Lindy's MLB Picks Today: Best Bets For Monday 7/27
Eric Lindquist (Lindy) came into Monday's "Leans, Likes and Locks" off a green weekend and called this 12-game slate a fun one, but the shape of his card tells you what kind of day he thinks it is: pitching-forward, where the edge lives in isolating starters rather than chasing offense. That's why so much of the fired side is strikeout props, a first-five run line and a total, not a stack of moneylines. It's also why OddsShopper's own de-vigged board is stacked with "Under 0.5 hits" value on Monday: the market is underpricing how many bats go quiet against this slate of arms. Get to the plays fast, and I'll flag the one home run longshot Lindy kept coming back to at the end.
One vocabulary note, because it changes how you tail this: a lean is a game Lindy likes but hasn't bet, an official play is one he fired, and the sizing (quarter unit, 0.3 units, half unit) tells you the conviction. Don't treat a lean as a bet that was made.
George Kirby — one of the featured players on today's slate.
In Summary
- The Card Opener: Mariners–Rangers (George Kirby vs. Kumar Rocker) Over 7.5, sized around a half unit, one of Lindy's most confident plays of the day.
- Two Strikeout Plays: Zack Wheeler (PHI) Over 7+ strikeouts (0.3 units, taken as it steamed from plus money to even), and a Max Scherzer (TOR) strikeout ladder (half unit total) against a Nationals lineup stacked with lefties.
- The Moneyline He Fired: the New York Mets, backing rookie lefty Zack Thornton at a plus-money number that "got nuked" from a small favorite, half a unit.
- A First-Five Run Line: the New York Yankees F5 behind Max Fried against Noah Schultz and the White Sox.
- The Longshot He Loves: Tyler Stephenson (CIN) to homer at a long plus-money price in a top home run park with great hitting weather.
- OddsShopper's Live Board (its own de-vigged numbers, not Lindy's plays) sees its best edge of the night on Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 hits at +200 (Bet365), roughly a 10.7% edge, in a slate full of hitless-bat value.
Watch The Video
Lindy builds this card game by game with the OddsShopper MLB odds screen open the whole way. Watch it in his own words: Watch on YouTube.
Mariners–Rangers: The Over That Opens The Card
Lindy fired George Kirby vs. Kumar Rocker Over 7.5 and sized it around a half unit, one of the numbers he was most confident in all day. His read isn't that both arms are bad; it's that the price is beatable. The total sits at 7.5 or 8 nearly everywhere, and the whole game is finding the most advantageous rung and paying the smallest vig for it. On the substance: he doesn't buy Kirby priced as an elite arm right now (his RA9 and wRC+ allowed are both creeping up), and while Rocker has improved against lefties, the Mariners handle right-handed pitching far better than left. In a lineup with real bats near the top, that's enough offense to clear a low number even in Arlington. Shop the exact total on the MLB moneyline and totals board before you take it, because the difference between 7.5 and 8 is the whole bet.
The Strikeout Plays: Wheeler Now, Scherzer As A Ladder
Zack Wheeler is the cleaner of the two. Lindy has been a Wheeler backer for years, is riding a run of 9-, 10-, 11-strikeout games, and flatly didn't understand the opening number on Wheeler Over 7+ strikeouts so he fired 0.3 units and watched it steam from plus money to even money the instant he clicked, which is the CLV confirmation he wants. His only regret was not sizing it heavier.
Max Scherzer, now Toronto's starter, is the opposite kind of bet: a longshot Lindy is making eyes open. Scherzer is 41, his back has been an issue all year, and Lindy expects him to get the doors blown off eventually. Just not necessarily on this one day, visiting Nationals Park to face his old team, with his velocity up nearly a mile per hour and his slider sharp in his last Triple-A rehab start at Buffalo. Washington will roll out seven or eight lefties, and he put a half unit total into a Scherzer strikeout ladder, a quarter unit on the low 4+ rung and smaller pieces up the longer-priced 5+ and 6+ tiers. These are low strikeout numbers on purpose. The value is in the fat plus-money prices, not in expecting vintage Scherzer. You can price both arms side by side on the live strikeout board.
