Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Best Bets For Wednesday 7/22
A power outage blew up Eric Lindquist's (Lindy) Tuesday setup, forced him to relocate his family mid-stream, and still didn't stop Tuesday's card from going green across both pick'em sides and the home run slate. Wednesday is the return to normal, and normal means 17 games (two doubleheaders included) that he flies through fast. That pace is the story of this card: most of it stays in the lean bucket, angles he's talked through but hasn't priced enough to fire, while a handful of numbers were clean enough to bet the moment they hit the board. Three of those are moneylines, the most he's fired on a single card in a while, and the last one is worth sitting with once we get there.
One vocabulary note, because it changes how you tail this: a lean is a game he likes but hasn't bet, an official play is one he fired, and the sizing (quarter unit, 0.35 units, standard) tells you the conviction. Don't treat a lean as a bet that was made.
Brice Turang — one of the featured players on today's slate.
In Summary
- Three Fired Moneylines, the most on one card in a while: San Francisco Giants (his heaviest stake of the day) over the Royals, Cincinnati Reds (+136, 0.35 units) over the Mariners, and Toronto Blue Jays over the Rays.
- Two Home Run Props Fired: Brice Turang (MIL) at a plus-money price and Brayan Rocchio (CLE) at a longer opening plus-money number on DraftKings and BetMGM, quarter unit on Rocchio (Turang's size wasn't specified).
- A Total And A Strikeout Number: Dodgers–Phillies Over 9.5 (-105, 0.3 units) and Tyler Alexander (TEX) Over 3.5 strikeouts (+115, quarter unit).
- Live Board Value Tonight (OddsShopper's own de-vigged numbers, not Lindy's plays): the board's best edge of the night is Carter Jensen (KC) Under 0.5 hits at +175 (Bet365), a roughly 6.6% edge, in the same Royals lineup Lindy is betting against.
- Leans Without A Fired Bet span both doubleheaders (Pittsburgh, Baltimore), plus Oakland, Houston, Detroit, a Gabriel Hughes (COL) over-runs lean, a Reid Detmers (LAA) strikeout lean, and a standing Michael King (SD) strikeout-under approach he's waiting on props to price.
Watch The Video
Lindy ran this one live and fast, 17 games deep with the odds screen open the whole way. Watch it in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Two Doubleheaders, Zero Fired Bets: Why Lindy Stayed Away
Pittsburgh and New York split a doubleheader at Yankee Stadium, and Baltimore and Boston did the same at Fenway, and Lindy talked through both without putting money on either. The reasoning was the same in both parks: too much bullpen uncertainty to trust a moneyline yet. In the Pirates–Yankees opener (Mitch Keller vs. Gerrit Cole), he flagged Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) to homer at a big plus-money price but didn't deploy it, uncertain Goldschmidt even makes that lineup. Game two (Bubba Chandler vs. Max Fried) is where the real lean lives: Pittsburgh's moneyline was sitting around +142 with an unusually high 30-cent hold on DraftKings, a sign the book is combating its own bullpen uncertainty by pricing in extra vig rather than picking a side. He likes the Pirates there if the number holds, but it's a lean, not a bet.
Baltimore–Boston is the same shape. Game one (Dean Kremer vs. Jake Bennett) is an angle, not a play: Kremer leads the entire slate in home runs allowed per nine, and Fenway's hitting weather is good again for a second straight day, so there's home run interest on the Boston side even though Jarren Duran (BOS) batting seventh works against it. Game two is the one he's actually circling: Kyle Bradish (BAL) is a confirmed starter pitching noticeably better of late (3.61 RA9), while Boston's own starter was still unconfirmed at show time. His lean is that if that spot turns into a bullpen game, Baltimore's Bradish-anchored side at plus money is worth chasing once the price is final.
Mets–Brewers: The First Fired Play, A Home Run Number He Wouldn't Pass Up
Brice Turang (MIL) is the play Lindy opens the fired side of the card with. Milwaukee's hitting weather is good for a second consecutive day (71 degrees, wind blowing out 8 mph to right field), and Turang sits high in a Brewers lineup facing Christian Scott (NYM), a righty with real strikeout stuff against lefties that's been getting hit hardest by the hitters who put the ball in play instead of chasing. That's exactly Turang's profile: he strikes out the least of anyone Lindy considered in this spot, which means more looks at a pitcher who's vulnerable when contact happens. His play: Turang to homer at a plus-money price, betting that the low strikeout rate gets him more swings than the market is pricing for.
