Adam Silver and the NBA have done their best to avoid conflicts with the NFL and Thursday Night Football this year. The result has been minimal basketball action on Thursdays. Bettors have just one game on today’s slate: a Mavericks-Pistons tilt. Unsurprisingly, the Mavericks are sizeable road favorites for the matchup in the NBA odds. Bettors looking for a positive return on Thursday’s contest should tail these Mavericks-Pistons picks and predictions — or check out OddsShopper’s tools for other sharp plays.
NBA Odds: Mavericks-Pistons Odds
[osoddswidget]
Desperate Dallas Needs Some Wins
Are the 10-10 Dallas Mavericks better than their record indicates? Some factors suggest they are. The Mavericks rank a solid 10th in net rating (+1.9). Their offense ranks 10th (112.7) and their defense 12th (110.8). However, the Mavericks find themselves ranked a lowly eighth in the Western Conference.
However, the Mavericks have relied a bit too much on Luka Doncic at guard. They are 8.2 points more efficient when he sees the floor, which has been 73.2% of their total minutes this season. Although the Mavericks have plenty of talent at forward and wing, they lack alternatives at point guard. Spencer Dinwiddie, their primary option, has struggled — the Mavericks are 19.5 points less efficient with him on the floor. The situation has gotten so bad that the Mavericks just signed Kemba Walker to their roster.
Dallas has compensated for its lack of depth by slowing down. The Mavericks have been the NBA’s slowest team this year and play four fewer possessions per game than the median team. That’s made them a tough matchup for player prop bettors — the Mavericks have surrendered the third-fewest points per game to shooting guards (20.1) and the fewest to centers (15.4). They have also allowed the second-fewest rebounds to centers and the fifth-fewest assists to point guards.
Detroit Motoring on to the Lottery
Not much has gone right for the Detroit Pistons this year. Last year’s first overall pick, Cade Cunningham, went down with an injury early in the year and is sidelined indefinitely. This year’s fifth overall pick, Jaden Ivey, suffered a knee injury and is questionable for tonight’s contest. The Pistons already had to play multiple games without bigs Marvin Bagley III and Isaiah Stewart this year as well.
At 5-18, it should come as no surprise that the Pistons rank 29th in net rating (-8.6). Their offense ranks 25th (109.2) but their defense ranks 29th (117.8). The Pistons have shot poorly this year — they rank 29th in effective field-goal percentage (50.4%). Their struggles are likely to continue until Cunningham returns but could persist until next season.
The Pistons play at a league-average pace but have imploded against certain positions. The Pistons have allowed the second-most points per game to both point guards (26.8) and power forwards (24.1). The Pistons have allowed the fourth-most rebounds per game to shooting guards as well (7.1). Detroit can’t protect the rim, either — the Pistons have surrendered the second-most points in the paint this year (55) and just gave up 68 to the Knicks. Detroit’s defense remains sufficiently vulnerable to target with player props.
Final Mavericks-Pistons Prediction & Pick
Neither of these teams have excelled on the glass. The Pistons rank 24th in team rebound rate (48.8%) and the Mavericks rank 29th (47.6%). The two players with the best individual rebound rates who will see the floor tonight are Christian Wood (30.9%) and Luka Doncic (25.7%). With JaVale McGee out of the rotation and Wood coming off the bench, Doncic’s primary competition for boards has been Dwight Powell, a relatively unremarkable rebounder.
Volume is the strongest reason to target Doncic’s rebounding props. He averages a team-high 14.4 rebound chances per game, largely because of his immense workload. The Mavericks are unlikely to feature Kemba Walker much tonight, if at all, so Doncic should see his standard usage in Detroit. A blowout would likely see Doncic’s minutes reduced, but the Mavericks have only two double-digit wins to their name this season. Bettors should wager enough to profit a full unit on Doncic to come down with at least nine boards, something he has done in 10 of his 19 appearances this year.
Final Mavericks-Pistons Pick: Luka Doncic Over 8.5 Rebounds (-115 for 1.15 Units) at FanDuel
