A home run prop lives and dies on the number, so the price matters as much as the pick. Here are the bombs worth backing in Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves.
On the board for Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves: Michael Harris II, James Wood, CJ Abrams, Matt Olson, Drake Baldwin, Ronald Acuña Jr. are the hitters priced to go deep, each with the best price and book across 20+ sportsbooks below.
The board ranks by market price, not by our conviction — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. The tailable plays from real experts sit below it, and the same prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another, so the OddsShopper home run odds screen is where to check the live number.
See the full slate: all of today's best home run bets, ranked by price, are in our MLB Home Run Picks Today hub.
Home Run Board for This Game
| Player | Best HR Price | Best Book | Implied | Books |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Harris II (ATL) | +337 | Pick6 | 22.9% | 1 |
| James Wood (WSH) | +377 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 21.0% | 34 |
| CJ Abrams (WSH) | +456 | Kalshi | 18.0% | 33 |
| Matt Olson (ATL) | +471 | NoVig | 17.5% | 34 |
| Drake Baldwin (ATL) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 34 |
| Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 35 |
| Michael Harris (ATL) | +529 | Kalshi | 15.9% | 33 |
| Dylan Crews (WSH) | +579 | PolymarketUS 🎁 | 14.7% | 33 |
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The number that matters is the best price for the side you want, not who sits highest on the board — shortest odds means most likely to homer, not best value. Compare each price to the rest of the field on the OddsShopper home run odds screen; when one book is a notably longer number than the others, that is where the line-shopping value is.
The Yard's Model Read On This Game
Model board updated August 2, 2026 · 10:35 AM ET. The table above is the market; this is the model — park, wind against each hitter's spray pattern, the starter's pitch mix, and lineup slot, computed for every priced bat tonight. It is context, not a pick.
Tonight at Truist Park: park index 113.9 · wind 9 mph.
- James Wood (WSH) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 33% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips. (model confidence C)
- books: best +376 at NoVig | exchanges: Kalshi +373 · ProphetX +358 · NoVig +376
- Matt Olson (ATL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 36% of what this starter throws. (model confidence B)
- books: best +456 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +456 · ProphetX +446 · NoVig +456
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) — 18% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 8 mph · punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 34% of what this starter throws · bats 2, so he gets 4.2 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +529 at Kalshi | exchanges: Kalshi +529 · ProphetX +510 · NoVig +506
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — punishes four-seam fastballs, and that is 36% of what this starter throws · bats 1, so he gets 4.3 trips · sees the starter a 3rd time. (model confidence B)
- books: best +500 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +451 · NoVig +456
- Luis García Jr. (WSH) — punishes sinkers and cutters, and that is 33% of what this starter throws. (model confidence C)
- books: best +458 at DraftKings | exchanges: ProphetX +451 · NoVig +400
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — baseline power edge. (model confidence C)
- books: best +450 at Bet365 | exchanges: Kalshi +425 · ProphetX +421 · NoVig +441
- Austin Riley (ATL) — 16% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 8 mph. (model confidence B)
- books: best +641 at NoVig | exchanges: ProphetX +637 · NoVig +641
- Dylan Crews (WSH) — 22% of his damage flies pull-side, and the wind is blowing out that way at 8 mph. (model confidence C)
- books: best +625 at Bet365 | exchanges: ProphetX +480 · NoVig +471
Exchange prices are two-sided event contracts (Kalshi, Polymarket) quoted beside the sportsbooks because they carry little to no hold — the honest comparison. 18+; availability varies.
Expert picks for this game
These are real plays from OddsShopper experts you can follow on Tails:
- John the Bettist on Tails likes Daylen Lile Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+624). Bet now → Kalshi
- EMac on Tails likes Washington Nationals -1.5 Run Line (+174). Bet now → NoVig
- CharlieChip on Tails likes Atlanta Braves Moneyline (-113). Bet now
- FOTP on Tails likes Reynaldo López Under 15.5 Total Pitching Outs (-130). Bet now
- Stacks Covers on Tails (#8 on the MLB Hot Streak leaderboard) likes Over 9 Total Runs (-130).
- BetOnRage on Tails (#2 on the MLB Most Profit leaderboard) likes Washington Nationals Moneyline (+150). Bet now
- DFSnDonuts Picks on Tails likes these plays:
- BGrebbs on Tails likes CJ Abrams Over 0.5 Total Home Runs (+490). Bet now → Kalshi
- JediModi on Tails likes these plays:
More from these experts on Washington Nationals @ Atlanta Braves. BGrebbs, BetOnRage, CharlieChip, DFSnDonuts Picks, FOTP, JediModi, John the Bettist post full premium cards on Tails. See their cards on Tails.
Want the full slate, not just this game? Lindy's picks for every MLB game today breaks down the whole board in his own words, and the MLB Home Run Cheat Sheet ranks tonight's best HR prices across every book.
How to Bet Home Run Props the Smart Way
- Shop every book. The same home run prop can pay 100+ points more at one book than another. OddsShopper scans 20+ sportsbooks so you always take the best number — see the live home run board.
- Mind the price, not just the name. A great hitter at a short price can be worse value than a mid-tier bat the market is sleeping on. Compare the price to the field before you fire.
You don't have to handicap this — OddsShopper does the work for you. The matchup matters far less than the price: OddsShopper reads the sharp sportsbooks that set the fair line, checks every price for an edge, and surfaces only the +EV plays across every market at the click of a button — no hours of research, and no deep knowledge of the sport required. Every play it flags is backtested against real historical results, so you can see how the number has actually performed before you bet. Try OS Pro free for 7 days, and code SMARTBET20 takes 20% off your first payment: Start your free trial.