Mets Moneyline And A Yankees First-Five
The one moneyline Lindy fired is the New York Mets, and it's a price story. Rookie lefty Zack Thornton has only four big-league starts but grades out with the fourth-best "stuff+" on the entire slate, and the Mets' number got nuked from a small favorite down to a plus-money underdog price on FanDuel, a line move Lindy read as the market undervaluing New York at home. The other side helps: he expects heavy regression from the opposing veteran (Martín Pérez), whose sub-3.5 RA9 he doesn't believe holds. Half a unit, more aggressive on a moneyline than he usually is the night before.
He also leaned into the first-five market, which he's been building out specifically to isolate the two starters and dodge shaky bullpens. On the Yankees–White Sox game he's laying the Yankees F5 run line behind Max Fried against Noah Schultz. Fried came back off the IL airtight (five innings, seven strikeouts, one hit in his return), and the White Sox lineup's only real threat comes from the left side. Same logic as the Nationals first-five he cashed over the weekend.
Tyler Stephenson: The Home Run Longshot He Kept Circling
Here's the payoff I promised up top. Lindy said he had never once clicked Tyler Stephenson's name this season, and then did, for the first time, on Monday. The case is a clean stack of the outliers that matter for a home run bet: Cincinnati is one of the best home run parks in baseball, the hitting weather is excellent (90 degrees, humid, wind helping right-handed pull power), and Stephenson just got bumped to the five-hole after a two-homer game, facing a homer-prone right-hander with a lot of launch in his own profile. His 91-mph average exit velocity and 17-degree launch angle fit the swing-for-the-fences profile Lindy targets. He opened at a long plus-money price that Lindy thinks is far too generous, so he's on Stephenson to homer as his lottery ticket. Line-shop a longshot like this hard. A plus-money home run number swings dozens of cents book to book on the live home run prop odds.
Monday's Live Board Value (OddsShopper's Own Numbers, Not Lindy's Plays)
Separate from Lindy's card, this is where OddsShopper's de-vigged model sees the best prices on Monday's slate, and it lines up with the pitching-forward read: a full board of "Under 0.5 hits" numbers, the market underpricing how many bats go hitless.
| Player | Market | Best Price | Fair Price | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dillon Dingler | Under 0.5 Hits | +200 (Bet365) | +171 | ~10.7% |
| Denzer Guzman | Under 0.5 Hits | +120 (Bet365) | +101 | ~9.4% |
| Christian Encarnacion-Strand | Under 0.5 Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +171 | ~8.9% |
| Dane Myers | Under 0.5 Hits | +150 (Bet365) | +130 | ~8.7% |
| Luis Robert | Under 0.5 Hits | +175 (Bet365) | +153 | ~8.7% |
| Vaughn Grissom | Under 0.5 Hits | +155 (Bet365) | +136 | ~8.1% |
| Ryan O'Hearn | Under 0.5 Hits | +185 (Bet365) | +164 | ~8.0% |
| Brice Turang | Under 0.5 Hits | +195 (Bet365) | +174 | ~7.7% |
| Kerry Carpenter | Under 0.5 Hits | +132 (Bet365) | +116 | ~7.4% |
| Tyler Stephenson | Under 0.5 Hits | +182 (Bet365) | +164 | ~6.8% |
| Zach McKinstry | Under 0.5 Hits | +140 (Bet365) | +126 | ~6.2% |
| Tommy White | Under 0.5 Hits | +155 (Bet365) | +141 | ~5.8% |
The Dillon Dingler Under 0.5 hits at +200 (Bet365) is the single best de-vigged edge on the board. A fair price of +171 against a takeable +200 is a 10.7% edge, the exact gap between price and true probability that Lindy hammers as the only thing that matters. And notice the callback: Tyler Stephenson shows up here too, his Under 0.5 hits at +182 grading as a 6.8% value, the mirror image of Lindy's home run longshot on the same bat. They don't contradict. One is a fat-priced power lottery ticket; the other is the base-rate play that a hitless night is likelier than the market implies. Both are live on the player hits board.
