Pittsburgh might be the biggest question mark in the country this season.
Some love their returning offensive production, which includes all five offensive line starters (145 career starts) and their top three rushers.
But others hate the departures of Kenny Pickett, five of the top seven receivers and, most importantly, offensive coordinator Mark Whipple.
West Virginia enters its fourth year under Neal Brown, and things have been largely disappointing. They return very little on the defensive side of the ball but picked up J.T. Daniels from Georgia to work with offensive coordinator Graham Harrell.
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Week 1 Picks
West Virginia Weak at Linebacker
The Mountaineers lost their top five tacklers. Linebackers Josh Chandler-Semeno, VanDarius Cowan and Scottie Young are all gone, leaving a gutted linebacker room that has just two players with any college experience. They picked up linebacker transfers, but they’re from North Dakota State and Syracuse. The depth is an issue.
The secondary outlook is slightly better. Charles Woods is the only player back with any starts, but they added some impact transfers. The Mountaineers were solid at avoiding explosive plays last year.
The strength of the team is clearly in the trenches. Look for an improved defensive line that should jump up the leaderboards in Havoc. The offensive line returns all five starters (107 career starts), alongside depth. The Mountaineers lose one of the best running backs in school history with Leddie Brown gone, but there’s tons of backfield depth.
There are tools around Daniels for him to make a jump, but will he do it? He was brilliant in games against South Carolina and Vanderbilt last season, but he was clobbered by Clemson’s defensive line. Daniels will obviously face a downgrade in talent heading to the Big 12, but who knows if he can compete against teams like Baylor and Texas.
Pittsburgh Has Great Roster for Slovis and Cignetti
All five offensive line starters return for Pitt, with a whopping 145 career starts. They’ll block for a deep running back room that has three starters returning who combined for almost 1,700 yards last season.
The Panthers lost just one guy on the defensive line and return five linemen who combined for 26 sacks last season, including First-Team All-ACC tackle Calijah Kancey. Moreover, seven starters return on defense, which includes three of their top four tacklers. There are some depth concerns in the linebacker room, but the secondary should be top-notch after a season in which they finished top 25 in passing points per attempt allowed.
This is actually a loaded roster with only two question marks, but replacing Pickett and Whipple is a massive ask. Those questions will fall on the shoulders of USC transfer Kedon Slovis and Frank Cignetti.
Slovis has a high ceiling. He tossed for over 400 yards against a stout Utah defense (86.4 PFF grade) but also threw three picks in a game against Oregon State. He has all the tools around him, so perhaps he’ll be shielded.
This is Cignetti’s second stint as the Pitt coordinator, and he spent the last two years as the Boston College coordinator. Offenses seem to stagnate underneath Cignetti, and the play calling can get stale. Boston College couldn’t get out of standard downs last season (99th in success rate, 108th in explosiveness), and their passing play metrics floundered because of all the third-and-longs (106th in success rate).
One thing is clear: Pitt is going to emphasize running the ball. Between Cignetti, an uber-talented offensive line, a deep backfield and three of the top-four wide receivers leaving, Pitt must lean heavier on the run game.
West Virginia vs. Pittsburgh Pick
This Pitt roster is absolutely loaded. And while the wide receiver room lost talent, they still return their second-most productive pass catcher in Jared Wayne and talented tight end Gavin Bartholomew. Adding Akron transfer Konata Mumpfield is huge too.
West Virginia is in flux, specifically in the linebacker core. If the talented Pitt offensive line gets a push, the Panthers backfield can carve up the second level. The Panthers should roll through standard downs and hopefully create some explosive run plays.
SP+ makes this spread Pitt -13.2. Play Pitt at anything under double digits.
Best NCAAF Bet: Pittsburgh -7 (-105) at WynnBet | Playable to -9.5 (-110)
