stakes rather than a straight bet, but the same board and the same logic apply — take the number the market is offering, not the number that feels good.
Why The Northeast Washed Out Half The Board
The reason Rasmussen got the bulk of the airtime is that a chunk of the rest of the board disappeared before it started. Philadelphia, Boston, and New York were all sitting under an 81% chance of precipitation with flood watches in the forecast, which put the Dodgers-Phillies, the Yankees' home game, and the Orioles-Red Sox game all at real postponement risk. Pitcher-outs props on those games got pulled off the board mid-show; Zack Wheeler (PHI) total was one of the last still standing.
That's more than a scratch — it's a useful technique. Lindquist's approach in a spot like this is to correlate an under on a starter's outs recorded with the odds of an in-game delay: if the game starts on time but gets stopped a few innings in, the starter's workload gets capped no matter how well he's throwing. Separately, on a different Wheeler market, the OddsShopper board right now shows real value: the de-vigged fair price on Wheeler going under 4.5 total hits allowed is -103, and the best takeable price is +100 at BetMGM, a 1.5% edge before you even factor in the rain. If you're shopping that number, BetMGM's current offer is worth checking first.
The Twins-Guardians Lean Is About The Bullpen, Not The Bats
With the Northeast largely unplayable, Cleveland was one of the few games with good hitting weather: 71% humidity, no rain in the forecast, a park that plays up for left-handed power even though it's historically brutal for right-handed hitters. Kendry Rojas (MIN) has a tiny sample size (342 pitches) but strong early results, including zero home runs allowed, that Lindquist expects to regress given an 85% left-on-base rate that isn't sustainable and a fastball-heavy profile ZiPS and Steamer both project regressing. Parker Messick (CLE) is a different profile entirely: no velocity, fastball-heavy, and a legitimately good process arm with a 2.84 ERA backed by a 4.39 SIERA and a 27.8% put-away rate on a fastball that barely tops 94 mph.
Neither pitching matchup is where the value is. The lean is on Minnesota's moneyline at roughly +130, and it's a bet on Cleveland's bullpen more than anything Minnesota's lineup does.
- Guardians Bullpen: projected sub-3% hold rate once the game leaves the starters.
- The Read: own the Twins' side of a close game rather than either team's individual bats.
- Passed On: Brooks Lee (MIN) prop at +133 — Lindquist was skeptical of the underlying read, not just the price.
The Outlier Nobody Fired: Matt Olson Vs. Righties
The single biggest platoon split Lindquist found all show was in Atlanta. Walker Buehler (SD) has been good against left-handed hitters and bad against right-handers, which puts a spotlight on Atlanta's righty bats, headlined by Austin Riley (ATL), who's back in the cleanup spot for this game. Matt Olson (ATL) is the other name Lindquist kept coming back to: he called Olson's numbers against left-handed pitching outstanding, and against right-handed pitching "even more ridiculous" — the exact kind of outlier that makes a pitching matchup worth attacking regardless of which side is on the mound.
That's the case for an Olson home-run bet. What it isn't is a fired play. Lindquist walked a long-shot home-run price on Olson down toward what he considered fair value, called the gap "close," and ultimately passed rather than force a number that wasn't quite wide enough. He did the same with Michael Harris II (ATL) at +475, saying he'd need a better price before he'd take it. Liking a matchup and betting a matchup are two different decisions, and this was the clearest example of the day of the first without the second.
Selectivity is the skill. Same discipline as the quarter-unit sizing on Rasmussen: a strong read on a matchup still has to clear a price bar before it becomes a bet. Most games on a full MLB board simply don't clear it.
What's Still Cooking For Later: Sproat And The Wrigley Wind
Brandon Sproat (NYM) is what Lindquist called a true two-way strikeout pitcher: there's a real path to seven or eight strikeouts, and a real path to giving up eight earned runs, depending on how much he leans on his sinker versus everything else in the arsenal. The Mets' full-season strikeout rate against right-handed pitching sits around 22% (14th in MLB), but Lindquist flagged that their last-14-day number has actually been sliding, with more walks mixed in, largely a function of who's rotating back into that lineup post-All-Star break. That's a real-time wrinkle worth weighing against Sproat's own strikeout total.
