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Friday MLB Picks & Parlays: Bet the Braves to Win Tonight’s Exciting Matchup at Plus-Money Value (September 30)

Our last Friday of the regular season feels bittersweet. Super excited for the MLB postseason to start up, but we still have a few more days to capture another parlay. This Prop Party parlay features up to FIVE Player Prop bets that’ll give you the best chance to win based on our Stokastic simulations. The prop party is the most popular betting combo within the Stokastic community and Alex “Awesemo” Baker – the world’s #1 daily fantasy player – uses these almost exclusively when he’s looking for an edge. This article will be using the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.

MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/30

Aaron Civale O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET

The Guardians have locked up the No. 3 seed in the American League as they have won 18 of their last 21 games. They will want to keep the momentum going into the postseason. Aaron Civale will start for the Guardians tonight for the third-straight game since coming back from an injury. His pitch count has increased the past two games, as he had seven strikeouts in his last start while only throwing 75 pitches against the Rangers. The Guardians have a six-game home series against the Royals to end the season. A cupcake matchup for Civale, as the Royals are only implied for 3.3 runs. In his last start against the Royals, Civale recorded six strikeouts in seven complete innings while only allowing one earned run. With a career-best 23.2% strikeout rate this season, he is in a great spot to get over this prop line. Stokastic projects him for exactly 4.5 strikeouts, but the odds are very clearly in favor of him reaching the over. Civale has an xWin rate on this over prop at 61%, which leads this Prop Party parlay.

Best MLB Pick Today: Aaron Civale OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-150)

Brewers vs. Marlins | RISK FREE BET

Despite a 4-2 loss to the Marlins last night, the Brewers are still only 0.5 games back of the last wild card spot in the National League. They will send their ace Corbin Burnes to the mound tonight in hopes of a rebound performance as he has been hit around recently. Burnes has allowed five earned runs in three of his last six starts, which is uncharacteristic. He does pitch much better at home, but the Marlins have won four of their last six games and will counter with their ace Sandy Alcantara. What a season it has been for Alcantara. He has posted a career-best across the board in ERA, wins, WHIP and HR/9 allowed. Expect this game to be an epic pitcher’s duel, which will give an advantage to the under, having hit already in seven of the Brewers’ last eight games. Not only is the under in play, but so are the Marlins at +1.5. They have won or lost by one run in nine of their last 10 games. The Brewers certainly need this game more, but the Marlins have been great lately and Alcantara has won or lost by only one run in eight of his last 10 starts.

Best MLB Pick Today: Marlins +1.5 (-150)

Angels vs. Rangers | RISK FREE BET

Another road underdog we will take with the +1.5 runs is the Rangers in their matchup against the Angels in their last road series of the season. Similar to the last two props, this is a heavy favorite prop as the Rangers will start Glenn Otto, who is 1-0 in two starts against the Angels this season. In his first full season as a starter, Otto has a decent 6-9 record with a 1.34 WHIP. Not out of this world numbers, but he seems to do well in this matchup as the Angels still lead the league with the highest strikeout rate. On the Angels’ side, they will send left-hander Reid Detmers to the mound, who has allowed four earned runs in three of his last four starts. This will be Detmers’ fifth start against the Rangers this season. In his four previous starts, Detmers has a whopping 6.30 ERA while allowing four home runs and 14 earned runs, which is the most he has allowed by far against any other team. This may be a pretty gross game to watch, but the Rangers have played well in this matchup and should cover this prop line if not win the game outright tonight.

Best MLB Pick Today: Rangers +1.5 (-145)

Domingo German O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | RISK FREE BET

The second strikeout prop we are targeting features Yankees starter, Domingo German. This is only his 13th start of the season, but he is having his best year since he was a rookie. Through 12 starts, German has a 3.30 ERA and a career-best 1.12 WHIP. The Yankees have won nine of their last 10 games as they host the Orioles for their last home series until the playoffs. Pitch count is the major concern with this spot for German, as he only threw 66 pitches in his last start. However, despite the limited pitch count, he still accumulated five strikeouts. This will be the first time that German has faced the Orioles this season, but it would be nice to see him get a little stretched out in what will be his second-to-last regular-season start. For what it’s worth, he has recorded at least five or more strikeouts against the Orioles in each of his last five starts. The Yankees have also won eight straight home games. Low pitch count or not, German should get us over this strikeout prop line.

Best MLB Pick Today: Domingo German OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-120)

Braves vs. Mets | RISK FREE BET

The game of the night and the best series remaining in the regular season is this matchup between the Braves and Mets. The Mets currently lead the Braves by one game in the NL East division, but this three-game series could turn the tide. In their last four-game series in Atlanta, the Braves won three of those four games. The Braves moneyline is the way to go, especially given the value at plus-money. Max Fried will start for the Braves as he leads the team in ERA and innings pitched. He has a 13-7 record with a career-best 1.02 WHIP. In his four starts against the Mets this season, Fried has allowed two earned runs in every start. This will likely be another pitcher’s duel as the Mets will counter with their ace Jacob deGrom. It has been a struggle recently for deGrom, as he has allowed 11 earned runs in his last 15 innings pitched. His ERA has nearly doubled in those last three starts and this will only be his second start against the Braves this season. In his last start against them, he allowed three earned runs and suffered his first loss of the season. Playing at home, this environment will be electric. I’ll gladly take the Braves at home on the moneyline.

Best MLB Pick Today: Braves Moneyline (+110)

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