“Fade the public!” is one of the most common refrains in sports betting. However, bettors have to know where to look if they want to identify the teams that everybody but the sharps are targeting. With a loaded 10-game slate on tap, here are the key NBA betting splits and public teams for this evening’s action.
Public NBA Betting Splits | Dec. 14
Hawks-Magic Betting Splits: Over Trending Up
The Atlanta Hawks and Orlando Magic will square off early Wednesday night. The Hawks have listed Trae Young as questionable and are playing their third game in four days. However, Young just got some rest after sitting on Tuesday and has a solid shot to play against an Eastern Conference opponent.
The total for this contest sits at 224.5 after opening at 224. Unsurprisingly, the over has drawn a considerable share of the action: 80% of the cash has come in on it on just 53% of the tickets. Bettors eager to tail the sharps can still find some value here as Young’s status remains unclear.
Heat-Thunder Betting Splits: Sharps Fading Miami
The Miami Heat haven’t looked like the same team that made its way to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. Although Heat fans can blame lengthy injury reports, Miami didn’t struggle to overcome shrunken rotations as much last year. The Heat haven’t played since Monday but will play the Indiana Pacers tomorrow night, which could affect their decisions on which players to use here.
The Heat opened at -5 but have seen that number tick down to -2.5. Oklahoma City has drawn 85% of the cash on just 56% of the tickets. While some of the value has gotten bid off the board, the number could move further should the Heat’s final injury report include concerning information.
Trail Blazers-Spurs Betting Splits: Big Money on Portland
The Portland Trail Blazers opened at around -5, but that number quickly moved to -6.5 and now sits at -7.5 in most places. The Trail Blazers are currently the NBA’s best team against the spread at 18-9, so bettors might just be chasing a high-return trend.
Still, Portland has drawn 76% of the cash on only 34% of the tickets. Money has continued to pour in on Portland even at -7.5, so bettors can still get in on what big-money bettors targeted earlier today at most books.
Cavaliers-Mavericks Betting Splits: Don’t Touch the Over
The Cleveland Cavaliers and Dallas Mavericks are two the NBA’s two slowest-paced teams, but the total for their contest opened at 215 and now sits at 216.5. The trends conflict in this one: Cleveland is 18-11 to the under, while Dallas is 17-10 to the over.
The over has drawn 66% of the bets but only 44% of the cash, which suggests the sharps are comfortable fading the public money and playing a number that feels a bit high given how slow these teams have played — and how well the Cavaliers have defended the paint.
Timberwolves-Clippers Betting Splits: Public Wants the Over
No market has a wider betting split than tonight’s Timberwolves-Clippers matchup. The total, which sits at a solid 223.5, has seen 74% of tickets come on the over. However, a whopping 70% of the cash has come in on the under.
This number is likely to move if trends persist. The Timberwolves and Clippers both field defenses that rank top 10 in points in the paint allowed per game, which could hurt since both teams are without important ranged playmakers like Karl-Anthony Towns and Norman Powell.
