A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres.
On the board for San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres: Rafael Devers, Bryce Eldridge, Willy Adames, Heliot Ramos, Manny Machado, Ty France are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael Devers (SF) | +400 | Unibet | 20.0% | 36 |
| Bryce Eldridge (SF) | +490 | Kalshi | 16.9% | 36 |
| Willy Adames (SF) | +550 | PointsBet | 15.4% | 36 |
| Heliot Ramos (SF) | +575 | Unibet | 14.8% | 35 |
| Manny Machado (SD) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 36 |
| Ty France (SD) | +691 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 12.6% | 36 |
| Jackson Merrill (SD) | +691 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 12.6% | 36 |
| Gavin Sheets (SD) | +944 | Kalshi | 9.6% | 32 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 2, 2026 · 01:40 PM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Petco Park: park index 97.8 · wind 6 mph.
- Manny Machado (SD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 53% of what this starter throws · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +573 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +573 · Polymarket +500 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +525
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +461 at ProphetX | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +461 · NoVig +426
- Jackson Merrill (SD) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 44% of what this starter throws. (model confidence A)
- books: best +685 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +685 · Polymarket +584 · ProphetX +666 · NoVig +641
- Rafael Devers (SF) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +398 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +398 · Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +392 · NoVig +365
- Heliot Ramos (SF) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +550 at BetRivers | exchanges: Polymarket +381 · ProphetX +485 · NoVig +426
- Gavin Sheets (SD) — baseline power edge. (model confidence A)
- books: best +823 at ProphetX | exchanges: ProphetX +823 · NoVig +770
- Willy Adames (SF) — this starter's mix is the awkward kind for him. (model confidence A)
- books: best +488 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +406 · ProphetX +466 · NoVig +488
- Ty France (SD) — sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence A)
- books: best +641 at NoVig | exchanges: Polymarket +465 · ProphetX +568 · NoVig +641
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- Prophet on Tails likes Under 8.5 Total Runs (-120). Bet now
- Gubabets on Tails likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-103). Bet now → DraftKings
- PrizePick Champions on Tails likes Manny Machado Over 1.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-122). Bet now → PrizePicks
- BGrebbs on Tails likes these plays:
- BetOnRage on Tails (#2 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes San Diego Padres Moneyline (-144). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes these plays:
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Under 8.5 Total Runs (-113). Bet now
- OS Lottos on Tails likes Drew Cavanaugh Under 0.5 Total Hits (+105). Bet now
More from these experts on San Francisco Giants @ San Diego Padres. BGrebbs, BetOnRage, CharlieChip, DFSnDonuts Picks, PrizePick Champions , Prophet post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
