Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Best Bets For Thursday 7/23
Eric Lindquist (Lindy) recorded Thursday's card twice, the first pass entirely on mute, and the redo shows in the pace: a five-game MLB board broken down start to finish in about ten minutes. That speed matters here, because it's the opposite of a "throw darts and hope" session. Only three of the five games produced an actual bet. The rest got real analysis and a hard pass, including one prop he explicitly wouldn't touch at the number posted. The one game he keeps circling back to, the one he calls his most interesting angle of the day, is the Tampa Bay Rays at the Toronto Blue Jays, and it's the game this breakdown spends the most room on, because the case needs it.
One vocabulary note, because it changes how you read what follows: a lean is a game or number he likes but hasn't bet, an official play is one he's fired, and the unit size (a half unit, 0.55 units, a specific stake) tells you how much conviction is actually behind it. Nothing below gets promoted from a lean to a play unless he said he bet it.
Shane Bieber — one of the featured players on today's slate.
In Summary
- Three Fired Plays on a five-game card: Shane Bieber (TOR) Under 16.5 pitching outs, Corbin Carroll (ARI) Over 1.5 total bases (-110, DraftKings), and the Detroit Tigers run line over the Royals.
- One Prop He Explicitly Passed On: Chris Sale's strikeout number (Over 6.5, priced at -231) against the Padres, too expensive given how the Padres' own lineup limits strikeouts against lefties.
- Two Leans, No Bet: the Cleveland Guardians moneyline (-130) over the Twins, and the Padres–Braves total (Under 8.5, -115), his self-described least favorite game of the five.
- Home Run Interest Teased For The Card, Not Fired Here: three Tampa Bay Rays hitters at longshot plus-money prices, Victor Mesa Jr., Cedric Mullins and Jonathan Aranda, pending Thursday's confirmed Blue Jays lineup.
- Live Board Value Tonight (OddsShopper's own de-vigged numbers, not Lindy's plays): the board's best edge is Chase DeLauter (CLE) Under 0.5 hits at +190 (Bet365), roughly a 5.5% edge, in the same Twins–Guardians game he's leaning Cleveland in.
Watch The Video
Lindy flew through all five games in one fast, mute-free take. Watch the full breakdown in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Padres–Braves: The Game He Wanted No Part Of
Griffin Canning (SD) against Chris Sale (ATL) opens the card, and he calls it flatly his least favorite matchup of the five. The pitching-weather setup actually favors a low-scoring game, but Canning's problem is specific: he gives up left-handed power, and the Braves' lineup is built on exactly that. On the other side, Sale looked completely dialed in against a Padres lineup that strikes out less against lefties than righties, a real split working against betting his strikeout total. The number reflected it: Sale's strikeouts, priced at Over 6.5, sat at -231. The read: too much number to pay for a pitcher facing a contact-oriented lineup. The verdict: pass. The one number he'll take a stance on without firing money is the Padres–Braves total, Under 8.5 at -115, a lean, not a play, given how disturbing he found both sides of this matchup.
Twins–Guardians: A Bullpen Lean, Not A Bat Lean
Taj Bradley (MIN) and Gavin Williams (CLE) both miss bats, but both share the same hole: neither suppresses left-handed power. Williams gives up a touch more right-handed power than Bradley does, which is part of why José Ramírez (CLE), back for the Guardians today, and the rest of Cleveland's righty bats look playable here. The bigger factor is that Cleveland's bullpen simply looks better than Minnesota's behind two similar starters. The lean: Cleveland Guardians moneyline at -130, one he's "pretty confident" is correct, but not a fired play. He's already faced this exact Twins lineup once this year and doesn't love betting a pitcher on a second look with limited data either way.
Rays–Blue Jays: The Game He's Building Around
This is the one. Rogers Centre sits at 71 degrees at first pitch, 55% humidity, wind blowing out, roof open. He calls it as good a home run environment as this board offers, and it's the matchup he flagged as having by far his most interest of the day. Ian Seymour (TB) is the guy he wants to see the actual Blue Jays lineup against before committing further: Seymour's sinker misses a ton of left-handed bats (a 29.7% strikeout rate against lefties), but that same sinker has been hit hard when left-handed hitters do connect, a .496 wOBA and an expected ISO he calls "ridiculously bad" against exactly the hand that Toronto's best hitters bat from. Daulton Varsho (TOR), Nathan Lukes (TOR) and Yohendrick Piñango (TOR) are the three he's most interested in on that side, but he holds off naming a specific number until the lineup posts.
