The 3-1 Washington Wizards host the lowly 1-4 Indiana Pacers in a rematch of last week’s affair. The teams faced one another in their season opener, with Washington winning 114-107. Indiana will be playing with Myles Turner this time around, after he made his season debut for the team on Wednesday. The game total is 229 and Washington are currently favored by 5-5.5 points. Below, we’ll focus on the best Pacers – Wizards props, including fading Tyrese Haliburton.
Best Pacers – Wizards NBA Props | October 28
Kyle Kuzma O/U 1.5 3-Pointers
Kyle Kuzma is in a favorable spot to go over his 1.5 3-pointers prop. Kuzma started the season red-hot, averaging 15 field-goal attempts and 21 points per game through the Wizards’ first four games of the season. He averages 2 3’s per game, with roughly 40% of his FG attempts (6.3) being 3-pointers. He’s shooting 32% from deep so far, slightly below his 33.9% career average and last year’s 34.1% mark. While Kuzma only scored a single 3-pointer in Washington’s last couple of games (1-2 vs Cleveland, 0-5 vs Detroit), he had 4 3’s vs Chicago and 3 3’s and 10 3-point attempts vs this Indy team last week. Considering Indiana’s perimeter defense to start the year, and despite Myles Turner’s presence this time around, another such outing is certainly possible.
Opposing teams convert on 45.8% of their 3-point attempts (most in the league) and score an average of 16.2 3’s per game playing vs Indy so far this season, most in the association. Opposing teams also average 35.4 3-point attempts against the team, which is tenth-highest. Notably, Indiana allows opposing power forwards to make the fourth-most 3’s per game – 3.58. While the team’s defense should improve with Turner in the mix, he is just one player.
In all, tonight’s matchup vs Indiana presents a good opportunity to buy low on Kuzma’s 3’s prop (best odds as of time of writing are -140).
Best Prop: Kyle Kuzma OVER 1.5 3’s (-140 at PointsBet)
Monte Morris O/U 3.5 Rebounds
The odds for Monte Morris to go over his 3.5 rebounds prop in today’s matchup are very enticing. He is averaging 26 minutes, 7.3 rebound chances, and 4.8 rebounds per game so far this season. While Morris’ rebounding rate is out to decrease as the season progresses (his current 6.6 rebounds per 36 minutes rate is 3 rebounds higher than last year’s career best mark), his success rebounding the ball to start his Wizards’ tenure has been impressive. He went over today’s line in 3 of 4 games, including a 6-rebounds game against this Pacers team last week. He also had 6 rebounds in Washington’s last game vs Detroit, a team that like Indiana, allows an excess of rebounds to opposing guards.
IND is below average in rebounds allowed to opponents (45.2 per game, eleventh-worst), though Turner’s return should make them better at that department. Still, the team allows roughly 15 rebounds per game to opposing guard – 7.57 to point guards (third-most) and 7.20 to shooting guards, eighth-most. Considering the plus money odds we’re getting for Morris to have another strong rebounding performance (best odds as of time of writing are +120 at PointsBet) and that he’s projected to grab 4 rebounds in tonight’s affair, taking the over on his rebounds props seems like a great bet.
Best Prop: Monte Morris OVER 3.5 Rebounds (+120 at PointsBet)
Tyrese Haliburton O/U 14.5 Rebounds +Assists
Tyrese Haliburton is a promising, talented player and is currently among the early frontrunners for winning the most improved player award, deservedly so. He is averaging 32.5 minutes, 22.6 points, 10 assists, and 4.2 rebounds per game through the Pacers’ first five games of the season, going over 14.5 combined rebounds and assists in 3 of the 5 games the team played thus far this season. However, one of the two game he didn’t was against this Washington team, who has been fairly impressive defensively to start the year (fifth-best defensive rating).
The Wizards are doing a phenomenal job limiting opponents’ assists, allowing 17.8 assists per game to opposing teams, fewest in the league. Specifically, they allow only 5.36 assists per to opposing point guards, which is also a league best mark. In other words, opposing teams are having a hard time distributing the ball against this Washington defense. Furthermore, the Wizards are also a good rebounding team, having the sixth-highest rebounding percentage (52%) while limiting opposing teams to 42.3 rebounds per game, seventh-fewest in the association. Notably, they allow the fourth-fewest rebounds per game to opposing point guards – 4.79. Altogether, Washington is a nightmare matchup for opposing point guards early this season.
In all, this is an unfavorable spot for Haliburton, playing against a slow-paced, defensive-minded team. Haliburton is projected for 4 rebounds and 9.9 assists tonight, slightly below his combined rebounds plus assists prop. As such, and while it’s never fun to fade an exciting player like Haliburton, taking the under on his rebounds plus assists prop should prove profitable tonight. Check out our OddsShopper tool for more NBA props and bets.
Tyrese Haliburton UNDER 14.5 Rebounds + Assists (-130 at FanDuel)
