The Dog Days Parlay had another victory last night, so let’s make it two in a row tonight. There are four props below that provide a variety of bets from player props, total runs and spread picks. The variety helps get this parlay to an expected odds number that is very high while staying in the positive expected ROI and win-rate zone. This piece will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today.
MLB Picks and Parlays Today 9/14
Patrick Corbin O/U 3.5 Strikeouts| BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Patrick Corbin leads the Washington Nationals in innings pitched and is second with 120 total strikeouts. It’s been a tough year for not only Corbin but also for the Nationals, which is the only team that has yet to get to 50 wins this season. In Corbin’s case, he has allowed a career-high 6.30 ERA while accumulating a league-worst 18 losses.
To no surprise, he is a home underdog against the Orioles tonight who are implied for 4.7 runs. Even if the Orioles knock him around a little bit, this is a strikeout prop that Corbin can easily reach. In his lone matchup against the Orioles this season, Corbin had six strikeouts despite only reaching four innings pitched. Through 28 starts, Corbin is averaging 4.3 strikeouts per start. Stokastic projects Corbin for 4.1 strikeouts in this spot and a 63% xWin rate for him to reach the over. Even though Corbin has struggled this season, this strikeout prop line is way too low with the Orioles, who have the 12th-highest strikeout rate as a team.
Best MLB Pick Today: Patrick Corbin OVER 3.5 Strikeouts (-154)
Seattle Mariners vs. San Diego Padres | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
The Mariners have won 10 of their last 14 games as they are in a very tight wild card race in the American League. On the flip side, the Padres have lost five of their last nine games and are in their own wild card race. The Mariners have a 4.3 implied run total in their matchup against Padres right-hander Mike Clevinger. In his first full season with the Padres, Clevinger has a 4.13 ERA and a career-high 1.44 HR/9 allowed.
He has paired that with a career-low 20.4% strikeout rate while allowing nine earned runs and three home runs in his last 8.1 innings pitched. The Mariners should have no trouble hitting Clevinger as they will counter with Luis Castillo, who has averaged 7.3 strikeouts per game since coming to the Mariners at the trade deadline. Castillo is 2-1 with his new ball club and has only allowed 10 earned runs through 31.2 innings pitched. With the pitching edge favoring the Mariners, they have a great chance to get another victory before an off day tomorrow.
Best MLB Pick Today: Seattle Mariners Moneyline (-149)
Texas Rangers vs. Oakland Athletics | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
This Texas Rangers – Oakland Athletics game features two teams who are well out of the playoff picture. They will close out their short two-game series tonight with the Rangers favored by a comfortable margin. The Rangers are implied for over one run better than the Athletics as they will start Dane Dunning, who ranks second on the team in innings pitched and strikeouts. Through 27 starts, Dunning has a very respectable 1.06 HR/9 allowed and a 38.1% hard-hit rate, which is way better than last season.
The Athletics have scored the second-least amount of runs in the league and rank tied for last in wOBA. It’s a very good spot for Dunning. Rookie J.P. Spears will start for the Athletics in his seventh game with his new team since coming over from the Yankees. Before getting rocked against the White Sox in his most recent start, Spears allowed just eight earned runs through 27.1 innings pitched. It may not look like it at first glance, but this game could secretly become a pitcher’s duel, with two very capable pitchers in great spots against below-average offenses.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total UNDER 8.5 Runs (-110)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers | BetMGM RISK FREE BET
Getting to 10 runs in this game may seem like a lofty goal, but the Diamondbacks are implied for 4.5 runs, while the Dodgers are implied for a slate-high 5.2 runs. The bulk of the runs scored in this game will obviously come from the Dodgers, who lead the league by a landslide with 766 runs this season. They draw a matchup against Diamondbacks starter Zach Davies, who has a 4.09 ERA and a 1.39 HR/9 in his first season with the team.
In three starts against the Dodgers this season, Davies is 0-2 while allowing 11 earned runs through only 13.1 innings pitched. After getting shutout in back-to-back games by Dodgers starters Clayton Kershaw and Tyler Anderson, the Diamondbacks get a gift with their matchup against rookie Michael Grove, who will start his third game of his career. In only 9.1 innings pitched, Grove has a 4.82 ERA and a 1.82 WHIP. It is not like the Diamondbacks can’t score. They rank 13th in the league this season despite being nine games under .500. This prop provides a good amount of value to top off this parlay.
Best MLB Pick Today: Total OVER 9.5 Runs (+100)