Shane Bieber (TOR) is where he actually has a number. Bieber looked sharper in his last outing, but the underlying trend across last year and this one is a growing left-handed power problem: a .250 expected ISO and a .271 actual ISO against lefties, with a strikeout rate against them (19.3%) well below his rate against righties (15.7%). Tampa Bay's own lineup rarely strikes out and works deep counts, which stacks against a big strikeout total but favors grinding him out of the game early. The fired play: Shane Bieber Under 16.5 pitching outs, just over half a unit to win 50, sized up slightly from his standard play because, in his words, he has "a little bit more invested in this one" than a typical number play.
A Worked Example: Why The Outs Number, Not The Strikeout Number
The distinction matters. He isn't betting that Bieber pitches badly. He's betting that Tampa Bay's patient, low-strikeout approach gets him out of the game earlier than the market expects, regardless of how many men he strikes out along the way. Sixteen and a half outs is 5.5 innings; a lineup that works deep counts and doesn't chase pitches out of the zone is the exact profile that shortens a start without needing a single loud hit. That's also why the same lineup that makes him lean away from a Bieber strikeout total is the reason he likes the under on his outs.
Real board value in the same game (OddsShopper's own numbers, not the play above): Shane Bieber (TOR) Under 4.5 strikeouts is priced at -148 (FanDuel), a de-vigged fair price of -152, for roughly a 1.1% edge, a smaller but directionally identical read on the same patient Rays lineup. Ian Seymour (TB) shows two separate small edges in the same game: Under 4.5 strikeouts at +108 (FanDuel), fair +106 for about a 1.0% edge, and Under 4.5 hits allowed at -110 (Bet365), fair -111, for roughly a 0.4% edge.
As for the home run angle he's saving for later: Victor Mesa Jr. (TB), Cedric Mullins (TB) and Jonathan Aranda (TB), all at longshot plus-money prices, are the three names he says he's most drawn to, all against Bieber's lefty-power split. He wants at least one or two of them locked into Thursday's confirmed lineup before turning any of it into a fired bet. That's the forward promise, not the play, on this game.
Diamondbacks–Cardinals: One Pass, One Fired Bet
Brandon Pfaadt (ARI) against Michael McGreevy (STL) got a long look for an under-strikeouts angle, but he talked himself out of it: the Cardinals are closer to league-average against right-handed pitching in strikeout avoidance, even though they're excellent against lefties specifically. The verdict: pass on the Pfaadt strikeout under. McGreevy is the more interesting arm regardless, a 2.92 ERA masking real left-handed power allowed, metrics he calls "wild" for how far they diverge from the run-prevention number.
That's where Corbin Carroll (ARI) comes in. Busch Stadium isn't his favorite home run park, and the wind was only blowing in at 5.8 mph, but it's still a spacious enough yard for Carroll to do damage, and the number was too good to pass up. His number: Corbin Carroll Over 1.5 total bases at -110 (DraftKings), 0.55 units. In his own words, that price should have been "-120 to -125 instantly" given McGreevy's actual contact-management numbers. Call it close to a 10% edge by his own math, his biggest stated edge of the card.
Royals–Tigers: Revenge, Served On The Run Line
Before getting to Thursday's last game, he circled back to Wednesday's gut-punch: the San Francisco Giants had a three-run lead in the seventh, didn't turn to their warmed-up left-handed reliever, and watched Landon Ruff give up a two-run jack to Salvador Perez instead. His Giants number closed from -116 to -140/-145 across the board (-144 at DraftKings) by the time it settled, real closing-line movement against him on a bullpen decision he had no way to see coming.
That frustration is exactly why Thursday's last game gets the "revenge" framing. Randy Dobnak (KC) is on a three-start heater with a shiny 1.93 ERA that he says is pure luck: an ugly 5.65 SIERA, an 11.3% strikeout rate against a 12.9% walk rate, a pitcher walking more hitters than he strikes out, which is never a sustainable formula. Troy Melton (DET) gets the ball for Detroit at home, against a Royals lineup he expects to get "schlacked." He said flatly he'd happily play Detroit's actual moneyline at -198 straight up. Instead, he opted for the run line for a plus-money number on the same side, trading a little more risk for a better payout. The play he fired: Detroit Tigers -1.5 run line, a half unit, a deliberate stake on the same side as that -198 line, because, as he put it, "I will firmly plant that flag there."
