The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks for Monday Night Football, October 26, Cowboys at Eagles (8:15 p.m. ET at Lincoln Financial Field): Dak Prescott (DAL) Higher 23.5 pass completions and Tanner McKee (PHI) Lower 209.5 passing plus rushing yards. Both teams are 2-4, Dallas is a 4.5-point road favorite on ESPN's line with the total at 44.5, and the Eagles start McKee with Jalen Hurts (PHI) on injured reserve.
The Picks: Monday Night Football, October 26
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dak Prescott (DAL) | Pass completions | 23.5 | Higher |
| Tanner McKee (PHI) | Passing + rushing yards | 209.5 | Lower |
Dak Prescott Higher 23.5 Pass Completions
Eric's read: the Eagles defense is a shell of what it was, 24th in EPA per dropback, around a 44 percent success rate allowed and an 88.2 passer rating against, middle of the road this season and nothing like the Philadelphia we are used to. Prescott, meanwhile, is throwing a career-high 41 times a game and completing more than 27, and the Cowboys have a habit of playing to their opponent's level in prime time. The line has corrected for Dallas being favored, which is the whole opportunity: the volume and the efficiency should both be there.
The game log, per ESPN: 22 of 34 against the Giants, 26 of 31 against Washington, 25 of 40 against Baltimore, 32 of 45 against Houston, 24 of 42 against Tampa Bay and 34 of 54 against Green Bay last week. That is five of six games over 23.5, 246 attempts in six games, and the one miss was the opener.
Tanner McKee Lower 209.5 Passing Plus Rushing Yards
Off the main path, as Eric says: this combination carries a correlation discount on Underdog, down to 3.24x, and he is taking it anyway. Dallas has been poor on defense, but Saquon Barkley (PHI), questionable with a hamstring on ESPN's report, is expected back to carry the load, and the passing game is missing DeVonta Smith (PHI) and Dontayvion Wicks (PHI), both out. McKee has shown no threat with his legs in his brief NFL time, so the rushing side of the combination adds nothing, and 209.5 total yards is the line Eric wants the under on.
The game log, per ESPN: McKee's one start this season was 26 of 45 for 215 yards with one carry for no gain in the loss at Carolina last week. Hurts went on injured reserve October 19, and Smith and Wicks were ruled out Friday. Barkley's status is the one thing to check at inactives; if he sits, Philadelphia throws more, and that is the risk in this one.
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