Real board value in the same game: OddsShopper's board has Logan Henderson (MIL) Under 5.5 strikeouts at -102 (DraftKings), a de-vigged fair price of -106 for roughly a 1.9% edge, and Christian Scott (NYM) Under 15.5 pitching outs at -165 (HardRock), fair -168, about a 0.7% edge. Neither conflicts with the Turang call: both are two-way pitchers in a hitter's environment, which is the same case for taking the under on their workload and the over on the power.
Giants–Royals: The Heaviest Play On The Card
This is the one Lindy sized biggest. San Francisco Giants moneyline over the Royals, behind Landen Roupp, is "the heaviest of the three" moneylines he fired Wednesday, in his own words. Seth Lugo (KC) is the reason: Lindy's read is that Lugo is an inferior arm at this price, and the number should be wider than what's on the board. The supporting fact: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) wasn't expected to play for a second straight game, which thins out the exact lineup Lugo needs to survive a lesser stuff profile.
A Worked Example: How Lindy Sizes A "Too Wide" Price
Here's the actual process, because "the number's too wide" is doing a lot of work in that call. Lindy isn't pricing Lugo off ERA. He's pricing off what the underlying stuff says he deserves, then comparing that number to what the market is offering. When a favorite is missing its best everyday bat (Witt) and the opposing pitcher's process grades out worse than his results, the gap between "what should this cost" and "what does this cost" is the entire edge. That's also why he called this his heaviest stake of the day and not just another lean: it's not one signal, it's two, a pitcher mispriced on his own, and a lineup that just got weaker on the other side.
Real board value in the same game (not Lindy's play, OddsShopper's own numbers): this is where the board found its best number of the entire slate. Carter Jensen (KC) Under 0.5 hits at +175 (Bet365) ✅, fair price +158, a 6.6% edge. Also in this lineup: Salvador Perez (KC) Under 0.5 hits at +175 (Bet365), fair +166, a 3.4% edge; Seth Lugo (KC) Under 17.5 pitching outs at +107 (DraftKings), fair +101, a 3.0% edge; Michael Massey (KC) Under 0.5 hits at +160 (Bet365), fair +154, a 2.4% edge; Bryce Eldridge (SF) Under 0.5 hits at +190 (Bet365), fair +185, a 1.8% edge; and two on Vinnie Pasquantino (KC): Under 1.5 total bases at -168 (DraftKings), fair -176, a 1.7% edge, and Under 0.5 hits at +167 (DraftKings), fair +164, a 1.1% edge, plus Lane Thomas (KC) Under 1.5 total bases at -169 (DraftKings), fair -174, a 1.1% edge. None of these conflict with backing the Giants moneyline; they're a way to touch the same thin Royals lineup that's doing the heavy lifting in Lindy's own case.
Reds–Mariners: The Second Moneyline, A Skill-Independent Case
Brady Singer (CIN) is the pitcher Lindy has broken down repeatedly on both his DFS and betting shows, and Wednesday is where he finally had the number to back it. Against Emerson Hancock (SEA), Cincinnati's moneyline opened at +136, which Lindy called too wide given Singer's actual skill-independent numbers: a SIERA under 3.5 across his last four starts, sub-3 in two of those, an expected batting average against under .160 that's tracking almost exactly with his actual .157 mark over that stretch. Seattle isn't without its own concerns either: JP Crawford (SEA) is dinged up, with Cole Young (SEA) sliding into the leadoff spot. His play: Cincinnati moneyline at +136, 0.35 units, sized up slightly from his standard quarter-unit lean play because the process numbers are that clean.
Real board value in the same game: Emerson Hancock (SEA) Under 5.5 strikeouts at -104 (FanDuel), fair -105, roughly a 0.5% edge, a small number, but it's directionally the same read as Lindy's play: Cincinnati's lineup grinding at-bats out against a pitcher who isn't missing enough bats to justify a heavier line either way.
Dodgers–Phillies: A No-Brainer Total, Sized Down On Purpose
Eric Lauer (LAD) against Aaron Nola (PHI) carries a 9.5 total that Lindy called a "brain dead easy click" on the over: low barometric pressure, high humidity in Philadelphia, and Nola's actual home-road splits showing he struggles more at Citizens Bank Park specifically because it plays so well for left-handed power. The Dodgers have plenty of that, even with Kyle Tucker (LAD) having a quieter year than expected by his own standards. His play: Over 9.5, -105, 0.3 units, a smaller stake than the moneylines, which fits how he treats a number he's confident in but that isn't offering the same kind of price inefficiency as a plus-money mispriced favorite.