Thursday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| Shane Bieber (TOR) | Under 16.5 Pitching Outs | Just over half a unit, to win 50 |
| Corbin Carroll (ARI) | Over 1.5 Total Bases (-110, DraftKings) | 0.55 units |
| Detroit Tigers | Run Line -1.5 (Over KC) | Half unit |
Three plays, three different market types: a pitcher's workload number, a total-bases prop, and a run line instead of a straight moneyline. That spread is itself a signal. None of Thursday's favorites was mispriced enough on the moneyline alone to build a moneyline-heavy card the way some of his other cards have.
Thursday's Live Board Value (OddsShopper's Own Numbers, Not Lindy's Plays)
| Player | Team | Market | Best Price | Fair Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase DeLauter | CLE | Under 0.5 Hits | +190 (Bet365) | +175 | ~5.5% |
| Alejandro Kirk | TOR | Under 0.5 Hits | +165 (Fanatics) | +154 | ~4.3% |
| Cedric Mullins | TB | Under 0.5 Hits | +155 (Fanatics) | +148 | ~2.8% |
| Kazuma Okamoto | TOR | Under 0.5 Hits | +150 (Bet365) | +145 | ~2.0% |
| Byron Buxton | MIN | Under 0.5 Hits | +165 (Bet365) | +160 | ~1.9% |
| Shane Bieber | TOR | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | -148 (FanDuel) | -152 | ~1.1% |
| Ian Seymour | TB | Under 4.5 Strikeouts | +108 (FanDuel) | +106 | ~1.0% |
| Brooks Lee | MIN | Under 0.5 Hits | +135 (Bet365) | +134 | ~0.4% |
| Ian Seymour | TB | Under 4.5 Hits Allowed | -110 (Bet365) | -111 | ~0.4% |
The pattern worth sitting with: almost every real edge on the board tonight is an "under 0.5 hits" number, and it clusters in the exact two games already flagged above for contact-suppressing pitching, Twins–Guardians and Rays–Blue Jays. Chase DeLauter going hitless at +190 is the single best number on the board, in the same Cleveland game where the moneyline lean already backs the Guardians side. The board isn't as convinced everywhere, either: Chris Sale's own workload number (Under 18.5 outs, -154 at DraftKings against a -153 fair price) and Yandy Díaz (TB) hits number (Under 1.5, -200 against a -198 fair price) both show no real edge at the price offered, the board agreeing with the decision to stay off the Sale game entirely.
Leans Without A Fired Bet
- Cleveland Guardians Moneyline (-130): bullpen-quality lean over the Twins, not a bat-driven call.
- Padres–Braves Total, Under 8.5 (-115): his least favorite matchup of the five, a lean only.
- Ian Seymour's Lefty-Power Matchup: real concern, pending Thursday's confirmed Blue Jays lineup before it becomes a number.
- Three Rays Home Run Longshots: Victor Mesa Jr., Cedric Mullins and Jonathan Aranda, all at plus-money prices, teased for the card, not yet fired.
FAQ
What is Lindy's Leans, Likes and Locks? It's Eric Lindquist's daily MLB betting breakdown on the OddsShopper channel, where he separates games he's actually bet from ones he merely likes, and sizes each fired play by conviction.
What's Lindy's biggest play on Thursday's card? Corbin Carroll's total bases number, Over 1.5 at -110 on DraftKings. His own math puts the real price closer to -120/-125, close to a 10% edge, his biggest stated edge of the day.
Why didn't Lindy bet the Chris Sale strikeout prop? The number was too rich at -231 given how well the Padres' own lineup avoids strikeouts against left-handed pitching, a pass, not a lean.
Is the Tigers run line the same as betting the moneyline? Not quite. Detroit's straight moneyline sat at -198, a price he said he'd happily lay. He went to the run line (-1.5) instead for a plus-money number on the same side against Kansas City, trading a bit more risk for a better payout rather than passing on the game.
Get These Numbers Before They Move
Home run and strikeout props move fast book to book, and tonight's board already shows real value sitting inside the exact two games this card is built around. The DeLauter, Kirk and Mullins numbers above all clear a real edge right now. Shop them on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, price the outs number and the total-bases play against every book before you size anything above, and if you're sitting on a bonus bet from DraftKings or anywhere else, run it through the OddsShopper free bet converter before burning it on a plain favorite.
Get 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro with code BABYLINDY50 → That's the same odds screen Lindy uses to shop DraftKings, FanDuel, Bet365 and Fanatics against each other in real time.