The forward-looking piece of the show was Chicago. Wind is blowing out at Wrigley for the late Tigers-Cubs game, and Lindquist flagged it early as a number he expects the market to catch up on as the day goes: Framber Valdez (DET) gets a Cubs lineup that ranks bottom-10 in baseball against left-handed pitching (21.1% strikeout rate, a 118 wRC+ against southpaws), and real market data already backs up scoring going up early in that game. The de-vigged fair price on the Tigers-Cubs first-inning total going over 0.5 runs is +109, with the best takeable price at +122 (Bet365), a 6.2% edge. David Peterson (CHC) faces a Tigers lineup that's one of the most platoon-heavy in baseball, expected to run out just two left-handed bats, headlined by Riley Greene (DET), with the rest right-handed. That cuts against him: his strikeout rate against right-handed hitters is a modest 13.7%, with his swing-and-miss stuff skewed hard toward lefties instead, so the strikeout upside on his side of this game is thin no matter how the wind blows.
Where The Board Actually Shows Value Right Now
Running today's board through the OddsShopper de-vig engine turns up a pattern Lindquist was circling all show without a live number in front of him: on a rain-soaked, humidity-heavy Tuesday, most of the board's real value is sitting on hitters going under their total, not over it.
| Player / Market | Fair Odds | Best Takeable Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) Under 4.5 Total Hits Allowed | -103 | +100 (BetMGM) | +1.5% |
| Tigers @ Cubs 1St Inning Over 0.5 Runs | +109 | +122 (Bet365) | +6.2% |
| Masataka Yoshida (BOS) Under 0.5 Total Hits | +180 | +200 (Bet365) | +7.1% |
| Willson Contreras (STL) Under 0.5 Total Hits | +167 | +175 (Bet365) | +3.0% |
| Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) Under 1.5 Total Bases | -156 | -150 (Fanatics) | +1.6% |
| Shohei Ohtani (LAD) Under 0.5 Total Hits | +170 | +175 (BetMGM) | +1.9% |
The one worth sitting with is Yoshida. A +200 best price against a +180 fair number is the single largest edge on this list, on a Boston lineup that's also sitting in the same rain risk zone Lindquist flagged for the Orioles game. That's the same logic as the Wheeler bet: bad weather doesn't just threaten a postponement, it suppresses the offense in the games that do get played.
How To Find These Same Bets Yourself
The Rasmussen bet is the clean teaching example here. At +105, the strikeout over implies roughly a 48.8% chance of hitting. Lindquist's argument, an elite arm that got unlucky rather than exposed, projects that number well above 48.8%, which is what makes it worth a bet at all. Now look at what shopping the line does: if one book has the same market at -120 instead, that price implies about 54.5%, meaning you'd need almost six more percentage points of confidence just to break even on the identical bet. Betting the +105 side instead of the -120 side is the entire edge, and it costs nothing extra to find it.
That's the exact grunt work the OddsShopper MLB odds screen automates: every book's number on the same market, side by side, so the plus-money price doesn't get missed. If you're carrying bonus credit into any of these, run it through the free bet converter first to see what it's actually worth at true odds.
New to OddsShopper? Code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro, on top of a 7-day free trial. Start your free trial
A reality check before you tail any of this: these are Lindquist's pre-game reads on one Tuesday card, not a promise of results, and weather-driven markets in particular can move fast on new radar updates. Confirm the live price and check the forecast before you bet anything.
Watch The Full Show
Lindquist walks every game on the board, including the ones he skipped, in the full episode: MLB Lindy's Leans, Likes, and Locks Live! (7/21) on the OddsShopper YouTube channel. Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks (MLB) airs most weekday mornings with fresh MLB picks today for that day's board, plus MLB prop bets across the board that don't make the headline recap. He also runs an MLB Research Show most afternoons, and posts his card daily on Tails: follow Lindy on Tails.
FAQ
Who is Lindy? Eric Lindquist is an MLB betting analyst who hosts "Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks" on the OddsShopper YouTube channel, along with a separate MLB Research Show.
What was the headline MLB bet for July 21? Drew Rasmussen (TB) over 4.5 strikeouts and over 17.5 outs recorded, both at +105, against the Blue Jays. Lindquist called it the main stand of the show, sized at a quarter unit on each side.
Why didn't he bet the Matt Olson home run prop? Price. He liked Olson's platoon split against right-handed pitching, but the long-shot number never got wide enough for him to pull the trigger. Liking a matchup isn't the same as betting it.
How should I treat these picks? As pre-game leans and locks, not certainties. Weather in particular can move a line fast, so confirm the current price before betting anything above.
How do I find these same MLB betting picks and props myself? Shop every book on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, which lines up the same market across every sportsbook so the best price never gets missed.
Find The Same MLB Value Before The Price Moves
Lindquist's edge on a day like this isn't a forecast. It's refusing to force a number that isn't there and pouncing on the ones that are, like both sides of the Rasmussen market lining up at plus money. OddsShopper does that comparison automatically across every book on every MLB market. Try it free for 7 days, then code BABYLINDY50 takes 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro. Start your free trial
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