Twins–Guardians: The Second Home Run Prop
Bailey Ober (MIN) has allowed just a .100 expected ISO across his last three starts, a number Lindy flatly said isn't real: "that is not Bailey Ober." His strikeout stuff has also gone up while he leans further into off-speed, the exact kind of profile that tends to snap back hard against a lineup that hunts mistakes. Facing him: Brayan Rocchio (CLE), not a power-first bat (five home runs against right-handed pitching all year) but a better hitter against lefties than righties, catching Ober in exactly that split. His play: Rocchio to homer, opened at a big plus-money number on DraftKings and BetMGM, quarter unit, taken on the DraftKings side. Shop that number: OddsShopper's Home Runs board is where a plus-money prop like this moves hardest book to book.
Real board value in the same game: Slade Cecconi (CLE) Under 3.5 strikeouts at +135 (DraftKings), fair +130, a 2.2% edge. It's a clean, separate way to touch the same game without needing the Rocchio power case to hit on any particular pitch.
Rays–Blue Jays: The Third Moneyline
This was the last line of the night to firm up. Lindy said he waited on it until roughly 1 a.m. Eastern. Griffin Jax (TB) and Braydon Fisher (TOR) is the matchup, and the board opened close to a coinflip at standard vig, which Lindy doesn't buy given how much better Fisher has graded across the board this season, particularly at limiting hard contact and barrels. Tampa Bay is a legitimately good baseball team that's built to grind out at-bats and avoid strikeouts, so this isn't a blowout case. It's a value case. His play: Toronto Blue Jays moneyline, closing the loop on the three-moneyline card he flagged from the very start of the show.
White Sox–Rangers: The Strikeout Number He Called The Dustiest Play Of The Card
Tyler Alexander (TEX) facing the White Sox lineup, at Globe Life Field, is what Lindy called his "dustiest play of the entire card," meaning he'd been passing on similar numbers everywhere else, and this was the one shop where the price finally made sense. Chicago runs real swing-and-miss risk in the middle of its order, including Colson Montgomery (CWS), hitters who chase power at the cost of contact against exactly the profile Alexander brings. His play: Alexander Over 3.5 strikeouts at +115, a quarter unit, small on purpose, since he'd been shorting the same number elsewhere on the board all night before this price appeared.
Padres–Braves: A Standing Approach, Not Yet A Play
Michael King (SD) has been Lindy's most-repeated under-strikeouts angle of the season, and the case doesn't change against Martín Pérez (ATL): King has openly said he's comfortable pitching to contact and eating innings for a Padres team that's actively trying to win now, and Atlanta's lineup is loaded with left-handed bats that don't strike out much. The prop line wasn't posted yet by the time the show wrapped, so this stayed an approach rather than a fired number. King is "live to open" at four and a half strikeouts most nights, and Lindy's plan is to take the under again once the actual line is on the board.
The Rest Of The Slate: Leans He's Not Ready To Fire
A handful of games got real analysis but no bet. Cade Cavalli (WSH) against Gabriel Hughes (COL) at Coors Field carries a 3.5 earned-runs number Lindy called absurdly low for a soft-tossing righty facing a Washington lineup that's found ways to lose games all season, an over lean, not a play. Gage Jump (ATH) against Merrill Kelly (AZ) produced an Oakland moneyline lean, built more on Arizona's own lineup uncertainty (unclear if Gabriel Moreno (AZ) catches every day against a lefty) than conviction in Jump himself, who's coming off three straight shortened outings. Reid Detmers (LAA) was a strikeout lean against St. Louis's Hunter Dobbins: six-plus strikeouts, a number Lindy wants but won't force into a lineup that simply doesn't chase much, pending confirmation on a possible Cardinals rest day. Keider Montero (DET) against Colin Rea (CHC) at Wrigley Field, with the wind blowing in hard, produced a Detroit moneyline lean built purely on price as the underdog, not on any edge in Montero's own stuff. And Sandy Alcantara (MIA) against Peter Lambert (HOU) at Daikin Park, a park playing up for power from both sides of the plate this season, produced a Houston moneyline lean he called clean but stayed a lean at the price offered.
Wednesday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco Giants | Moneyline (Over KC) | Heaviest stake of the day |
| Cincinnati Reds | Moneyline (+136, Over SEA) | 0.35 units |
| Toronto Blue Jays | Moneyline (Over TB) | Size not specified |
| Brice Turang (MIL) | To Hit A Home Run (Plus-Money) | Size not specified |
| Brayan Rocchio (CLE) | To Hit A Home Run (Opened Big Plus-Money) | Quarter unit |
| Dodgers–Phillies | Over 9.5 (-105) | 0.3 units |
| Tyler Alexander (TEX) | Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+115) | Quarter unit |
Three moneylines, two home run props, a total and a strikeout number: the most spread-out card Lindy's fired in a while. Run any multi-leg version through the OddsShopper Parlay Builder so every leg still has to clear on its own, and shop the Strikeouts and Hits boards before you size anything above.
