The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks for the Week 9 Sunday slate, November 8: Austin Ekeler (WAS) Higher 30.5 rushing plus receiving yards against the Rams at 1 p.m. ET, and Jordan Love (GB) Higher 22.5 completions at New England at 4:25 p.m. ET. One is a workload bet in a backfield that just lost its second body, the other is a quarterback who has cleared his number four weeks running.
Sunday's Underdog Fantasy card is a volume card. Neither play asks a player to do anything he has not already done this season; both ask the game script to hand him the chances, and both scripts point the same way. Washington's injury report wrote the first one. New England's spread wrote the second.
The Picks: Week 9 Sunday, November 8
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Austin Ekeler (WAS) | Rushing + receiving yards | 30.5 | Higher |
| Jordan Love (GB) | Passing completions | 22.5 | Higher |
Austin Ekeler Higher 30.5 Rushing Plus Receiving Yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) was already on injured reserve, and now passing-down back Jeremy McNichols (WAS) has joined him there, per ESPN's roster page as of Saturday. That leaves Rachaad White (WAS) and Ekeler as the Washington backfield going forward.
The matchup is not the reason to make this play. The Rams get Myles Garrett (LAR) back off the injury report to line up next to Aaron Donald (LAR), a pairing that sounds silly even typed out, and a Washington back is not going to run through that front. The case is the touches. Ekeler has been ramped up slowly off his Achilles injury, and with two backs gone the ramp is over. This is the week to take the whole portfolio, before the market catches on that this could be a strict two-man split from here.
| Date | Opponent | Carries | Rush yds | Rec | Rec yds | Rush + rec |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 4 | vs IND | 4 | 29 | 1 | 11 | 40 |
| Oct. 11 | vs NYG | 3 | -1 | 1 | 15 | 14 |
| Oct. 19 | at SF | 1 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 7 |
| Nov. 1 | vs PHI | 8 | 36 | 0 | 0 | 36 |
Austin Ekeler's 2026 game log, per ESPN box scores, dates in Eastern time. He made his season debut on October 4.
Last week against Philadelphia is the row that matters. Eight carries, 36 yards, and that was with McNichols still handling the passing-down snaps. Ekeler cleared 30.5 on carries alone, and the only other time he got five touches, his season debut against Indianapolis, he cleared it again with 40. The two quiet games were three-touch and four-touch afternoons, and those are the nights the injury report just took off the table. Add the catches McNichols was getting and the number sits where half of a two-man backfield should clear it most weeks, Garrett or no Garrett.
The books split this market in two, so see how they price each half before you enter: the live NFL rushing plus receiving yards prop odds board lines every sportsbook up side by side, and the NFL Underdog picks strategy guide covers how to compare a pick'em line to the books' numbers before you take a side.
Jordan Love Higher 22.5 Completions
Full respect to this New England secondary, and to Christian Gonzalez (NE) in particular. The pick is still the pick, because Love has been cooking. He has cleared 22.5 completions in each of his last four games, and the last two of those came with Josh Jacobs (GB) back in the fold, so the running game being healthy did not take the ball out of his hands.
| Date | Opponent | Completions | Attempts | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct. 4 | at TB | 22 | 30 | W |
| Oct. 11 | vs CHI | 25 | 31 | W |
| Oct. 18 | vs DAL | 23 | 41 | W |
| Oct. 25 | at DET | 27 | 45 | L |
| Oct. 29 | vs CAR | 30 | 41 | W |
Jordan Love's 2026 completions by game, per ESPN box scores, dates in Eastern time. The last four all cleared 22.5.
The Detroit game is the one I keep coming back to. Green Bay lost, Love completed 60% of his throws, and he still got to 27 because the Packers had to throw 45 times. That is the script Sunday sets up. Green Bay is the road underdog in New England, and an underdog throws more than it did in the weeks it was protecting a lead. The Tampa game, 22 of 30 in a win the Packers controlled, shows what the under looks like: a comfortable afternoon where he never needed the volume. New England is built to take that afternoon away.
The Gonzalez angle actually works for the Higher side. If the Patriots keep a lid on the Packers' big plays, with Christian Watson (GB) the deep threat they most need to cap, the result is shorter drives and more throws, and completions is a counting stat that likes shorter throws. Love should soar over this number yet again. The sportsbooks post the same market, so check where each book hangs the number on the live NFL passing completions prop odds board before you enter.
If the pick'em format is new to you, player props betting explained covers how a completions line is graded and why a stat line on Underdog is a different bet than the same number at a sportsbook.
Watch the full breakdown of both plays:
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