After months of patient waiting, the 2022-23 NBA season will finally begin next week. Just days from now, fans can finally log back into their League Pass accounts for nightly basketball action. NBA bettors looking to place a few-last minute futures wagers should get their action down ASAP — the NBA Most Improved Player betting odds will likely shift once the season begins in earnest. Tailing the below NBA Most Improved Player (MIP) Award predictions should offer a solid return.
2022-23 Most Improved Player Betting Odds & Predictions
2022-23 Most Improved Player Odds
LaMelo Ball | +3200 at FanDuel
The MIP Award has been one of the NBA's least predictable prizes over the past 10 years, although a few factors are consistent. First, only players with at least two seasons under their belt have won MIP. The award usually goes to early-career players -- three third-year players and four fourth-year players have won it. That said, seventh-year Goran Dragic won it in TKKT. Over the last 10 years, only players between the ages of 22 and 27 have won the award. The average age of the MIP winner through that span is 23.9.
Second, the award usually goes to a high-volume scorer with good supplemental counting stats. Only two MIP winners of the last 10 years scored fewer than 20 points per game: Pascal Siakam in 2018-19 and Paul George in 2012-13. Only one MIP winner added fewer than six rebounds per game: C.J. McCollum in 2015-16. No MIP finished with fewer than three assists per game.
Third, the nature of improvement means that it's hard to maintain. Just one NBA MIP Award winner over the last 10 years had earned more than one vote in the preceding year: Giannis Antetokounmpo. So unless bettors feel comfortable backing one of last year's MIP candidates to have a meteoric rise into superstardom, they should probably stay away.
LaMelo Ball checks all three of the above boxes. He is a third-year player entering a high-volume role who did not earn a vote for the MIP Award last year. Ball averaged 20.1 points, 7.6 assists and 6.7 rebounds per game last year, all of which could tick upward given Charlotte's offseason roster turnover. Losing Miles Bridges will create more scoring and rebounding chances for Ball. The Hornets didn't really add much in the offseason aside from 20-year-old center Mark Williams, who could become a solid lob threat for Ball to boost his assist numbers.
Another reason to target Ball is that the Hornets seem unlikely to keep their roster intact much longer. Neither Gordon Hayward nor Terry Rozier really fit this team's window, so getting rid of them would make sense for the franchise -- and would give Ball additional chances to stuff the stat sheet. Although a losing season for the Hornets may hurt Ball's chances somewhat, Brandon Ingram still won the award in 2019-20 despite the Pelicans finishing 30-42. FanDuel is listing Ball's betting odds to win the NBA's Most Improved Player Award at 32-1 despite him sitting at just 25-1 elsewhere, so head there for the best deal on the market.
Tyrese Haliburton | +2500 at FanDuel
Filtering out players who earned multiple MIP Award votes last season tosses a few popular options by the wayside: Jordan Poole, Tyrese Maxey, Anfernee Simons and Jalen Brunson. Filtering out second-year players removes Cade Cunningham, Jalen Green, Scottie Barnes and Evan Mobley from the pool. Among the narrow set of remaining options, Tyrese Haliburton looks like a sharp bet for the MIP Award at odds of 25-1. Every featured sportsbook other than FanDuel has Hali at odds of 14-1 or shorter.
Haliburton enters his third season -- his first full campaign with the Indiana Pacers -- as the lead offensive initiator. He has a solid set of weapons to work with, including center Myles Turner and rookie wing Bennedict Mathurin, but no players who will crowd him out. Shooting guard Buddy Hield should help Haliburton's assist numbers until the veteran likely gets shipped off before the trade deadline as well.
One reason to back Haliburton is that it'll be easy for him to build on his performance from last year. He averaged 17.5 points, 9.6 assists and 4.3 rebounds in 26 games with the Pacers. But because he spent 51 games with the Kings, he averaged only 15.3 points, 8.2 assists and 4 rebounds per game for the season. If Haliburton can improve upon his performance as a Pacer by even the slightest amount, he should finish with season averages well above anything we've seen from him in his career, making him a sharp pick to win the NBA Most Improved Player Award.