Wednesday's Live Board Value (OddsShopper's Own Numbers, Not Lindy's Plays)
| Player | Team | Market | Best Price | Fair Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carter Jensen | KC | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 (Bet365) | +158 | ~6.6% |
| Salvador Perez | KC | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 (Bet365) | +166 | ~3.4% |
| Seth Lugo | KC | Under 17.5 Pitching Outs | +107 (DraftKings) | +101 | ~3.0% |
| Michael Massey | KC | Under 0.5 Hits | +160 (Bet365) | +154 | ~2.4% |
| Slade Cecconi | CLE | Under 3.5 Strikeouts | +135 (DraftKings) | +130 | ~2.2% |
| Logan Henderson | MIL | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -102 (DraftKings) | -106 | ~1.9% |
| Bryce Eldridge | SF | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | +185 | ~1.8% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -168 (DraftKings) | -176 | ~1.7% |
| Vinnie Pasquantino | KC | Under 0.5 Hits | +167 (DraftKings) | +164 | ~1.1% |
| Lane Thomas | KC | Under 1.5 Total Bases | -169 (DraftKings) | -174 | ~1.1% |
| Christian Scott | NYM | Under 15.5 Pitching Outs | -165 (HardRock) | -168 | ~0.7% |
| Emerson Hancock | SEA | Under 5.5 Strikeouts | -104 (FanDuel) | -105 | ~0.5% |
The Carter Jensen number is the one worth sitting with. It's the single best de-vigged edge on the board tonight, and it's sitting inside the exact Royals lineup Lindy is separately betting against on the moneyline: two different, non-contradictory ways to touch one game.
Leans Without A Fired Bet
- Pittsburgh Pirates Moneyline (Game Two): a heavily-hold Yankees–Pirates line around +142, waiting on bullpen clarity from both sides.
- Baltimore Orioles Moneyline (Game Two): contingent on the Red Sox's second-game starter, still unconfirmed at show time.
- Gabriel Hughes (COL) Over 3.5 Earned Runs: a soft-tossing righty at Coors against a Washington lineup finding ways to lose.
- Oakland Athletics Moneyline: leans on Arizona's own catcher/lineup uncertainty more than conviction in Gage Jump.
- Reid Detmers (LAA) Over 6.5 Strikeouts: real stuff, but a Cardinals lineup that doesn't chase, pending a possible rest day.
- Detroit Tigers Moneyline: an underdog price lean against the Cubs at a windy Wrigley Field, not built on any specific edge in Keider Montero's stuff.
- Houston Astros Moneyline: clean case at Daikin Park, but stayed a lean at the price offered.
- Michael King (SD) Under Strikeouts: a repeated approach, waiting on the props to post before it becomes a play.
FAQ
What is Lindy's Leans, Likes and Locks? It's Eric Lindquist's live daily MLB betting show on the OddsShopper channel, where he builds his card game by game, distinguishing bets he's actually fired from games he merely likes.
What's Lindy's biggest play on Wednesday's card? The San Francisco Giants moneyline over the Royals, in his own words, "the heaviest of the three" moneylines he fired, built on Seth Lugo being mispriced and Bobby Witt Jr. missing a second straight game.
Are the home run props on Brice Turang and Brayan Rocchio official plays? Yes, both fired. Turang at a plus-money price against a Mets righty with two-way strikeout stuff, and Rocchio at a bigger opening plus-money number on DraftKings and BetMGM against a Twins starter whose suppressed power numbers Lindy doesn't believe will hold.
Why didn't Lindy bet either doubleheader? Both Pittsburgh–Yankees and Baltimore–Boston carried real bullpen and starter uncertainty heading into their second games. He talked through the angles (a Pirates lean, an Orioles lean contingent on a scratch) but wanted more clarity before firing either.
Get These Numbers Before They Move
Home run and strikeout props swing hard from book to book, and Wednesday's board already shows real value inside the exact lineup Lindy is betting against: the Jensen, Perez and Massey numbers above all clear a real edge right now. Shop them on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, and if you're carrying a bonus bet from any of tonight's books, run it through the OddsShopper free bet converter before you burn it on a plain favorite.
Get 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro with code BABYLINDY50 → (OddsShopper Pro also carries a 7-day free trial.) That's the same odds screen Lindy uses to shop DraftKings, BetMGM and Caesars against each other in real time.
