Lindy's MLB picks for August 10, 2026: this was Eric Lindquist's card for August 10, 2026, and that slate has been played, so the plays below are the record of that night. As of September 4, 2026, Lindy's Leans, Likes & Locks runs daily through the season; today's full slate, with every book's price on every game, is on the live MLB odds screen.
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Eric Lindquist came into Monday's 15-game board riding a green weekend, three straight strong pitcher-prop days that pulled him out of a brutal stretch that included a Thursday dud. His card for the start of the week is seven official plays: a small stake on Toronto's top of the order, a fade of a punchless Orioles lineup, an under on a lefty-on-lefty total in Anaheim, a Jake McCarthy stolen base, an over on a hot-weather total, a Logan Henderson strikeout play, and an Astros moneyline. Just as telling is what he wouldn't touch: a plus-money Mets angle he kept off the card over rain risk, and a Phillies-Cardinals game he's actively staying away from.
Logan Henderson — one of the featured players on today's slate.
The Quick Answer
Lindy's Monday, August 10 card has seven official plays: a 0.3-unit stake on the Toronto side (Nathan Lukes atop the order), Dean Kremer and the Twins at plus-money or better against a punchless Orioles lineup, the Angels-Rangers total under 8.5 at even money, a Jake McCarthy stolen base at plus-250 (fair value closer to plus-225), an over 9.5 total in the Brewers-Rays game at minus-115, Logan Henderson over 5.5 strikeouts at plus-122, and the Houston Astros moneyline. He passed on a Mets-Braves lean over rain and stayed off the Andrew Painter-Hunter Dobbins game entirely. The full breakdown of all seven plays, plus the two he wouldn't fire, is below.
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Lindy built this card live on the OddsShopper channel, working through all 15 games on Monday's board one at a time. If you'd rather shop these numbers yourself while you watch, OddsShopper Pro is free to try for 7 days.
The Plays At A Glance
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) and Toronto's top of the order, 0.3 units, vs Sonny Gray (BOS)
- Dean Kremer (MIN) and the Twins side, plus-110 or better, vs the Baltimore Orioles
- Angels-Rangers Total under 8.5, even money at Novig
- Jake McCarthy (COL) to steal a base, plus-250 at Bet365
- Brewers-Rays Total over 9.5, minus-115 (not the same number as 10 unless it's minus-105 or better)
- Logan Henderson (MIL) over 5.5 strikeouts, plus-122, vs the San Diego Padres
- Houston Astros moneyline vs the San Francisco Giants
He also flagged two spots he wouldn't fire: a Mets-Braves game where Christian Scott (NYM) is the better arm at plus money against Bryce Elder (ATL), but a 44% chance of rain kept it off his card, and the Andrew Painter (PHI) vs. Hunter Dobbins (STL) game, where Painter's short-rest workload made him want to stay away entirely. Those stay leans, not plays. We only credit Lindy here with what he actually fired.
Toronto's Hitting Environment Carries Nathan Lukes
The headline matchup of the night is a get-back spot: Sonny Gray (BOS) gets Toronto again after this same lineup blitzed him for a third-inning meltdown two starts ago, and Lindy is leaning back into that same lineup rather than away from it. With the roof likely open, 76% humidity, and only a mild rain chance, conditions favor the bats. Nathan Lukes (TOR) projects back into the leadoff spot after Toronto ran a lineup oddity out there recently, and a leadoff hitter in a good hitting environment against a pitcher who's already been hit hard by this same team is exactly the kind of repeatable, small-stakes spot Lindy likes. He put 0.3 units on the Toronto side of this one. By his own admission, he's probably under-sizing the edge here relative to what the numbers say, but a quarter-to-a-third unit is how he treats a lean he trusts without loving.
The Same Idea, Two Time Zones Over: Fading Baltimore's Power Outage
That same logic, back a suppressive park against a hitter's weakness, shows up even more clearly in Minnesota. Dean Kremer (MIN) is walking into a revenge start against his former team, the Orioles, in his first outing at Target Field, a park that plays down for the exact thing that's hurt him all year: lefty power (and a fair amount of righty power too). Baltimore, on paper, is built to hit right-handed pitching, with bats like Gunnar Henderson and Colin Cowser going deep this year. Instead, this Orioles lineup has been striking out at a rate that doesn't match the personnel. Lindy is only slicing off a small piece of this one, plus-110 or better on Kremer and the Twins side, and he says flat out he should be sized in heavier given the edge he's modeling. But the read is the same: a suppressive home park plus an opponent that's underperforming its own profile against exactly this kind of pitching.
The Two He Wouldn't Fire
Discipline cuts both ways on a 15-game slate, and Monday's board had two clear examples of Lindy passing instead of forcing a play. The Mets side against Bryce Elder (ATL) is a good bet on paper, Christian Scott (NYM) is the better pitcher and the Mets get plus money for it, and Elder has been overdue for regression most of the season. But six of Monday's games start after 9 p.m. Eastern, and this one carries a 44% chance of precipitation. Lindy said outright it's kind of weird this isn't on his card, but he's not interested in getting caught in an in-game weather delay he can't do anything about. It stays a lean.
