The Quick Answer
Two Underdog NFL picks for Monday Night Football, November 2, Bears at Seahawks (8:15 p.m. ET at Lumen Field): D'Andre Swift (CHI) Lower 16.5 rush attempts and Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) Higher 17.65 fantasy points. Chicago is 5-2 and Seattle 4-3, the Seahawks are a 3.5-point home favorite on ESPN's line with the total at 46.5, and Seattle is coming off a 20-3 win over Kansas City in which Kenneth Walker III (KC) came home and went nowhere.
The Picks: Monday Night Football, November 2
| Player | Stat | Line | Call |
|---|---|---|---|
| D'Andre Swift (CHI) | Rush attempts | 16.5 | Lower |
| Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA) | Fantasy points | 17.65 | Higher |
D'Andre Swift Lower 16.5 Rush Attempts
Eric's read: Seattle has been suffocating on defense the past few weeks, and after what it did to the Chiefs it is not hard to picture Swift bottled up here too. Ben Johnson would love to establish the run and play from ahead, but if either of those fails, Roschon Johnson (CHI) comes back into the plan as the pass-catching back the way he was used in Weeks 5 and 6, not the 14 percent of snaps Eric has him at from Week 7. The top-down number backs it up: lower than 16.5 carries is minus-250 and up across the industry, so the standard minus-115 on a two-pick card at Underdog is the best price available on this play.
The game log, per ESPN: Swift's carries this season are 18, 16, 20, 15, 9, 16 and 22, so he has landed under 16.5 in four of seven games, including both of the 16s, with the 22 coming last week against New England. Roschon Johnson had five carries and five catches on seven targets against Green Bay in Week 5 and 13 carries against Atlanta in Week 6, then two carries and no targets in Week 7. Seattle allowed 3 points to the Chiefs and 17 to the Broncos in its last two games. The thing to watch at inactives: Kyle Monangai (CHI) is out with a thumb injury, which thins the Bears' backfield behind Swift and Johnson.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba Higher 17.65 Fantasy Points
Eric's read: he has deployed this one a lot this year, and he considered the touchdown instead, but Underdog's correlation discount on that pairing pushed him to Smith-Njigba's whole portfolio. He has been the best wide receiver in football, he faces a league-average Bears pass defense by just about any metric, and Chicago has played PFF's 22nd-ranked strength of schedule, so the defending champion's star gets a defense that may be worse than advertised. Volume and touchdown upside in one package.
The game log, per ESPN: Smith-Njigba has 58 catches on 78 targets for 867 yards and 8 touchdowns in seven games, never fewer than five catches or 76 yards. On Underdog's half-point-per-reception scoring that is 22.2, 38.0, 29.8, 10.1, 20.3, 19.4 and 26.8 fantasy points, over 17.65 in six of seven, with the one miss the 76-yard game against the Chargers in Week 4. Last week against Kansas City he had 9 catches for 150 yards and a touchdown plus two carries for 13 yards.
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