There are few things better than Friday night football under the lights. That’s especially true here, as Louisville (0-1) and Central Florida (1-0) both have a lot to prove. This is the first time that the two schools will meet on Central Florida’s home turf in Orlando.
Louisville is the first of two Power Five opponents that the Knights will host over the next three weeks. The Knights are looking to win their ninth straight home game while the Cardinals are hoping to get back on track after an embarrassing loss to Syracuse in Week 1.
Here are the best bets and predictions for Friday night’s battle.
Louisville vs. Central Florida Predictions and Betting Picks
UCF took care of business in their opener against FCS opponent South Carolina State, covering the 43.5-point spread in a 56-10 victory. Quarterback John Rhys Plumlee, an Ole Miss transfer, balled out in his UCF debut. Plumlee threw for 308 yards and completed 20 of 31 passes, including four touchdowns and no interceptions. He also rushed for 86 yards and a touchdown.
While the Knights were impressive, Louisville and their heralded dual-threat quarterback Malik Cunningham struggled in the Carrier Dome against Syracuse. The game environment won’t get much easier as the famous Bounce House will surely be rocking on Friday night.
Is Louisville a Deserving Underdog?
Central Florida opened as 6-point favorites against Louisville. Despite 67% of the bets coming in on the Knights, the line has still dipped to 5.5, with indicators looking like it might move down even more.
On the surface, Central Florida looked good last week and Louisville fell flat on their face in a very winnable game. It makes sense that the public is all over the Knights here. But should they be?
Losing 31-7 to Syracuse never looks good, but when looking through the advanced box score, there is plenty of reasons for Louisville to be optimistic. The Cardinals passed the Syracuse 40-yard line five times and came away with only seven points. Their offense still gained 6.2 yards per play, but they shot themselves in the foot by turning the ball over three times. Everything that could have gone wrong did go wrong for Louisville. Expect them to fix some of those issues this week.
It was all rainbows and sunshine for the Knights last week as they easily took down South Carolina State. However, there’s not a ton to take away from that game, and Cunningham and the Cardinals bring a different talent level than an FCS level opponent.
Rhys Plumlee looked the part in last week’s win, but he struggled against Power Five opponents when he saw a couple starts in 2019 at Ole Miss. It will be interesting to see how he fares this week against much tougher competition.
Either way, Plumlee is a major downgrade from who Central Florida had at the quarterback position last season. Louisville won their matchup a year ago 42-35, behind a big day from Cunningham. The signal caller threw for 265 yards and a touchdown while rushing for another 99 yards and two scores.
Cunningham is the known commodity in this one. For Central Florida to win this game and cover the spread they will need Rhys Plumlee to prove that last week wasn’t a fluke.
Central Florida’s Defensive Issues
The Knights ranked 88th in rushing yards allowed per game and 78th in rushing yards allowed per attempt last season, On top of that, they are replacing three starters on the defensive line, including first-team All-AAC defensive end “Big Kat” Bryant. Central Florida ranked 74th in Defensive Line Yards, 70th in Rushing Success Rate Allowed and 118th in Rushing Explosiveness Allowed. Those numbers are a recipe for disaster against Cunningham, who is perhaps the top dual-threat quarterback in all of college football.
Cunningham’s rushing ability should open up the entire offense for Louisville. He’s got a couple of new weapons to work with this year as transfer RB Tiyon Evans (Tennessee) and WR Tyler Hudson (Central Arkansas) both had solid debuts for the Cardinals in their loss to Syracuse. Evans finished with 89 yards on only 13 carries while Hudson had eight receptions for 102 yards.
Louisville vs Central Florida Prediction
Simply put, Louisville is being tremendously under valued in this spot and there’s a reasonable case to be made that the Cardinals are just the better team, not even considering the point spread. With the public continuing to hammer Central Florida at over a 2-to-1 clip, the time to buy low on Louisville is now. Don’t be surprised if both of these teams are 1-1 after Friday night.