Leans Without A Fired Bet
- Diamondbacks–Pirates: a Mitch Keller (PIT) Under 3.5 strikeouts look Lindy is staying off. The prices are too short in one of the worst hitter's parks in baseball despite wind blowing out at PNC.
- Orioles Game (Kyle Bradish): an NRFI he ran the data on but won't bet, with wind blowing in 12–14 mph from right to hold down lefty power.
- Cubs–Cardinals: a lean to the Over 9.5, two starters he called "egregiously bad," but tempered by lower humidity and higher barometric pressure in St. Louis.
- A Debut Home Run Longshot Vs. Jack Perkins: Lindy called a newly acquired bat's long-priced homer number "potentially my favorite play on the entire day" against a reverse-split righty who gives up big power to the right side, but it's contingent on the lineup being confirmed.
- Brewers-Game K-Ladder Lean: a strikeout-ladder look built around an arm that misses bats against Milwaukee's lefty-heavy lineup, just a lean until Monday's lineups confirm.
Monday's Fired Plays At A Glance
| Play | Market | Stake |
|---|---|---|
| George Kirby / Kumar Rocker | Over 7.5 Total | ~Half unit |
| Zack Wheeler (PHI) | Over 7+ Strikeouts | 0.3 units |
| Max Scherzer (TOR) | Strikeout Ladder (4+ / 5+ / 6+) | Half unit total |
| New York Mets | Moneyline (Plus Money, Over ATL) | Half unit |
| New York Yankees | First-Five Run Line (Fried) | ~Half unit |
| Tyler Stephenson (CIN) | To Hit A Home Run (Long Plus-Money) | Longshot |
Run any multi-leg version through the OddsShopper Parlay Builder so every leg still has to clear on its own, and if you're carrying a bonus bet from any of Monday's books, run it through the free bet converter before you burn it on a plain favorite.
FAQ
Why is Lindy betting Max Scherzer to strike out hitters at 41 years old? On Lindy's own show ("Leans, Likes and Locks" on the OddsShopper channel), he was clear he doesn't expect vintage Scherzer, and expects him to get hit hard eventually. The bet is a one-day, plus-money strikeout ladder against a Nationals lineup rolling out seven or eight lefties, with Scherzer's velocity up nearly a mile per hour in his last rehab start. The value is in the fat prices on low strikeout numbers, not in projecting an ace.
What is Lindy's most confident play on Monday's card? The Mariners–Rangers Over 7.5 (Kirby vs. Rocker), sized around a half unit, one of his most confident numbers, built on the total being beatable rather than either arm being elite.
Is the Tyler Stephenson home run bet an official play? Yes. It's a long plus-money longshot Lindy fired for the first time all season, based on a top home run park, great hitting weather, and Stephenson's power profile after a bump to the five-hole. OddsShopper's board separately grades his Under 0.5 hits as value. A longshot HR and a base-rate under are different bets on the same bat.
Why is so much of the card strikeout props and totals instead of moneylines? Lindy read Monday as a pitching-forward slate, so the edge is in isolating starters (first-five, strikeout props) rather than trusting full-game moneylines and bullpens. He fired only one moneyline, the Mets.
Get These Numbers Before They Move
Strikeout and home run props swing hard from book to book, and Monday's de-vigged board already shows real value across a slate of hitless-bat unders. The Dingler, Encarnacion-Strand and Robert numbers above all clear a real edge right now. Shop them on the OddsShopper MLB odds screen, and follow Lindy's card on Tails to see exactly what he fires each day.
Get 50% off your first week or month of OddsShopper Pro with code BABYLINDY50 → (OddsShopper Pro also carries a 7-day free trial.) That's the same odds screen Lindy uses to shop DraftKings, FanDuel and Bet365 against each other in real time.