The other pass is more about uncertainty than weather. Andrew Painter (PHI) is coming back on four days' rest after a hamstring injury, and his strikeout prop is sitting at 14.5, a number Lindy doesn't find enticing either direction. Painter only threw 63 pitches in his last outing, which argues for a fuller workload this time, but his fastball has been one of the worst shapes in baseball, and only his slider profiles well against pieces of the Cardinals lineup. Hunter Dobbins (STL) has pitched well enough on the other side that Lindy isn't interested in laying the Phillies moneyline either. The market lines up with that hesitation: the board's fair number on Dobbins' strikeout total sits at under 3.5 at minus-155, with minus-150 the best price currently available at Bet365, a tight enough line that it reads as a coin-flip-quality arm, not a clear side. Lindy's answer for this whole game is simple: stay away.
An Under In The Desert, Then A Stolen Base In Colorado
The evening window brings a lefty-on-lefty spot in Anaheim between the Angels and Rangers, two teams that strike out against southpaws at a similarly high clip (26% and 25%, respectively) despite a combined offense that's better than that sounds. With neither pitcher's strikeout or outs props even posted yet at the time of recording, Lindy went straight to the total: under 8.5 at even money, available broadly across Novig and the major prediction markets. His one rule on this number: 8.5 at even money and 10 are not the same bet, and if you're going to play the alternate number, it needs to come in at minus-105 or better to be worth it.
Out in Colorado, the play is a swing, not a total. Jake McCarthy (COL) is riding a heater, a two-homer game over the weekend and a season where his speed has been the more consistent asset than his newer pop. He's a Rockies regular getting to run against a Diamondbacks battery that's allowed 10 stolen bases with a caught-stealing rate around 2.7%, which Lindy reads as a real green light rather than a small-sample fluke. The number on the board is plus-250 at Bet365; Lindy's own fair number is closer to plus-225.
Worked Example: What 25 Points Of Price Actually Means
A plus-250 price implies roughly a 28.6% chance of hitting. Lindy's fair number of plus-225 implies closer to 30.8%. That two-point gap in implied probability, on a bet he's sizing as a small piece of his card, is the entire edge, the sportsbook is paying him a better price than his own model says the swing is worth. It's the same math behind every de-vigged number OddsShopper's tools surface: shop the same bet across enough books, and gaps like this one show up on their own.
Two Hot-Weather Totals To Close The Night
Freddy Peralta (MIL) and Jacob Lopez (TB) get a ballpark that's "looking pretty nuclear," in Lindy's words: wind blowing straight out at 10 mph, 93 degrees, and more humidity than that ballpark has carried in its recent series. Jacob Lopez survives more on deception than swing-and-miss stuff as an extreme fly-ball arm, and Tampa Bay's lineup barely strikes out at all, a bad combination for a pitcher who needs the ball to stay in the park. Lindy's number is over 9.5 at minus-115. He was explicit that the standard alternate total of 10 is not an equivalent play unless it's priced at minus-105 or better; treat them as two different bets, not one number with two labels.
Milwaukee shows up again a few hours later against San Diego, after a last-minute starter swap put Logan Henderson (MIL) on the mound instead of the pitcher originally announced. Henderson carries a 32.3% strikeout rate and a 2.82 SIERA, second-best on the entire slate behind only his own rotation-mate, against a Padres lineup that gives up strikeouts as readily as most in baseball. Lindy's play: Logan Henderson over 5.5 strikeouts at plus-122.
In the late window, Houston gets a moneyline look against a Giants lineup that's missing real pieces of its everyday order. Hayden Wesneski (SF) has been individually effective, but the lineup around him "looks completely incompetent" by Lindy's read, and the Astros shouldn't need to lean on their top bullpen arms to close this one out after coasting through their last outing. That's a moneyline play on Houston, priced on the strength of the roster gap rather than the pitching matchup alone.
| The Play | The market | The number |
|---|---|---|
| Nathan Lukes (TOR) / Toronto | Top-of-order lean, Toronto side | 0.3 units |
| Dean Kremer (MIN) / Twins | Twins side vs Baltimore | Plus-110 or better |
| Angels-Rangers | Total under 8.5 | Even money (Novig) |
| Jake McCarthy (COL) | To steal a base | Plus-250 (Bet365), fair ~plus-225 |
| Brewers-Rays | Total over 9.5 | Minus-115 |
| Logan Henderson (MIL) | Over 5.5 strikeouts | Plus-122 |
| Houston Astros | Moneyline vs Giants | — |
The Marquee Game Is Where He Has No Play At All
The game everyone's actually tuning in for, Tarik Skubal's second start in Dodger blue after the trade, against Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) and the Royals, is also the one game on the entire board where Lindy has no number he likes. He's got the Dodgers around minus-270 and the Royals around plus-270, which lines up almost exactly with where the market has it priced, meaning there's no real gap to bet into. That's the same discipline that kept him off the Mets-Braves rain game and the Painter-Dobbins matchup: when his number matches the market's number, there's nothing to bet, no matter how big the storyline is. What he is watching, without a play yet, is the bottom of that Dodgers order behind Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Freddie Freeman (LAD) against a Royals pitching staff led by Noah Cameron, who's already shown real vulnerability to left-handed power this year. For now, that's a lean he's calling a placeholder, not a play.
Between the Toronto get-back spot, the Twins-Orioles power mismatch, and two hot-weather totals bracketing the night, Monday's card leans hard into the games where the environment does real work, and stays off the ones where the price is either too close to fair (Dodgers-Royals) or too exposed to a variable he can't control (rain in Atlanta, a short-rest workload in St. Louis). The full live board, including every pitcher's strikeout and outs prop as they post, is on our MLB strikeout props today page, and the contact side of the slate is covered in our MLB hits props today breakdown.
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