The cheapest ticket to a big payout on any slate is a home run prop. Below are the bats we like in Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels, with the best price on each.
On the board for Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels: Jorge Soler, Jake Bauers, Mike Trout, Jackson Chourio, Zach Neto, Garrett Mitchell are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jorge Soler (LAA) | +506 | NoVig | 16.5% | 4 |
| Jake Bauers (MIL) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 36 |
| Mike Trout (LAA) | +559 | ProphetX | 15.2% | 36 |
| Jackson Chourio (MIL) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 36 |
| Zach Neto (LAA) | +573 | Kalshi | 14.9% | 31 |
| Garrett Mitchell (MIL) | +631 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 13.7% | 36 |
| William Contreras (MIL) | +686 | ProphetX | 12.7% | 35 |
| Jo Adell (LAA) | +685 | Kalshi | 12.7% | 36 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 2, 2026 · 01:40 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Angel Stadium: park index 106.8 · wind 8 mph.
- Jo Adell (LAA) — 17% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 65% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +685 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +637 · ProphetX +588 · NoVig +614
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — 21% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 8 mph · punishes changeups and splitters, and that is 44% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +441
- Mike Trout (LAA) — 20% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +529 at ProphetX | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +529 · NoVig +488
- Zach Neto (LAA) — 25% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 65% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +434 · ProphetX +549 · NoVig +441
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — 10% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph · punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 37% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +488
- Brice Turang (MIL) — 7% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 8 mph · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +944 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +944 · ProphetX +911 · NoVig +900
- Andrew Vaughn (MIL) — 10% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +686 · NoVig +590
- William Contreras (MIL) — 12% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 5 mph. (model confidence A)
- books: best +700 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +686 · NoVig +614
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes these plays:
- Under 7.5 Total Runs (-105) Bet now
- Over 0.5 Total Runs 1I (-106) Bet now
- Los Angeles Angels Over 0.5 Total Runs 1I
- Los Angeles Angels +1.5 Run Line (-149) Bet now → Novig
- …plus 3 more on their full Tails card.
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Milwaukee Brewers -1.5 Run Line (-120). Bet now
- FullProofSportsBetting on Tails likes these plays:
- MoneyBall Metrics on Tails likes Milwaukee Brewers Moneyline (-112). Bet now
- CDR Betting on Tails likes Los Angeles Angels 1.5 Run Line (-162).
- OddsShopper PRO on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on Milwaukee Brewers @ Los Angeles Angels. CDR Betting, CharlieChip, DFSnDonuts Picks, FullProofSportsBetting post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
